The upcoming clash between the Minnesota Vikings (2-2) and the Cleveland Browns (1-3) in London marks an exciting moment in NFL Week 5. Scheduled for kickoff at 9:30 a.m. ET, the game will take place at the iconic Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England, and will be broadcasted live on the NFL Network. As the matchup approaches, the Vikings are favored by 3.5 points over the Browns, with the over/under set at a modest 36 points.
The Vikings are currently positioned as -205 moneyline favorites, indicating a strong likelihood of an outright win, while the Browns sit at +165, presenting a tempting opportunity for an upset. For those keen on betting, my top pick for this game is the under, currently available at under 36.5 (-115) at bet365. For the best odds, be sure to check our live NFL odds page.
This matchup marks a second consecutive Sunday morning game for the Vikings overseas, and while it may not seem like a prime-time spectacle, it still presents ample betting opportunities. The primary concern surrounding this game is the performance of the teams’ offenses and defenses. Both teams struggle offensively, coupled with their elite defensive capabilities, which heavily suggests a low-scoring game.
In fact, this was the first bet I placed last Sunday, securing under 37.5 points in anticipation of a decrease in the total, which has since fallen to as low as 35.5 at certain sportsbooks. Considering the caliber of both defenses, it wouldn't be surprising to see a final score akin to 9-6.
The Browns boast an impressive ranking as second in Defensive DVOA, having effectively contained star quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, and Jordan Love. Their defense excels against the run, which positions them well to limit the Vikings’ Jordan Mason—especially with Minnesota expected to be without three offensive line starters due to injury.
On the other side, Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores will apply constant pressure, given Minnesota's top-ranked pass defense by DVOA. This creates a challenging situation for rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who is making his debut under significant pressure from the Vikings’ formidable defensive line.
As for the Browns’ offense, they have struggled significantly this season, ranking last in offensive success rate despite facing a relatively easy schedule. They have consistently scored 18 points or fewer in games not featuring Jameis Winston, leading many to question their capabilities against such a strong defense.
For bettors leaning towards a side, I would suggest considering the Vikings. Minnesota enjoys a substantial rest and travel advantage, having already been in Europe following last week’s game in Ireland. Historically, NFL teams playing consecutive games overseas have a strong record, going 2-0 both straight up and against the spread.
Various trends further reinforce the Vikings’ position as potential victors. International favorites not including the regularly overseas Jaguars have a solid track record of 26-12 against the spread (68%). Additionally, Flores has a remarkable 9-1 record against rookie quarterbacks since 2019, with his defenses allowing only 16.3 points per game.
While the Vikings appear to have the upper hand, the low total also raises significant concerns regarding the spread. With a total below 40, the 3.5-point spread will feel much larger come game time.
For those looking to place a bet, my recommendation is to focus on the under—specifically under 36.5 at bet365. Historical data suggests that once totals dip this low, they often finish even lower. Since November 2019, games with totals at or below 37 have gone 40-20-1 to the under, indicating a strong trend towards low scores.
Additionally, consider betting on under 30.5 at +190 (FanDuel) or under 27.5 at +290 (FanDuel), as historical patterns show that games with extremely low totals frequently finish in the 25 to 27-point range. For those willing to take a risk, a same-game parlay of under 27.5 & over 24.5 at +900 (Hard Rock) could provide additional value.
In conclusion, while the Browns vs. Vikings matchup may not be the most thrilling game to watch, it offers unique betting opportunities, particularly on the under. Be sure to grab the best odds available for an exciting betting experience this Sunday morning in London!
