As we move into Week 2 of the NFL season, following a successful Week 1 that featured an impressive upset pick with the Raiders, it’s time to unveil my confidence picks for the upcoming games. In this article, I will be providing two key predictions for each matchup: one for the team I believe will win outright and another for which team I predict will cover the point spread. Each pick will be assigned a confidence level on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the highest level of confidence. For a deeper understanding of my pick methodology, I encourage you to review the Week 1 edition of this series. Additionally, I have included a new 1-16 confidence ranking for each game, with 16 being the most confident. Here’s a recap of how my Week 1 picks performed:
Overall picks to win: 13-3 Picks to win with a confidence level of 1-5: 7-3 Picks to win with a confidence level of 6-10: 6-0 Overall to cover the spread: 8-7-1 Cover the spread picks with a confidence level of 1-5: 8-6 Cover the spread picks with a confidence level of 6-10: 0-1-1Now, let’s dive into the Week 2 selections. All odds referenced are sourced from BetMGM as of the time of publication.
The Green Bay Packers showcased a stellar defensive performance in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions, limiting them to just 246 total offensive yards—their second-lowest output since last season. This impressive feat positions them well to challenge a powerful Washington offense. The pivotal question will be whether the Commanders' defense can contain the Packers. While Washington excelled in shutting down New York’s offense, the Giants are not known for their scoring prowess. Coupled with the advantage of playing at home and Washington facing a short-week road game, the Packers are the pick here.
Pick to win: Green Bay Confidence level: 4 Pick to cover the spread: Green Bay Confidence level: 2 Traditional confidence ranking: 5
The Bills delivered a remarkable 41-point performance against a formidable Baltimore defense in Week 1. Although the Jets have talented defensive players like shutdown cornerback Sauce Gardner, they also have coverage weaknesses, notably with Brandon Stephens allowing a staggering 25.8 PPR points. Conversely, the Bills' Josh Allen is likely to exploit any coverage gaps more effectively than Justin Fields did. Given the Bills' momentum in this series, they are poised to secure a victory.
Pick to win: Buffalo Confidence level: 6 Pick to cover the spread: New York Confidence level: 2 Traditional confidence ranking: 13
New England struggled defensively against the Raiders, allowing a league-high 219 passing yards on deep throws. This deficiency contributed to their loss and likely influenced Miami's favoritism in this matchup. The Dolphins, despite their struggles against Indianapolis, are favored, primarily because of New England's defensive vulnerabilities. Expect the Patriots to bounce back, leveraging their strengths to secure both a win and cover the spread.
Pick to win: New England Confidence level: 5 Pick to cover the spread: New England Confidence level: 6 Traditional confidence ranking: 11
The Cincinnati Bengals present a puzzling challenge this season. Despite possessing elite aerial talent, they leaned heavily on the run in their opening game, likely to mitigate the risk of a shootout against their weaker defense. The Jaguars boast playmakers like Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, which could push the game into a higher-scoring direction. Given Cincinnati's home advantage and the favorable matchup for their offense, I'm leaning towards the Bengals.
Pick to win: Cincinnati Confidence level: 5 Pick to cover the spread: Cincinnati Confidence level: 3 Traditional confidence ranking: 10
Ravens coach John Harbaugh maintains a steady approach, minimizing the impact of last week's loss against Buffalo. The crucial question now is whether Baltimore can cover the hefty spread. While the Browns effectively contained Cincinnati’s offense, they benefited from a conservative game plan from the Bengals. The Ravens, however, will adopt a more aggressive approach, likely enabling them to cover the spread comfortably.
Pick to win: Baltimore Confidence level: 8 Pick to cover the spread: Baltimore Confidence level: 4 Traditional confidence ranking: 16
After missing a crucial opportunity against the defending Super Bowl champions last week, Dallas will be eager for redemption, particularly for key players like CeeDee Lamb. The Giants' secondary, featuring Paulson Adebo and Deonte Banks, struggled last season, creating a favorable matchup for Dallas. Given the Giants’ offensive woes last week, Dallas is poised for a strong showing.
