As the 2024 college football season kicks off, fans of teams ranked in the AP preseason Top 25 should brace themselves for some unsettling statistics. One team that stands out in this regard is No. 10 Florida State, which experienced a shocking collapse last year, plummeting from a 13-1 record in 2023 to a dismal 2-10. This drastic turn of events serves as a cautionary tale about the risks of over-reliance on the transfer portal and highlights how a season filled with hope can quickly unravel.
Florida State was not alone in its disappointment; since the expansion of the Top 25 poll in 1989, an average of 9.5 teams ranked in the preseason have ended unranked each year. However, recent trends indicate that the unpredictability of college football is on the rise. In 2024, 13 teams, including notable programs like Michigan, Utah, and LSU, went from being preseason ranked to unranked. While the 2023 poll was relatively accurate, with only eight teams failing to finish ranked, the previous year set a record high with 15 teams dropping out.
A deeper dive into the numbers reveals that an average of 1.7 preseason top-10 teams end their seasons unranked. This includes teams like No. 9 Michigan and the aforementioned Seminoles. Conversely, more than half of the preseason top-10 teams (5.6) typically secure a spot in the final top 10, with six achieving this in four of the last five seasons. Additionally, around two teams per season manage to jump from unranked to top-10 in the final poll, a feat accomplished by teams like No. 7 Arizona State and No. 8 Boise State last year.
However, the bottom-ranked teams are particularly vulnerable. In both 2022 and 2024, every team ranked from No. 20 to No. 25 in the preseason finished unranked, suggesting fans may want to temper their expectations for this year's lower-tier teams.
Let’s delve into what might lead to disappointing seasons for each ranked team, starting with No. 1 Texas. The Longhorns are faced with the daunting task of replacing four offensive linemen, three of whom were selected in the NFL Draft. Despite confidence in offensive coordinator Kyle Flood's recruiting and development skills, the transition could hinder quarterback Arch Manning’s debut season.
No. 2 Penn State is in a precarious situation as well. Quarterback Drew Allar has struggled against top-tier competition, and while head coach James Franklin has revamped the receiver room via the transfer portal, the success of the offense hinges on Allar’s improvement.
The No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes face their own challenges, as they replace 14 NFL Draft picks, including seven in the first two rounds. The introduction of two new coordinators could disrupt the team's rhythm, particularly with a new quarterback at the helm.
Meanwhile, No. 4 Clemson has an impressive roster of defensive players but struggled with defensive consistency last season. With new defensive coordinator Tom Allen onboard, the team is under pressure to improve significantly after ranking poorly in yards allowed per rush.
No. 5 Georgia experienced unexpected mediocrity last year, particularly in run defense and offensive rushing. With significant turnover on both lines, fans are left wondering how much improvement can be expected.
The No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish have also undergone changes, hiring Chris Ash as their new defensive coordinator. They must rebuild a core part of their defense, which poses challenges for replicating past success.
For No. 7 Oregon, the loss of three defensive linemen and both starting offensive tackles to the NFL will test head coach Dan Lanning’s ability to cultivate talent. These departures could significantly impact their performance.
In Alabama, No. 8 Alabama is grappling with quarterback uncertainty. While Ty Simpson has earned the starting position, the age-old adage about multiple quarterbacks might ring true this season.
As for No. 9 LSU, the team has heavily relied on the transfer portal to bolster its defense. However, past experiences suggest that this strategy may not yield the desired results, leaving LSU trailing behind other SEC powerhouses.
The No. 10 Miami Hurricanes are also facing uncertainties, particularly regarding quarterback Carson Beck’s health and a newly rebuilt receiving corps. Both factors could significantly influence the team's performance this season.
The No. 11 Arizona State Sun Devils are riding high after a Big 12 title, but replicating that success will be tough, especially after losing key players to the NFL. Similarly, No. 12 Illinois will need to significantly improve on both sides of the ball to match their previous year's record.
In the case of No. 13 South Carolina, the pressure is on quarterback LaNorris Sellers to step up after the team lost many key players. The No. 14 Michigan Wolverines are also banking on their new quarterbacks to revive a lackluster passing game.
For No. 15 Florida, the team's success hinges on quarterback DJ Lagway’s health, while No. 16 SMU must replace a disruptive defense that was pivotal last season.
No. 17 Kansas State's hopes rest on a rebuilt offensive line paving the way for quarterback Avery Johnson, while No. 18 Oklahoma is looking for a smooth transition for quarterback John Mateer from his previous competition to a challenging SEC schedule.
The No. 19 Texas A&M Aggies are facing questions about their defensive capabilities, and No. 20 Indiana must maintain its defensive performance against a tougher Big Ten schedule.
Finally, No. 21 Ole Miss faces a total overhaul of both lines, and No. 22 Iowa State must cope with the loss of talented receivers. No. 23 Texas Tech is optimistic after a successful offseason, but they need to maintain that momentum, while No. 24 Tennessee may struggle at quarterback this season.
Lastly, No. 25 Boise State faces challenges in the post-Ashton Jeanty era, as they seek to maintain their status as the top Group of 5 team amidst the heightened competition.
