OAKMONT, Pa. — Following the third round of the 2025 U.S. Open, only one out of the five men who are at or below par has achieved the prestigious title of major champion: Adam Scott. The 2013 Masters winner is poised to become the second-oldest U.S. Open victor. The leaderboard is currently led by Sam Burns, a five-time PGA Tour winner with only one career top-10 finish in a major. Other notable players in contention include Viktor Hovland, with three top-five finishes in majors but no wins; J.J. Spaun, who missed the cut in his only previous U.S. Open; and Carlos Ortiz, who has not participated in a major for two years and hasn’t made the cut in four attempts. Given these circumstances, it’s likely that Oakmont may once again witness the crowning of a first-time major champion on Sunday evening.
Among the top contenders, I have the most confidence in Adam Scott. At 44 years old, he brings a wealth of experience in major championship golf. The adage "age is just a number" holds true here, as Scott's extensive career has provided him numerous opportunities to refine his game. With 20 career top-10 finishes in majors and a remarkable streak of 96 consecutive major starts, this is Scott's 24th U.S. Open appearance—more than the combined totals of Spaun, Burns, Hovland, and Ortiz.
Scott has shown exceptional skill at Oakmont, posting scores of 70-70-67 without recording a single over-par round. His scrambling ability was particularly impressive on Saturday, as he successfully got up-and-down six times, including from three greenside bunkers. Scott described his play as "old-man par golf," and in a tournament where birdies are elusive, this steady play might just secure him the victory.
Another strong contender is Viktor Hovland, who possesses an extra gear that could propel him to victory. While his performance has been inconsistent in the past, this week his iron game has been exceptional, pushing him into the top five largely due to his impressive saves around the greens. Although I have confidence in Scott's overall game, Hovland's ability to turn it on under pressure is noteworthy. He has previously demonstrated his talent by winning the 2023 BMW Championship and the Tour Championship, showcasing his potential to shine on the big stage.
In contrast, I have concerns about J.J. Spaun, especially after witnessing his collapse during the Monday morning playoff at the Players Championship. Despite impressive rounds this week, including an unexpected opening-round 66, can he maintain his composure when the spotlight is on him during this pivotal moment? This is his first time making the weekend at a U.S. Open, and the pressure could be overwhelming.
Although Sam Burns currently leads the tournament, I worry about his chances of maintaining that position. His Saturday performance was commendable, as he shot a 69 despite struggling with his driving accuracy, missing seven fairways. Burns has shown grit and skill, but he has never been in a true Sunday mix at a major before, which raises questions about his ability to handle the pressure.
Looking further down the leaderboard, Scottie Scheffler could potentially stage a remarkable comeback. Currently at 4-over par, he faces a challenging path ahead, requiring both flawless play and some luck. However, his history of overcoming deficits, such as his final-round 62 at the Paris Olympics, suggests he is more than capable of making a strong push. If the conditions remain favorable, Scheffler could surprise everyone on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton also deserves consideration. After a strong Saturday performance, he is positioned to capitalize on any mistakes made by the leaders. Despite a double bogey on the 15th hole, Hatton's iron play has been among the best in the field, and if he can regain his putting form, he could easily climb the leaderboard.
With favorable weather conditions predicted for Sunday, scoring at Oakmont may improve. However, the USGA's strategic pin placements could still pose challenges. I anticipate that a score of 5-under will be needed to reach a playoff, while 6-under will likely secure the victory outright.
Others, however, predict a winning score of 3-under, given the steady play exhibited by the contenders. No player has shot worse than 72 thus far, and both Scott and Hovland have kept their scores above par. Should it come down to a playoff, I believe Hovland could edge out Scott for the win in a thrilling finish.
