Welcome back to our weekly college football analysis, where we share our favorite college football favorites as part of our Big Bets on Campus podcast. This week, we're highlighting two exciting matchups featuring home favorites: one in a significant top-15 SEC clash and another in a longstanding Big Ten rivalry. Our focus is on the games scheduled for Saturday, October 25, where the stakes are high and the competition is fierce. Let's dive into our Week 9 college football predictions and NCAAF picks.
As we look at the matchup between Oklahoma and Ole Miss, I’m leaning towards Oklahoma, currently favored by 5.5 points. My confidence in Oklahoma stems from a few key factors. Firstly, I have concerns about Ole Miss' offensive line performance, which hasn't impressed me this season. On the other hand, Oklahoma's defensive front appears poised to dominate the line of scrimmage, applying pressure on Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and creating opportunities for turnovers.
Defensively, Ole Miss has struggled to inspire confidence. Their strategy revolves around preventing big plays, which is a double-edged sword against a team like Oklahoma that excels in methodical offensive drives. Although I have a slightly lower opinion of Ole Miss compared to the general consensus, the betting line reflects that sentiment, hovering just under a touchdown.
Two critical questions arise in this contest. The first concerns Ole Miss' run defense, which ranks among the worst in the nation. Conversely, Oklahoma has had its own issues with the run game. The outcome of this battle will be pivotal. If Oklahoma can establish a successful ground game, I foresee a comfortable victory for the Sooners.
The second question revolves around the strength of Oklahoma's defense, which is recognized as one of the best in college football. Their defensive scheme is well-coordinated and effective, with a formidable front. A slight concern exists regarding the performance of the secondary, particularly the cornerbacks. So far this season, Oklahoma's defense has faced a string of mediocre passing attacks, making it difficult to gauge how they will fare against stronger aerial offenses. Upcoming games against Tennessee and Alabama will provide more clarity on this aspect. Nevertheless, based on current observations, I’m confident in backing the Sooners to wear down the Rebels and secure the win.
Turning our attention to the Big Ten rivalry, I’m backing Iowa as they face Minnesota, with the Hawkeyes favored by 9 points. My projections have Iowa closer to an 11-point favorite, indicating the value on this line. While Minnesota secured a win against Purdue earlier this season, their post-game win expectancy was only 25%, a statistic that raises eyebrows regarding the quality of that victory.
Furthermore, Nebraska's performance against Minnesota was lackluster, resulting in a 24-6 loss where the Cornhuskers only managed to gain 27% of available yards. This statistic starkly contrasts the national average of 44%, highlighting significant offensive struggles for Nebraska rather than commendable defensive efforts from Minnesota.
Compounding Minnesota's challenges, their defense ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, which could present serious issues against an Iowa run game that has been finding its rhythm, led by players like Kamari Moulton and Mark Gronowski. The Golden Gophers also find themselves in the bottom 15 for both Rush and Pass EPA, while Iowa boasts a top-10 ranking in terms of quality drives allowed. Given the current trajectory of Iowa's run game, I anticipate they will maintain their momentum and come out on top in this matchup.
As we gear up for an exciting Saturday of college football, be sure to keep an eye on our predictions for these pivotal games. Whether you're an avid fan or looking for insights into the betting landscape, our analysis aims to offer clarity and enhance your understanding of these thrilling matchups.
