Recent investigations by NPR, PBS's FRONTLINE, and data scientists have uncovered alarming findings regarding Camp Mystic, the site of over two dozen tragic deaths during a Texas flood. The new analysis indicates that more cabins and buildings at this camp are at greater risk of flooding than previously acknowledged by federal authorities.
Maps created by First Street, a climate risk modeling company based in New York City, reveal that at least 17 structures at Camp Mystic are situated in the path of potential floodwaters. This is significantly different from the flood maps produced by FEMA, which have long been criticized for underestimating flood risks across the country. These discrepancies highlight a persistent danger that affects many American communities.
The analysis further indicates that at least four cabins designated for young campers are located in areas identified by FEMA as extreme flood hazards. These areas are characterized by high-velocity and high-depth water movement, underscoring the urgent need for improved flood risk assessments.
For decades, FEMA's flood mapping has relied heavily on data from coastal storm surges and large river flooding, often neglecting critical factors like rainfall and flash flooding. As climate change continues to intensify rainfall patterns, the risk of flooding has escalated dramatically. A recent report by First Street estimated that more than twice as many Americans live in hazardous flood-prone areas than FEMA's maps indicate, leaving homeowners and local officials unaware of their vulnerability.
According to Jeremy Porter, head of Climate Implications at First Street, the underrepresentation of flood risk has both financial and human consequences. While FEMA's maps serve as essential warnings to the public, they also represent one of the few mechanisms through which the federal government can enforce precautionary measures. Homeowners in designated flood-prone areas are often required to implement construction practices that enhance flood resilience, such as elevating their homes.
In recent years, an alarming trend has emerged where properties affected by major disasters often fall outside FEMA's floodplain designations. For instance, during Hurricane Helene's assault on western North Carolina last year, a staggering 98 percent of the damaged homes were not included in FEMA's flood maps. This oversight not only left homeowners without access to flood insurance but also meant that they were not required to build in a flood-resilient manner.
Despite awareness of this issue, FEMA has struggled to address it due to a lack of mandate and funding from Congress. Porter notes the political challenges surrounding flood insurance costs, indicating that the necessity for improved flood coverage is often overshadowed by the fear of increased expenses.
A recent investigation by NPR and FRONTLINE revealed that special interests, including home developers' associations, have lobbied Congress to reduce flood regulations and delay updates to the nation's flood maps. Developers argue that such measures are essential for maintaining affordable housing, yet this argument often compromises public safety.
The impact of outdated FEMA maps is particularly evident along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County. First Street's analysis found only 2,560 homes at risk using FEMA data, while their own data revealed over 4,500 homes actually faced potential flooding. Even when FEMA identifies high-risk flood areas, these warnings frequently go unheeded.
Within the confines of Camp Mystic, NPR discovered that at least eight buildings, including four cabins used for younger campers, are situated in a floodway—the most dangerous section of the floodplain. Floodways are designated as areas where water is expected to flow rapidly during storms, making them inherently hazardous. Jim Blackburn, co-director of the Severe Storm Prevention, Education, and Evacuation from Disaster Center at Rice University, emphasizes that no structures should exist in floodways, and that the risk posed by these areas requires urgent action from Texas officials.
Despite the evident threats, Kerr County officials declined NPR's request for an interview, citing ongoing emergencies. However, in 2020, the county did enact ordinances aimed at tightening building regulations in high-risk areas and preventing development in floodways. Yet, the ongoing issues with flood mapping and mitigation persist.
Chad Berginnis, head of the Association of State Floodplain Managers, pointed out that recent delays in grants and agreements have hindered local efforts to improve flood risk mapping. He highlighted the need for prompt federal funding to enhance flood risk assessments in communities, particularly near Camp Mystic.
Blackburn argues that it is no longer acceptable for officials to label flooding events as rare or unpredictable. While the specific locations of future floods may be uncertain, the overarching risk is well-established. He advocates for reasonable decision-making grounded in the best available science, a critical step toward safeguarding communities from catastrophic flooding.
As climate change continues to exacerbate the threat of flooding, the urgency for improved flood risk management has never been clearer. The revelations surrounding Camp Mystic serve as a stark reminder of the need for better preparedness and awareness to protect lives and property.
