KERR COUNTY, Texas – As families and search crews sift through the debris, mangled trees, and toppled vehicles in Kerr County following the devastating Fourth of July flooding, authorities are grappling with increasing scrutiny over the adequacy of the warnings issued prior to the disaster. As of Sunday, the tragic toll has reached 68 fatalities, including 28 children, due to the severe flooding along the Guadalupe River — an area historically prone to such calamities. The National Weather Service issued a series of flash flood warnings early Friday morning, escalating to rare flash flood emergencies that signal imminent danger.
Officials have maintained that the magnitude of the flooding was unforeseen. During a press conference on Friday, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly revealed that the county lacks a dedicated warning system for the river. When questioned by a reporter about the absence of evacuation orders on Thursday evening, Kelly stated, “We didn’t know this flood was coming.” This admission raises critical questions about emergency preparedness in an area known for its vulnerability to flooding.
To understand the circumstances leading up to this catastrophic event, here is a detailed timeline of the warnings issued:
5:47 p.m. Wednesday, July 2: The Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) activates state emergency response resources in anticipation of flooding across West and Central Texas.Morning of Thursday, July 3: The National Water Center issues a Flood Hazard Outlook, identifying the flash flood potential for Kerrville and surrounding areas, as noted by the Department of Homeland Security.Approximately 1:45 p.m., Thursday, July 3: A Flood Watch is issued for Kerr County.6:22 p.m. Thursday, July 3: The National Water Center warns of considerable flooding risks north and west of San Antonio, including Kerrville.Approximately 8:12 p.m. Thursday, July 3: The Flood Watch is extended.1:14 a.m. Friday, July 4: Flash Flood Warning with a “Considerable” tag issued for Bandera and Kerr Counties, triggering Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEAs) and NOAA Weather Radio notifications.Approximately 2:37 a.m. Friday, July 4: The Flash Flood Watch is extended.3:06 a.m. Friday, July 4: The NWS posts on X about a “very dangerous flash flooding event” occurring across south-central Kerr County into northwest Bandera County.3:32 a.m. Friday, July 4: A River Flood Warning is issued for the Guadalupe River at Hunt.3:28 a.m. Friday, July 4: A Downstream River Flood Warning is issued for the Guadalupe River in Kerrville.3:36 a.m. Friday, July 4: A Flash Flood Warning is issued for south-central Kerr and northwest Bandera Counties.3:56 a.m. Friday, July 4: A new River Forecast Warning is issued for the Guadalupe River at Hunt.4:04 a.m. Friday, July 4: A Flash Flood Emergency is declared.4:23 a.m. Friday, July 4: NWS posts on X that a “PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION and a Flash Flood EMERGENCY is in effect.”5:36 a.m. Friday, July 4: A Flash Flood Emergency for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrville down to Center Point is issued.Local authorities have expressed disbelief at the intensity of the rainfall, which brought the equivalent of several months' worth of rain in just a few hours. “There’s going to be a lot of finger-pointing, a lot of second-guessing and Monday morning quarterbacking,” said Republican U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, representing Kerr County. “There’s a lot of people saying ‘why’ and ‘how,’ and I understand that.”
During the press conference, Judge Kelly reiterated that the community had not anticipated such a catastrophic flood. “We have floods all the time. This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States, and we deal with floods regularly. When it rains, we get water. We had no reason to believe that this was going to be anything like what’s happened here, none whatsoever,” he stated.
Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice shared his own experience, describing how he was jogging along the river at 4 a.m. and noticed nothing amiss. Just over an hour later, at 5:20 a.m., the water level had surged dramatically, nearly trapping him in the park.
In response to this devastating event, President Donald Trump signed a major disaster declaration for Kerr County on Sunday, activating the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to assist in recovery efforts. The president indicated he would likely visit the affected area on Friday to assess the damage personally.
This tragedy has not only claimed lives but also raised critical questions about emergency preparedness and community resilience in the face of natural disasters. As Kerr County begins to heal, the focus will remain on understanding what went wrong and how to better protect its residents in the future.
