While out and about, I often receive questions about the phones I'm testing, but the inquiries become particularly pronounced when I'm showcasing a folding phone. Typically, I hear comments like, “Oh, I thought about getting one of those! But then I just got a [insert slab-style phone name here].” This anecdotal evidence reflects a noticeable trend in consumer behavior, as many individuals express curiosity about foldable smartphones, yet fewer actually make the purchase. This discrepancy aligns closely with sales figures, indicating a significant gap in interest versus actual adoption.
Samsung is keenly aware of this gap and is gearing up to address it at its upcoming Unpacked event on July 9th. The tech giant aims to captivate potential buyers with a new line of foldable devices. However, the question remains: will the introduction of an Ultra-branded folding phone be sufficient to entice consumers? Despite Samsung's persistent efforts over the past decade to promote foldables, including multiple iterations of their devices, sales have not reflected the level of interest.
Interestingly, while Samsung has dominated the foldable market in the US, it has faced stiff competition. Brands like Motorola have successfully launched clamshell-style flip phones, with Counterpoint Research reporting a remarkable 253% growth in Motorola's foldable market share year-over-year in 2024. However, it's essential to note that this growth represents a small slice of a relatively minor market; TrendForce estimates that foldables constituted only 1.5% of the overall smartphone market in 2024.
Despite being a pioneer, Samsung has struggled to gain significant traction with its foldable lineup. The devices launched last year were largely iterative, offering minimal enhancements over their predecessors. The Z Flip 6 featured only minor spec bumps and software improvements, while the Fold 6 saw slight design modifications that failed to create buzz among consumers. However, it appears that Samsung is ready to inject some excitement into the foldable market this time around.
Samsung has hinted at the introduction of an Ultra-branded Fold, which promises a sleeker design that could rival recent advancements made by competitors like Honor and Oppo. Additionally, the anticipated Z Flip 7 is rumored to feature a larger, Razr-style screen that dominates the front panel. There are also talks of a more affordable FE version with the previous cover screen design, aiming to tackle common grievances about foldables being too expensive and offering too many compromises compared to traditional slab-style phones.
Despite these promising developments, challenges remain. Foldables are still perceived as more vulnerable to damage from dust compared to standard flagship models, and repair costs can be prohibitively high. Although Samsung has expressed intentions to achieve full dustproofing, a fully IP68-rated foldable remains elusive. This reality poses a significant hurdle for potential buyers who may be hesitant to invest in a costly device that lacks durability.
Despite the challenges, the future of foldable smartphones doesn't seem bleak. Analysts are optimistic about the potential introduction of a folding phone from Apple, speculated to launch in 2026. An iFold or whatever it may be called could serve to broaden the market, particularly in the US, potentially benefiting Samsung as well. With new models targeting different price segments, Samsung could see its market share begin to recover—a strategy that has proven successful for the company in the past.
With the introduction of an Ultra foldable featuring advanced specifications, Samsung might finally sway consumers who are on the fence about adopting foldable technology. As the landscape of smartphone innovation continues to evolve, the excitement surrounding foldables could lead to a resurgence in consumer interest. And for those eagerly anticipating an extra hinge, Samsung seems poised to deliver on that front as well.
