The recent round of diplomacy regarding Ukraine reveals much about Russian President Vladimir Putin's current mood and intentions. Firstly, it is clear that he is not prepared to sign a peace deal, at least not at this moment. There are no viable compromises on the table, as noted by Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov following five hours of talks in Moscow with US envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the adviser and son-in-law of former President Donald Trump.
The lack of a compromise should not come as a surprise, particularly given Putin's recent uncompromising remarks. In various statements, he has labeled the Ukrainian leadership as a "thieving junta," accused European leaders of undermining peace efforts, and claimed that Russia maintains the initiative on the battlefield. Notably, Russian state television has aired footage of Putin dressed in military fatigues, poring over maps of the front lines while boasting about military gains—claims that both Ukraine and international observers have largely disputed.
Nearly four years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Putin appears steadfast in his belief that he is winning the conflict. Despite significant losses on the battlefield and the detrimental impact on the Russian economy, he seems to think that this is not the time to negotiate peace. This perception is likely an attempt to project strength to the West, suggesting that nothing can deter him from achieving his objectives.
I have previously likened Putin to a car without brakes, steering wheel, or reverse gear—a vehicle speeding recklessly down the motorway. Four years after the invasion, there are still no signs of this "Putinmobile" slowing down, reversing, or stopping. He aims to convince his opponents that neither European leaders, nor the Trump administration, nor President Zelensky can alter his course. However, just as cars require fuel, countries need financial resources to sustain a war.
Currently, despite facing international sanctions, the Russian government continues to fund its military operations in Ukraine. Yet, economic pressures are mounting. Revenues from oil and gas have been declining, and the budget deficit is expanding. Even Putin acknowledges these economic challenges, citing imbalances within the economy. He recently remarked that in several sectors, production output has not only failed to increase this year but has actually decreased.
The pivotal unknown remains: at what point, if ever, will these economic concerns begin to affect the Kremlin's strategic calculations on the battlefield? As the situation evolves, it will be crucial to monitor how these economic realities might influence Putin's approach to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.