March has officially arrived, heralding the onset of tornado season across the United States. As we move through the week, there is a significant risk of tornadoes impacting the Lower 48 states, driven by a powerful storm system. This system is not only expected to unleash severe thunderstorms but also to bring extreme blizzard conditions to the central and northern Plains, alongside dangerously high fire risks in New Mexico and western Texas.
A band of strong to severe thunderstorms is predicted to develop late Monday, stretching from Oklahoma to Dallas. This system will continue to march eastward over the next 48 hours. By Tuesday, the risk of tornadoes will extend from Kansas City down to the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast. As the system progresses, the storm risk will shift towards the East Coast on Wednesday. Meanwhile, blizzard warnings are in effect for various regions, including northeastern Colorado, western Kansas, and the Sand Hills of Nebraska, with damaging winds gusting between 50 to 70 mph expected in many areas.
Kansas City is poised to bear the brunt of this severe weather threat. On Tuesday, residents will face the possibility of tornadoes, followed by heavy snow Tuesday night, which may culminate in a blizzard with damaging winds during the Wednesday morning commute. Early forecasts indicate that the second half of March could bring several additional storm systems, resulting in an increased risk of tornadoes across the affected regions.
The current storm is characterized by a rapidly intensifying low-pressure system, which is drawing in air while rotating counterclockwise. This low is currently centered over eastern Colorado and Kansas, and it will gradually shift towards the Great Lakes by midweek. Warm and humid air from the Gulf of Mexico is surging northward, creating instability—essentially the fuel necessary for thunderstorms. In contrast, behind this system, dry air and cooler temperatures are moving east, forming a dryline that serves as the leading edge of dry air from the Desert Southwest.
As the combination of the dryline and cold front interacts, thunderstorms are expected to erupt. This interaction has historically proven effective for producing strong storms. The parent low is also altering the jet stream's path, which brings ample wind energy into play. Any storms that do develop could bring damaging winds and a low-end risk of tornadoes.
On Monday, areas of central Oklahoma and northern Texas, particularly near and north of the Dallas-Fort Worth metropolitan area, will face a slight (Level 2 out of 5) risk of severe weather. This includes cities like Oklahoma City, Norman, Moore, and Lawton. Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate in west-central Oklahoma around 8 or 9 p.m. local time, with some potential for rotating thunderstorms and a low-end tornado risk. These storms will merge into a line by midnight, increasing the threat of damaging winds and quick-hitting tornadoes.
As we transition into Tuesday, an enhanced (Level 3 out of 5) risk of severe weather will cover much of the Lower Mississippi Valley, impacting areas such as southeastern Arkansas, northeastern Louisiana, and western Mississippi. Cities like Little Rock, Pine Bluff, Shreveport, and Jackson are included in this risk zone. A broader Level 2 risk will also encompass southern Missouri, East Texas, Louisiana, southwestern Tennessee, and much of Alabama, affecting cities like Memphis, New Orleans, and Birmingham.
By Wednesday, the risk will extend from the Mason-Dixon Line down to Savannah, Georgia, with areas like Baltimore, Washington D.C., Norfolk, and Wilmington, North Carolina, in the affected zone. Morning thunderstorms could develop into strong systems as they move eastward, particularly if there is sufficient daytime heating. The potential for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes may reemerge in western and central Virginia and Maryland.
On the other side of this storm system, blizzard conditions are expected to impact regions from Denver through Nebraska and Iowa to the Great Lakes. Snowfall totals may reach between 2 to 8 inches, with higher amounts anticipated in the Upper Midwest. Simultaneously, strong winds will sweep across the southern high Plains, particularly in eastern New Mexico, where fire risks are expected to spike to Level 3 of 3, including areas in El Paso and Roswell.
As we brace for these significant weather events, it is crucial for residents in the affected areas to stay informed and prepared for rapidly changing conditions throughout the week.
