Every week during the NFL regular season, we will delve into the concept of funnel defenses, highlighting teams that frequently face an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. A funnel defense is characterized by its tendency to either excel or struggle against specific offensive strategies, depending on the game script. In this analysis, we will examine how opponents have been exploiting these defenses in neutral game situations—when the score is within a touchdown for either team—and evaluate the recent performances of these rush and pass defenses.
Identifying funnel defenses is not an exact science; unpredictable game scripts can often disrupt our best predictions. However, analyzing matchups through the lens of funnel defenses has proven beneficial in recent seasons, especially when navigating the often stressful start-sit decisions fantasy players face each week. As more data becomes available, this analysis will evolve and improve, particularly in the early weeks of the season, which are traditionally challenging for making accurate assessments.
Last season, teams facing the Detroit Lions made every effort to avoid their stout rush defense, opting instead to attack a secondary that struggled significantly, especially late in the season. In 2024, the Lions faced the second-highest neutral pass rate, indicating that opponents preferred passing over rushing. Assuming a typical game script—where the Green Bay Packers are slight 1.5-point home favorites—it’s likely that Green Bay will pivot from their traditional run-heavy approach to utilize a more pass-oriented strategy.
The Packers, known for their run-heavy tactics last season, may shift gears this week, especially with a healthy Jordan Love and a revamped receiving corps featuring rookie sensation Matthew Golden. This adjustment would contrast their previous performance against the Lions, where they recorded a mere 53 percent neutral pass rate during a close 34-31 defeat. In their last matchup, the Packers didn't exploit the Lions’ weaknesses effectively—despite Josh Jacobs scoring three touchdowns on 18 carries. This week, receivers like Golden, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed could thrive in a pass-heavy game plan against a pass funnel defense.
This week, we also examine the Atlanta Falcons as a surprising entry in the pass funnel category, despite expectations of a run-heavy offensive strategy in Michael Penix's inaugural season as the starting quarterback. Last season, the Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers combined for an astounding 123 points over two games, with Atlanta’s neutral pass rate fluctuating significantly—from 74 percent in Week 5 to only 50 percent in Week 8.
In 2024, Tampa Bay has established itself as the league's most extreme pass funnel defense, allowing opponents to drop back at a staggering 65 percent rate, with an average of 42 pass attempts per game. This high volume of passing opportunities should bode well for Drake London, who is expected to shine, along with Darnell Mooney—returning from a shoulder injury—and Kyle Pitts, who has consistently performed well against the Bucs in previous matchups. If the game script remains favorable, expect significant contributions from all three players.
As we move into the run funnel matchups, the Jacksonville Jaguars face off against the Carolina Panthers, who were last season's most extreme run funnel defense. Carolina boasted a league-low 50 percent pass rate in neutral situations, making it crucial for the Jaguars to establish a strong ground game. The backfield situation for Jacksonville remains unclear, with Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby listed as co-starters, leaving fantasy managers guessing about their usage.
As we head into Week 1, any clarity regarding the Jaguars’ backfield will be vital. Notably, the Panthers allowed the third-highest yards before contact per rush and had the tenth-highest missed tackles per rush last season, indicating they can be exploited on the ground. While offseason moves may impact their run defense, they still represent a favorable matchup for rushing attempts.
In another intriguing matchup, the Pittsburgh Steelers are expected to rely heavily on Jaylen Warren, who has ascended to the top of the depth chart after the demotion of rookie RB Kaleb Johnson. With Aaron Rodgers now leading the Jets, Warren’s role is likely to expand, especially given Rodgers’ penchant for check-down passes—he ranked third among QBs in check-down attempts last season. This trend could present a valuable opportunity for Warren as he takes on the Jets’ defense.
In conclusion, understanding the dynamics of funnel defenses can provide valuable insights for fantasy football enthusiasts and bettors alike. By analyzing these matchups and recognizing potential trends, players can make informed decisions that could significantly impact their weekly outcomes.
