ANTALYA, Turkey — The recent promise of direct talks between Ukraine and Russia in Istanbul has significantly altered the landscape of European diplomacy, particularly efforts aimed at engaging the United States in imposing new sanctions on Russia in the event of a failure to establish an immediate 30-day ceasefire. Just as European officials were beginning to sense a shift in skepticism from President Donald Trump’s administration regarding Russia’s intentions, the unexpected offer from President Vladimir Putin to hold talks has complicated the situation.
The surprise meeting anticipated this Thursday in Istanbul has raised doubts about the effectiveness of the sanctions plans, according to insights from nine European, Ukrainian, and U.S. diplomats who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the discussions. While these talks are viewed as a potential breakthrough in efforts to end the ongoing conflict, the lack of clarity on Russia's delegation has led to Ukrainian hesitance in attending. Adding to the uncertainty, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that there were no plans for a meeting with U.S. officials, further clouding expectations surrounding Thursday's discussions.
Last weekend, leaders from France, Britain, Germany, and Poland visited Kyiv to advocate for a ceasefire. During this visit, they engaged in a phone call with President Trump, who expressed his willingness to exert pressure on Russia, potentially via sanctions, as reported by two diplomats. However, Putin's proposal for talks, which received Trump's endorsement, shifted the momentum, leaving all parties scrambling to coordinate meetings in Istanbul amidst unclear agendas and delegations.
“There has been coordination with the Americans on sanctions, and there have been positive signals. But ultimately, it depends on the political climate at the moment,” stated a European official. Despite this, European leaders continue to advocate for coordinated sanctions targeting critical sectors such as finance and energy to compel the Kremlin to cease hostilities. However, doubts linger about Washington's commitment to follow through, with European officials regarding Putin's call for dialogue as potentially a stalling tactic.
The diplomatic activity in Turkey highlighted the necessity for all parties to navigate the complexities of U.S. politics while striving to avoid being seen as obstacles to Trump's ambition for a resolution. The ongoing two-day meeting of NATO foreign ministers, which commenced on Wednesday in Antalya, has been heavily influenced by news of the impending talks. This meeting marks a significant development in negotiations that have been stagnant for weeks, representing the first direct engagement between Kyiv and Moscow since the onset of Russia’s invasion in 2022.
On the U.S. front, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, along with special envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, are expected to travel to Istanbul on Friday. However, Russia has yet to confirm whether it will meet with them, maintaining ambiguity about its delegation—whether it will consist of high-level officials or bureaucrats—leading to increased frustration from Ukraine, which has sent its foreign minister to the NATO gathering in Antalya.
U.S. and European officials intervened late Tuesday night to convince Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to reconsider attending the talks, despite his frustrations regarding the evolving situation. Initially hesitant, Zelensky was urged to send a delegation of senior aides, including Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak and Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha, to the talks, although he expressed skepticism about their value.
“Zelensky didn’t see the point in attending,” noted one diplomat. Ukrainian officials have yet to confirm their delegation's composition for Istanbul. Witkoff emphasized to Ukrainian representatives that participating in direct talks would be advantageous: if they attended and Russia did not, Moscow would appear unfavorable; if both sides met, it could pave the way for a ceasefire and a potential resolution to the war.
Zelensky continues to advocate for a personal meeting with Putin in Turkey, planning to arrive late Wednesday in Ankara to meet with the Turkish president. “Why meet directly with him [Putin]? Because a serious discussion about ending the violence and the war should occur with the individual who ultimately makes decisions in Russia,” stated a Ukrainian official. “Everything hinges on whether Putin is willing to come to Turkey. Based on his response, the Ukrainian leadership will determine the next steps.”
While aboard Air Force One, Trump commented on the uncertainty surrounding Putin’s participation in the talks. He noted, “I know he would like me to be there. And that’s a possibility… I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’ll find out.”
With Trump endorsing a Russia-Ukraine meeting, European leaders are now watching closely to see if any tangible outcomes emerge from Thursday's discussions. The European Union recently ratified its 17th package of sanctions against Russia, primarily targeting the so-called “shadow fleet” that circumvents embargoes on Russian oil. There is hope that broader sanctions from both Europe and the U.S. will serve as a warning to the Kremlin against stalling progress.
“There was a time when talks felt futile, but now there seems to be some momentum,” remarked a European diplomat, noting the potential for U.S. pressure on Russia. He also highlighted the unpredictable nature of Trump, suggesting it could keep the Kremlin on its toes. “However, there needs to be a credible threat this time; otherwise, it appears Putin can afford to wait it out.”
French President Emmanuel Macron announced intentions to roll out new sanctions “in the coming days” and in close coordination with the United States if Russia does not agree to a ceasefire. He mentioned that EU officials were in discussions with Trump administration officials and U.S. senators about targeting financial services and the oil and gas sectors. Newly appointed U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew G. Whitaker, stated that “everything is on the table” in the bid to negotiate an end to the conflict. “We will ultimately have to judge President Putin’s commitment to a long-term ceasefire by their actions, not their words,” he told reporters.
When asked whether Washington would implement new sanctions if Russia remains uncooperative regarding the immediate ceasefire, Whitaker replied, “We just have to take this step by step.” He also expressed that Trump has been frustrated with the situation involving both Russia and Ukraine, but from his perspective, “I think we are as close as we’ve ever been” to ceasing hostilities. “However, we need to see how this unfolds.”
This article reflects the evolving dynamics of international diplomacy concerning the conflict in Ukraine and Russia, underscoring the complexities and high stakes involved in achieving a lasting resolution.
