As we dive into the 2025 NFL regular season, this weekly analysis will spotlight teams that are facing various funnel defenses and highlight fantasy football options that could take advantage of these matchups. But what exactly is a funnel defense? Simply put, it is a defensive scheme that experiences a significantly higher volume of either passing attempts or rushing plays. In this article, I will closely examine how opposing teams are exploiting these defenses during neutral game scripts—when the score is within a touchdown either way—and evaluate the effectiveness of both their rush and pass defenses in recent weeks.
Identifying funnel defenses is not an exact science, and unpredictable game scripts can disrupt even the best strategies. However, over the past seasons, I have found it beneficial to analyze matchups through this lens, which can aid in the often challenging start-sit decisions we face weekly. As the season progresses, more data will refine this analysis. The initial weeks of any season are particularly tricky to navigate, so my focus will primarily be on how defenses were attacked in 2024 while also considering offseason changes that may impact their performance in the new season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' rush defense has struggled significantly in the early part of the season. Fans of the Steelers, who take pride in their defensive legacy, may find it disheartening to see their team faltering. So far, opposing teams are running the ball against Pittsburgh at a 48 percent rate in neutral situations, making them one of the NFL's leading run funnel defenses. This trend makes sense, as the Steelers are currently allowing the sixth-highest rate of rush yards before contact, along with a staggering rate of missed tackles.
Last week, Ken Walker showcased the Steelers' vulnerabilities, easily outrunning T.J. Watt, who was consistently double and triple-teamed. This scenario sets up well for Rhamondre Stevenson, the New England Patriots' lead back, much to the dismay of TreVeyon Henderson drafters. Stevenson has accounted for 56 percent of the Patriots' rushing attempts this season and leads all New England backs in pass routes. With the Steelers’ opponents running the ball 55 percent of the time when leading, Stevenson could see a considerable workload if the Patriots secure an early lead.
This matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears promises to be explosive. Dallas running back Javonte Williams has firmly established himself as the primary ball carrier, with 33 of the team's 42 running back carries through the first two weeks. He is also running routes on 62 percent of Dak Prescott's dropbacks, a promising sign for fantasy owners. The Bears' defense, much like last season, continues to be a significant run funnel, allowing opponents to run against them at a staggering 52 percent rate in neutral game scripts.
The Chicago defense is currently giving up the highest rate of rush yards before contact, making it a prime matchup for Williams. He should be a must-start in Week 3, even for those in 10-team leagues. With the Cowboys looking to exploit the Bears' weaknesses, fantasy managers should feel confident in starting Williams this week.
The Seattle Seahawks are set to face the New Orleans Saints, which could result in a one-sided game unless the Saints can keep it competitive. The Seahawks come into this matchup as 7.5-point home favorites, raising concerns for Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler. If the Saints can maintain a close score, Sam Darnold and the Seahawks may find themselves passing more than anticipated against a New Orleans defense that has shown signs of being a pass funnel.
The Saints have faced the tenth-highest neutral pass rate and the third-highest pass rate beyond expectations this season. Notably, even run-heavy teams like the 49ers opted for a passing approach against New Orleans. For fantasy owners, players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ken Walker should be in starting lineups, along with Cooper Kupp, who had a strong outing against the Steelers with seven catches for 90 yards. Kupp's target share increased significantly in Week 2, and if this trend continues, he could see 8-10 looks against a vulnerable Saints secondary.
The Arizona Cardinals have maintained their defensive prowess, particularly against the run, as seen in their performance from the latter part of 2024. They currently rank among the league's best, allowing the tenth-lowest rushing success rate and the sixth-lowest expected points added (EPA) per rush. As a result, the Cardinals are effectively functioning as a pass funnel, with their opponents passing at a staggering 71 percent rate during neutral situations this season.
While it's unlikely that Kyle Shanahan will abandon the run entirely, the Cardinals' strong front seven could compel quarterback Mac Jones to throw more than expected in Week 3. In the previous week's game against the Saints, the 49ers recorded a 50 percent neutral pass rate, exceeding their expected pass rate by 10 percent. This indicates that Shanahan may be willing to let Jones take more risks in the passing game, making him an intriguing option for fantasy managers.