Pick to win: Dallas Confidence level: 7 Pick to cover the spread: Dallas Confidence level: 4 Traditional confidence ranking: 15
While the Titans' defense held its ground against Denver, their offense faltered significantly. The Rams, with a strong pass rush and potential offensive momentum, are in a better position to capitalize on Tennessee's weaknesses. I am favoring the Rams to secure the victory in this matchup.
Pick to win: Los Angeles Confidence level: 6 Pick to cover the spread: Los Angeles Confidence level: 3 Traditional confidence ranking: 12
The Lions' offensive efficiency took a hit with the absence of key players. New offensive coordinator John Morton faces a daunting challenge against a capable Bears defense. While I anticipate an improvement from the Lions, I do not foresee them covering the spread.
Pick to win: Detroit Confidence level: 4 Pick to cover the spread: Chicago Confidence level: 3 Traditional confidence ranking: 6
Seattle's strategy under head coach Mike Macdonald emphasizes a ground game and defense, but their offensive performance was lackluster in Week 1. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's offense, led by Aaron Rodgers, showed promise. Given the early kickoff and home-field advantage, I am leaning towards the Steelers in this matchup.
Pick to win: Pittsburgh Confidence level: 5 Pick to cover the spread: Pittsburgh Confidence level: 3 Traditional confidence ranking: 9
The 49ers face injury challenges, particularly with George Kittle sidelined. If Brock Purdy is unable to play, the 49ers' chances diminish. Despite these issues, they still hold an edge but remain a cautious pick given the uncertainty surrounding their key players.
Pick to win: San Francisco Confidence level: 3 Pick to cover the spread: San Francisco Confidence level: 1 Traditional confidence ranking: 2
Kyler Murray's struggles with deep passing could hinder Arizona's offense, particularly against a Carolina defense that performed well against Jacksonville. This matchup could remain close, but I see the Cardinals pulling off a narrow win without covering the spread.
Pick to win: Arizona Confidence level: 3 Pick to cover the spread: Carolina Confidence level: 3 Traditional confidence ranking: 3
Despite a shaky performance against Tennessee, Denver's offense is expected to rebound against a less formidable Colts defense. Indianapolis had a strong showing last week, but that was largely due to their opponent's shortcomings. Denver is positioned to secure a victory here.
Pick to win: Denver Confidence level: 6 Pick to cover the spread: Denver Confidence level: 6 Traditional confidence ranking: 14
The Chiefs’ depleted receiving corps presents a challenge against a robust Eagles defense. Philadelphia’s significant skill advantage at key positions should prove decisive, leading them to victory in this tightly contested matchup.
Pick to win: Philadelphia Confidence level: 4 Pick to cover the spread: Philadelphia Confidence level: 4 Traditional confidence ranking: 4
Head coach Kevin O’Connell's ability to make in-game adjustments gives Minnesota an edge in this matchup. While the Falcons have shown promise, they will face challenges against a well-coached Vikings team. I’m picking Minnesota to win.
Pick to win: Minnesota Confidence level: 4 Pick to cover the spread: Atlanta Confidence level: 1 Traditional confidence ranking: 7
Houston's struggles with their offensive line could be detrimental in this matchup, allowing Tampa Bay to capitalize on their weaknesses. Despite a shaky secondary, the Buccaneers should secure a road upset against the Texans.
Pick to win: Tampa Bay Confidence level: 4 Pick to cover the spread: Tampa Bay Confidence level: 5 Traditional confidence ranking: 8
With both teams showcasing talent, this matchup could turn into a high-scoring affair. While the Chargers may have the edge, I anticipate the Raiders will manage to cover the spread.
Pick to win: Los Angeles Confidence level: 1 Pick to cover the spread: Las Vegas Confidence level: 1 Traditional confidence ranking: 1
Stay tuned for more insights as the NFL season progresses, and may your picks lead to fruitful outcomes!
