After a successful Week 8 where my straight-up picks went 10-3, I'm looking to maintain this momentum with my Week 9 predictions. For each game, I’ll provide two key picks: one for which team I predict will win outright and another for which team I believe will cover the point spread. Each pick is accompanied by a confidence level on a scale from 1-10, where 10 represents the highest confidence. For a deeper understanding of my pick methodology, refer to the Week 1 edition of this series. My selections generally favor safer bets, so expect a chalk-heavy approach. If you're interested in seeing my confidence picks rated from 1-14, check the table at the end of this article.
Here’s a recap of my performance from Week 8 along with my current season record:
Overall picks to win: 10-3 in Week 8 (82-38-1 for the season) Picks to win with 1-5 confidence: 7-1 (53-29-1) Picks to win with 6-10 confidence: 3-2 (29-9) Overall to cover the spread: 6-7 (60-58-3) Cover the spread picks with 1-5 confidence: 5-6 (51-48-2) Cover the spread picks with 6-10 confidence: 1-1 (9-10-1)All odds referenced are courtesy of BetMGM as of the time of publication.
The Dolphins have been an unpredictable team this season. After a disheartening loss to the Browns in Week 7, they bounced back impressively with a 34-10 victory over Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Ravens have struggled without Lamar Jackson, but his return should stabilize the team heading into this game. Expect Baltimore to regain its competitive edge, even on a short week.
Pick to win: Baltimore (Confidence level: 6)
Pick to cover the spread: Baltimore (Confidence level: 4)
The Vikings have had limited success, holding a 2-0 record when allowing 17 or fewer points. Conversely, the Lions thrive when scoring 24 points or more, boasting a perfect record in such scenarios. With the Lions likely to reach that scoring threshold, the Vikings may struggle to keep pace.
Pick to win: Detroit (Confidence level: 7)
Pick to cover the spread: Detroit (Confidence level: 5)
The Bengals have shown a troubling trend defensively, particularly against tight ends and planned rush plays. The Bears have a perfect record when scoring at least 25 points this season, making them a solid choice for both victory and spread coverage in what should be a high-scoring game.
Pick to win: Chicago (Confidence level: 4)
Pick to cover the spread: Chicago (Confidence level: 3)
The Packers enter this matchup after a convincing win streak, while the Panthers are reeling from a significant loss to Buffalo. With the statistical advantages and a healthier roster, expect Green Bay to dominate this game.
Pick to win: Green Bay (Confidence level: 9)
Pick to cover the spread: Green Bay (Confidence level: 7)
The Chargers have found success on the ground, averaging over 140 rushing yards in recent games. The Titans are struggling defensively, particularly against the run, which puts the Chargers in a favorable position despite the early kickoff.
Pick to win: Los Angeles (Confidence level: 7)
Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (Confidence level: 5)
With Drake Maye climbing the NFL MVP odds chart and the Patriots showcasing one of the best run defenses, New England looks to be the safer bet. The Falcons are struggling with injuries and inconsistency, giving the edge to the home team.
Pick to win: New England (Confidence level: 6)
Pick to cover the spread: New England (Confidence level: 4)
The 49ers are dealing with several injuries, yet they still hold advantages over the Giants in key areas. While both teams are facing challenges, expect San Francisco to pull through albeit with some uncertainty.
Pick to win: San Francisco (Confidence level: 4)
Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco (Confidence level: 3)
Despite losing two straight, the Steelers are not far behind the Colts statistically. However, the Colts are on a scoring spree, averaging 31 points over their last four games, making them the more favorable choice.
Pick to win: Indianapolis (Confidence level: 3)
Pick to cover the spread: Indianapolis (Confidence level: 1)
After impressive wins, the Broncos face a Texans team that has flown under the radar with strong performances. Given Denver's overall strength, I’m leaning towards them for a narrow victory.
Pick to win: Denver (Confidence level: 3)
Pick to cover the spread: Denver (Confidence level: 4)
This matchup is projected to be very close. The Jaguars excel in passing while the Raiders are strong in pass coverage. I anticipate a Jacksonville win, but the Raiders might cover the spread.
Pick to win: Jacksonville (Confidence level: 1)
Pick to cover the spread: Las Vegas (Confidence level: 1)
The Rams possess a significant statistical advantage, particularly in the passing game. With a bye week behind them, they are primed to take on the Saints, who are grappling with quarterback changes right before the game.
Pick to win: Los Angeles (Confidence level: 9)
Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles (Confidence level: 7)
This matchup usually carries high stakes, and while the Chiefs have improved their passing game, the Bills have a notable advantage in pass rushing. With both teams having their strengths, I’m leaning towards Buffalo for the win due to their home-field advantage.
Pick to win: Buffalo (Confidence level: 2)
Pick to cover the spread: Buffalo (Confidence level: 3)
With a stellar defensive performance and a bye week under their belt, the Seahawks are positioned well against a Commanders team dealing with injury issues. I expect Seattle to secure the win.
Pick to win: Seattle (Confidence level: 4)
Pick to cover the spread: Seattle (Confidence level: 3)
This game hinges on whether the Cardinals can prevent the Cowboys from scoring heavily. Dallas has demonstrated that they win when scoring above 27 points, making this matchup critical for Arizona's defense.
Pick to win: Dallas (Confidence level: 3)
Pick to cover the spread: Dallas (Confidence level: 2)
