Every week during the NFL regular season, we will spotlight teams facing various funnel defenses. But what exactly is a funnel defense? Simply put, it refers to a defensive strategy that results in a notably high number of pass attempts or rushing plays against them. This analysis focuses on how opposing teams perform against these defenses under a neutral game script—when the score is within a touchdown either way. Additionally, we will examine how effective or ineffective these rush and pass defenses have been recently.
Identifying funnel defenses isn't always a straightforward task, as unpredictable game scripts can disrupt our best predictions. However, analyzing matchups through this lens has proven beneficial in recent seasons, especially for navigating the challenging start-sit decisions that fantasy players face weekly. As we gather more data, this analysis will continue to refine and improve. The first few weeks of the season often present challenges in determining effective strategies, so we will focus on how defenses were targeted in 2024 while considering offseason changes that might affect their performance in the new year.
The Carolina Panthers, much like last season, have emerged as one of the most vulnerable run funnel defenses in the league. In Week 1, Travis Etienne, who has struggled with efficiency over the past two years, excelled against the Panthers. Notably, only Derrick Henry averaged more yards after contact per rush during the opening week of the season. The Jacksonville Jaguars demonstrated a low 49 percent pass rate in neutral situations against Carolina, which signifies a shift in strategy from what was observed in previous seasons.
Against the Panthers, Jacksonville's game plan leaned heavily toward running, capitalizing on their defensive weaknesses. With the Panthers allowing the third-highest rate of rushing yards before contact, we can expect a substantial workload for Cardinals running backs James Conner and Trey Benson in Week 2. Conner handled 12 rushes last week, while Benson had eight. Conner also excelled in the passing game, catching all four of his targets on 21 routes. Given the current circumstances, Conner should definitely be kept in your lineup for 12-team leagues, while Benson offers potential value in deeper leagues, especially if the Cardinals can maintain a favorable game script.
In their disappointing Week 1 performance against the Packers, the Detroit Lions did not lean heavily on their passing game, falling 4 percent below their expected pass rate. With limited neutral game script against Green Bay, the Lions opted for a running strategy, maintaining a 62 percent run rate when the game scenario allowed. Jared Goff's 43 dropbacks may seem significant, but they primarily occurred while the team was in a catch-up mode.
As the Lions prepare to face the Chicago Bears, who allowed the seventh-highest rate of rushing yards before contact in Week 1, expect them to continue their run-heavy approach. Jahmyr Gibbs is a must-start, and David Montgomery remains a viable RB2 option despite his underwhelming performance last week, where he out-carried Gibbs 11 to 9. Montgomery's previous success against the Bears, where he turned 21 rushes into 88 yards, supports the idea that he could see upwards of 15 touches in Week 2.
In an unexpected move, Arthur Smith abandoned the running game and opted for a league-high 72 percent neutral pass rate against the Jets in Week 1. The Jets' defense has proven challenging for running backs, allowing the sixth-lowest rate of rush yards before contact and the third-highest rushing stuff rate. This trend aligns with their profile as a pass funnel defense, suggesting that Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills may again find themselves in a pass-heavy game script.
Allen dropped back 53 times in Week 1's thrilling comeback against the Ravens, and if the Jets' offense can keep pace, we might see a similar scenario. Keon Coleman, following a stellar Week 1, could benefit from favorable game flow, as he witnessed a jump in targets to 26 percent of his routes. Josh Palmer also had a strong outing, while Khalil Shakir, who thrives against zone coverage, could find success as the Jets are likely to employ a zone scheme against the Bills.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have established themselves as a formidable pass funnel defense in 2025, prompting opposing offenses to attempt more passes. In Week 1, the Atlanta Falcons faced the Bucs and were forced to abandon their ground game, leading to a 60 percent passing rate in neutral game scripts. With the Texans entering as underdogs, quarterback CJ Stroud is expected to be in a high-volume passing situation.
The Texans struggled with a low pass rate in their opener against the Rams, but given their current matchup, Stroud should find himself airing it out. This could create valuable opportunities for receivers like Nico Collins, who had a significant share of the team's air yards, and Dalton Schultz, who logged a route on 22 of 34 dropbacks. With little success expected from the running game, a pass-heavy approach is likely to benefit these players in Week 2.
