The upcoming clash between the Minnesota Vikings (2-1) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) marks an exciting moment in the NFL as they face off in Week 4. Scheduled for a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff at Croke Park in Dublin, Ireland, this matchup will be broadcast live on NFL Network. The Vikings enter the game as 2.5-point favorites over the Steelers, with the spread set at Vikings -2.5 and the over/under pegged at 41 total points. Minnesota is currently a -140 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Pittsburgh sits at +120, aiming for an upset victory.
As we delve into my Vikings vs. Steelers predictions for Sunday, September 28, my top pick is to back the Vikings at -2.5 (-115). For those looking for the best odds, I recommend checking bet365 for the latest prices. It's crucial to stay informed with our live NFL odds page to find the best betting options.
This matchup is particularly significant as it marks the first Sunday morning game of the NFL season and the inaugural regular-season game held in Ireland. Notably, Aaron Rodgers will be facing a familiar rival in the Vikings, while coaches Mike Tomlin and Vikings' defensive coordinator Brian Flores are both well-acquainted with each other’s strategies. With both teams expected to know what to expect from one another, it's likely that one of them will emerge from this game with a surprising 3-1 record.
The Vikings are beginning to regain health, which has a significant impact on their performance. Star left tackle Christian Darrisaw made a crucial return last week, effectively neutralizing Trey Hendrickson. Moreover, Ryan Kelly is expected to be cleared from concussion protocol just in time for this game. Despite the absence of first-round guard Donovan Jackson, this is arguably the strongest Minnesota offensive line in years.
Additionally, Harrison Smith has returned, reinforcing the Vikings' defense as its quarterback. Furthermore, Jordan Addison is back from suspension, adding depth to an already potent roster. The return of these key players is likely worth two points to the spread, which explains the line's shift towards Minnesota. A fully healthy Vikings squad is beginning to resemble a top-10 team in the NFL.
On the other hand, the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced challenges on defense. They have allowed at least 369 total yards in all three games this season against relatively underwhelming offenses, including the Jets, Seahawks, and Patriots. This averages nearly 400 yards per game against quarterbacks like Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, and Drake Maye. Notably, the Steelers have allowed over 30 points in two of those contests, with the New England Patriots being particularly unfortunate to score only 14 points last week due to five turnovers.
Despite forcing eight turnovers, the second-most in the NFL, the Steelers' defense has not been consistent. Their tendency to allow significant yardage and keep drives alive is a concern heading into this matchup.
When analyzing the matchup, it becomes clear that the Vikings' defense stands out as the most reliable unit on the field. Currently ranked second in defensive DVOA, Coach Flores' squad is known for its aggressive approach, which could pose problems for Aaron Rodgers. Historically, Rodgers has struggled in international games, and this season, he ranks poorly under pressure, with a completion rate of only 27% when facing defensive pressure.
Interestingly, favorites in NFL international games have a strong track record, boasting a 26-11 ATS record, covering 70% of the time. This trend supports the notion that betting on the better team in a neutral setting is often a wise strategy.
For this matchup, my betting prediction is that the Vikings will cover the spread at -2.5. While I believe the Steelers have the potential to cover the spread, I would advise against betting the moneyline for this particular matchup. Additionally, I would recommend staying away from the total in this game due to the unpredictability of both teams' offenses.
In summary, as the Vikings and Steelers prepare to face off in this historic game in Ireland, fans and bettors alike should keep an eye on key player returns and defensive matchups that could determine the outcome. This intriguing matchup has the potential to be a defining moment for both teams as they seek to solidify their standings in the NFL.
