Available exclusively to PFF+ members in the PFF app, the PFF Player Prop Tool harnesses the power of predictive analytics and matchup data to help you make smarter, faster, and more confident betting picks. By downloading the PFF app, available on both the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, you gain access to invaluable tools designed to enhance your sports betting experience.
Same-game parlays (SGPs) allow you to combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, significantly increasing the potential payout if your game script plays out as predicted. Our SGP picks are constructed around data-driven narratives, focusing on how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit, and where betting edges can be found.
This week, we’re leveraging the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app for PFF+ members. This tool highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams monitor, and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, ensuring you always know where to find the best odds.
In an expected upset win, QB Russell Wilson and Darius Slayton are set to exploit the Washington Commanders' single coverage. The Commanders closed last season with one of the league's highest rates of single coverage, finishing in the top three overall. This trend continued into the preseason, where they maintained their single coverage approach more than any other team.
Russell Wilson excelled against single coverage in 2024, ranking fourth in PFF grade and sixth in EPA per play in these scenarios. His downfield aggressiveness is evident, as he threw deep more often than any other quarterback while averaging an impressive 16 yards per target. If Washington remains consistent with their defensive strategy, Wilson will have ample opportunities to attack vertically in Week 1.
While Malik Nabers is a strong candidate for success, his potential is already reflected in the betting markets. A more strategic option is Darius Slayton, who runs one of the deepest route trees in the NFL and is among the league's best at creating separation against single coverage. With Wilson expected to unleash deep shots this season, Slayton’s underlying metrics have the potential to convert into significant production — making this matchup against Washington’s single-heavy coverage a prime opportunity.
Same-game parlay build: 130-1
QB Russell Wilson: 270+ passing yards
WR Darius Slayton: 100+ receiving yards
New York Giants: Moneyline
Marvin Mims has showcased impressive underlying numbers from last season, earning targets at an elite rate and achieving a strong yards per route run thanks to exceptional yards after catch efficiency. However, Mims struggled with opportunities, as he was often overshadowed in a rotation behind Courtland Sutton. With the recent trade of Devaughn Vele and Mims logging routes on 25 of 27 dropbacks with the starters during the preseason, it appears he has secured the full WR2 role.
The posted line of 36.5 receiving yards seems mispriced, considering Mims’ potential. The Broncos' formidable defense facing a Titans offense led by a rookie making his first start provides a favorable scenario. If the Titans struggle to sustain drives, Denver could benefit from increased play volume, giving Bo Nix ample chances to feed Mims and surpass his posted total.
Same-game parlay build: 41-1
QB Bo Nix: 300+ passing yards
WR Marvin Mims: 100+ receiving yards
This matchup deserves special attention: the New England Patriots finished last season at the bottom in both perfect coverage rate and disruption rate. Their overall unit has improved, but the potential absence of star corner Christian Gonzalez leaves a significant gap in the secondary. Rookie fourth-rounder Craig Woodson is set to start, following the release of Jabrill Peppers, exposing further vulnerabilities in the defense.
Geno Smith faced considerable disruption last season, yet he proved to be highly effective when kept clean. With an upgraded offensive line and a favorable passing matchup — especially if Gonzalez is sidelined — Smith should have a favorable environment to excel and post noteworthy aerial statistics. Although there remains uncertainty regarding passing volume within the offense, we anticipate a scenario where Las Vegas opts for a pass-heavy approach, allowing Smith to capitalize against a weakened secondary.
