When gearing up for your fantasy football drafts, one crucial aspect is identifying which players to target and which to steer clear of. The vast amount of information available can indeed be overwhelming. To streamline your decision-making process, consider leveraging our expert consensus fantasy football rankings alongside the average draft position (ADP) data. This approach allows you to pinpoint players that experts are inclined to draft at their current ADP and those they believe are better left for competitors. In this article, we will explore some notable players I'm avoiding at their current draft cost.
While Patrick Mahomes has been a standout in previous seasons, he has not ranked among the top six fantasy quarterbacks in points per game since 2022. Over the last two years, his passing game has shown signs of decline, averaging only 6.8 and 7.0 yards per attempt, with back-to-back seasons of fewer than 30 passing touchdowns and a mere 4.5% passing touchdown rate. Although Mahomes consistently contributes rushing yards—finishing in the top 12 for rushing yards among quarterbacks for five consecutive seasons—his passing efficiency has been concerning.
In the past season, Mahomes ranked 29th in highly accurate throw rate and 19th in completed pass over expected (CPOE) among 40 qualifying quarterbacks. His struggles as a deep passer further complicate his draft value, placing him in the bottom ten for CPOE while also ranking among the top ten in off-target rate for deep throws, according to Fantasy Points Data. While he may have the volume and rushing equity to finish as a QB1, it is challenging to view him as more than a low-end QB1 unless his passing proficiency improves.
Kyler Murray finished as the QB12 in fantasy points per game last year, averaging 18.1 points. This has been a consistent trend over the last three seasons, where his points have hovered between 18.1 and 18.9. While rushing remains a significant part of his game—ranking fourth in rushing yards and seventh in rushing touchdowns among quarterbacks—it’s important to note that he can be a frustrating player to roster. Despite recording five top-five finishes last season, he had nine weeks where he finished as QB15 or lower.
His passing statistics were not particularly impressive either, as he ranked 20th in yards per attempt and highly accurate throw rate, 18th in CPOE, and 16th in passer rating. Although Murray has the potential to be a top-15 fantasy quarterback due to his rushing ability, his inconsistency makes him a risky pick for your fantasy team in 2025.
Jared Goff had a standout season last year, finishing as QB7 in fantasy points per game, buoyed by an impressive 6.9% passing touchdown rate—the third-best in the NFL. However, his previous best finish was only QB11, raising concerns about sustainability. Goff could potentially repeat his QB1 performance in 2025, but he must continue to outperform expectations in the touchdown department, as he lacks the rushing ability to compensate for any drop in passing efficiency.
While Goff ranked second in yards per attempt, 12th in CPOE, and fourth in highly accurate throw rate among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, his past performance suggests he is best viewed as a top-15 fantasy quarterback rather than a reliable low-end QB1.
Last season, Aaron Rodgers appeared to be a shadow of his former self, finishing as QB19 in fantasy points per game. Despite playing in an offense with a high passing rate, the future looks uncertain with the Steelers, who are expected to have a lower passing rate in 2025. Relying on Rodgers for efficiency becomes increasingly risky, especially given his performance metrics from last season: 29th in yards per attempt, 39th in CPOE, and 22nd in catchable target rate.
With these statistics, Rodgers is likely to fall into the QB2 category for fantasy purposes, making him a viable streaming option only in favorable matchups.
As you prepare for your fantasy football drafts, it’s essential to be strategic about the players you select. By understanding which players like Mahomes, Murray, Goff, and Rodgers you might want to avoid at their current draft costs, you can make more informed decisions that will benefit your team in the long run. Stay ahead of the competition by utilizing expert rankings and draft analysis to your advantage!
