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Transforming a college football program takes time, as evidenced by the careers of legendary coaches like Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowden, and Bear Bryant. Paterno, renowned as the winningest Division I coach in history, needed three years to elevate a 5-5 team to an unbeaten squad that finished No. 2 nationally. Bowden required four seasons to shape Florida State into a title contender with an impressive 11-1 record, while Bryant secured his first national title at Alabama in his fourth year. However, today's coaches, such as Clark Lea and Curt Cignetti, face a different landscape.
Unlike their predecessors, these coaches navigate the realms of name, image, and likeness (NIL) agreements and the transfer portal. Even Nick Saban, who won championships in three years at Alabama and four at LSU, hasn't won in the current climate; his last ring came in 2020, prior to the NCAA's rule granting immediate eligibility for transfers.
Analyzing recent championship winners like Georgia, Michigan, and Ohio State reveals that it took Kirby Smart, Jim Harbaugh, and Ryan Day at least six seasons to reach the pinnacle of college football. Yet, patience is wearing thin for coaches across the nation. This week, I’m introducing a new feature titled "Getting Canned" — just kidding! Instead, I will focus on making questionable selections. My record for picking straight-up winners stands at 49-33, with an upset alert record of 4-5. Let’s dive into our Week 10 picks as we aim for our first successful stat-stuffer selection of the season.
When it comes to prolific passing, no freshman quarterback compares to North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker. Averaging 308.5 passing yards per game, he has thrown 21 touchdown passes against just four interceptions. Last week, he set school and American Conference records by throwing for 608 yards and four touchdowns against Charlotte. This Saturday, the Mean Green are 6.5-point favorites against unbeaten Navy, who currently ranks 117th in passing yards allowed per game. Expect Mestemaker to shine with over 400 passing yards, leading North Texas to a narrow four-point victory.
Virginia has impressively clinched four consecutive one-score victories against formidable foes such as Florida State and North Carolina. A key player in this success has been J’Mari Taylor, a transfer from North Carolina Central, who ranks as the sixth-leading rusher in the ACC. This Saturday, he faces Cal, a team that recently allowed 357 rushing yards in a loss to Virginia Tech. Taylor is poised to achieve a career-high 180 rushing yards and one touchdown, leading all FBS rushers, but Cal ultimately emerges victorious in overtime, adding intrigue to the ACC race.
Since joining the ACC, SMU has posted an impressive 11-1 record in regular-season games, with their only loss coming from a heartbreaking 50-yard field goal by Wake Forest. Facing Miami, who is playing outside Florida for the first time this season, SMU might be seen as an underdog with a 12.5-point spread. However, Miami’s pass defense ranks 135th nationally in yards allowed per game. Expect freshman Malachi Toney to step up with a career performance, recording eight catches for over 190 yards and one touchdown, helping Miami survive in overtime.
This highly anticipated matchup was marked on calendars back in August. The burning question now is whether Ohio State can cover the three-touchdown spread. Despite a hard-fought 25-24 loss at Iowa, Penn State has struggled against the Buckeyes’ formidable defense, which has allowed no more than 16 points to any opponent this season. With Penn State averaging fewer than 300 yards in its last four games, I predict Ohio State will cover the spread and limit Penn State’s offense to single digits.
As the post-Billy Napier era begins, Florida faces a challenging matchup against Georgia, led by Kirby Smart. Both teams have similar defensive stats, surrendering around 20 points per game, but Florida's offense has been largely ineffective this season. The performance of Jadan Baugh will be pivotal; Florida is 3-0 when he rushes for over 100 yards. However, I expect Georgia to successfully limit Baugh to around 70 yards, securing a two-score victory.
Arch Manning's status remains uncertain after a concussion during last week's shootout with Mississippi State. Interestingly, Vanderbilt has historically performed well against Texas, leading the all-time series 8-4-1. Despite Texas' struggles in rushing offense, ranked 97th nationally, I foresee Vanderbilt clinching a victory, continuing their dream season with Diego Pavia scoring twice.
The SEC has a strong chance of securing five teams in this year's College Football Playoff, and the outcome of this game will significantly impact that race. With Oklahoma struggling against Ole Miss last week, allowing 431 yards and 34 points, Tennessee stands as the top scoring team in SEC games. I predict John Mateer will outshine Joey Aguilar, leading Oklahoma to an upset victory.
ESPN’s "College GameDay" is returning to Salt Lake City for their sixth visit, and Cincinnati faces a tough challenge against Utah's dominant rushing attack. With Cincinnati averaging mediocre run defense, the matchup will hinge on how well Utah can pressure Brendan Sorsby. Despite Sorsby’s strong performance of over 250 yards and two touchdowns, I expect Utah to secure a narrow victory with a late touchdown run from Devon Dampier.
With Matt Rhule potentially in the running for Penn State’s head coach position, Nebraska has the chance to end a 28-game losing streak against ranked opponents this Saturday. USC boasts one of the best passing offenses in the nation, while Nebraska excels in pass defense. Keep an eye on Nebraska’s Emmett Johnson, who ranks second in the Big Ten for rushing yards per game. I predict Johnson will have a standout performance, leading Nebraska to a shocking upset over USC.
Our community of bold predictors continues to grow, and their insights are always entertaining. Here are some of the highlights:
Ed: “Down goes LSU. Down goes Kelly.” James: “No unbeatens lose with every team winning by more than one possession.” Joe: “Indiana declares UCLA’s resurgence a fraud and blows out the Bruins.” Brett P.: “Miami rolls over Stanford 42-10.” Aaronious B.: “Houston wins against Arizona State.”However, not all predictions hit the mark:
Brad N.: “Iowa State upsets BYU.” Matt: “Michigan State beats Michigan.” Gerald P.: “Oklahoma wins a close one against Ole Miss.” Carson: “Alabama loses to South Carolina.” Cal: “NC State opens a QB competition.”Reflecting on last week’s performances, there were notable successes and disappointments. The highlights include BYU’s road upset over Iowa State and Vanderbilt covering the spread against Missouri. Unfortunately, LSU could not upset Texas A&M, and South Florida faltered against Memphis.
