The current season for streaming defenses in fantasy football has been nothing short of unpredictable. Week after week, we witness surprising performances from various teams. For instance, the Dolphins have now cracked the top ten in overall Defensive Special Teams (DST) rankings while facing a formidable opponent in the Bills. The Jets achieved their ranking largely due to two return touchdowns, while the Eagles displayed their prowess against a strong Packers offense. Similarly, the Falcons excelled against the elite Colts offense, and the Chargers managed to secure a spot in the rankings by facing a Steelers offense that had been yielding an average of just three fantasy points per game to opposing defenses.
While I successfully identified four of the top ten defenses, my goal is to improve this accuracy week by week. My predictive model favored the Saints over the Panthers last week, but I made a last-minute adjustment and elevated Carolina's ranking due to what appeared to be a favorable matchup. This decision turned out to be a miscalculation, as the Panthers had previously shown inconsistency in their fantasy defense performance.
In this article, I will provide not just my weekly rankings but also the rationale behind each team's placement. The rankings are divided into tiers: Tier One features my “elite” plays of the week, while Tier Two consists of strong plays. Tier Three includes borderline top-10 defenses, which could be solid options in favorable matchups. Tier Four highlights deep-league targets, and Tier Five encompasses defenses that should generally be avoided in that week's matchups.
Throughout the season, I will track the accuracy of my predictions, particularly how many top-10 defenses I successfully identify. So far, the 2025 season success rate stands at 49 out of 51 correct predictions, with Week 10 yielding four out of six accurate calls.
For those familiar with my previous articles, you will know that I prioritize defenses that can pressure the quarterback and create turnover opportunities—elements that most fantasy managers value. My approach involves analyzing underlying metrics to assess the quality of a defense rather than solely relying on matchups against poor offenses. Although opponent performance is a factor, I refrain from inflating a mediocre defense's ranking simply because of a favorable matchup.
To pinpoint the best plays each week, I utilize a specific formula:
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + (TURNOVER RATE x 2) - (EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED x 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
This total is then adjusted based on the team’s fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, as recent performance is a strong predictor of future success. I do make manual adjustments for injuries or weather conditions, but I strive to base my rankings on data rather than intuition or external factors.
1. Houston Texans vs TEN (BOD Ranking: 1)
The Texans remain my top defense for yet another week, boasting an impressive ranking that surpasses all others in my list. They have emerged as the fourth-highest scoring defense last week and face the Titans, a team that yields over 10 points per game to opposing defenses. With a remarkable average of 11.2 fantasy points per game over the last six weeks, the Texans are in an excellent position to shine.
Tier Two DSTs2. New England Patriots vs NYJ (BOD Ranking: 5)
Despite my reservations about Thursday night games, the Patriots appear to be in a favorable position against a struggling Jets offense. The Jets managed only 170 total yards against the Browns last week and are missing key players.
3. Chicago Bears at MIN (BOD Ranking: 9)
The Bears may not be a stellar real-life defense, yet they excel in creating turnovers. Facing J.J. McCarthy, who is still adjusting to the NFL, could present an opportunity for the Bears to capitalize.
4. Baltimore Ravens at CLE (BOD Ranking: 30)
Although their fantasy points per game have been low, the Ravens are trending in the right direction and face a Browns offense that allows a significant amount of fantasy points to defenses.
5. Green Bay Packers at NYG (BOD Ranking: 25)
The Packers have been underwhelming in fantasy terms but face a Giants offense that could struggle due to injuries and the potential for a coaching change effect.
6. Atlanta Falcons vs CAR (BOD Ranking: 13)
The Falcons have had an inconsistent season, but their recent performance against a Panthers team that is struggling could yield positive results.
7. Los Angeles Chargers at JAX (BOD Ranking: 17)
After a strong showing against the Steelers, the Chargers face a Jaguars team that allows a decent amount of fantasy points to opposing defenses.
8. Miami Dolphins vs WAS (BOD Ranking: 15)
The Dolphins have improved defensively and face a Commanders team with missing key players, making them a potential sneaky play this week.
Tier Three DSTs9. Los Angeles Rams vs SEA (BOD Ranking: 3)
10. Kansas City Chiefs at DEN (BOD Ranking: 7)
11. Dallas Cowboys at LV (BOD Ranking: 22)
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at BUF (BOD Ranking: 41)
13. Denver Broncos vs KC (BOD Ranking: 6)
14. Buffalo Bills vs TB (BOD Ranking: 8)
15. Seattle Seahawks at LAR (BOD Ranking: 11)
Tier Four DSTs16. Philadelphia Eagles vs DET (BOD Ranking: 18)
17. Cleveland Browns vs BAL (BOD Ranking: 10)
18. Detroit Lions at PHI (BOD Ranking: 21)
19. San Francisco 49ers at ARI (BOD Ranking: 29)
20. Tennessee Titans vs HOU (BOD Ranking: 23)
21. Minnesota Vikings vs CHI (BOD Ranking: 21)
22. Arizona Cardinals vs SF (BOD Ranking: 19)
23. Jacksonville Jaguars vs LAC (BOD Ranking: 20)
Tier Five DSTs24. Las Vegas Raiders vs DAL (BOD Ranking: 26)
25. Pittsburgh Steelers vs CIN (BOD Ranking: 14)
26. Washington Commanders at MIA (BOD Ranking: 28)
27. Carolina Panthers at ATL (BOD Ranking: 27)
28. New York Jets at NE (BOD Ranking: 31)
29. New York Giants vs GB (BOD Ranking: 24)
30. Cincinnati Bengals at PIT (BOD Ranking: 32)
31. Indianapolis Colts (BYE) (BOD Ranking: 12)
32. New Orleans Saints (BYE) (BOD Ranking: 16)
Each week, I will provide these rankings to help you make informed decisions for your fantasy football lineup. Remember, these rankings are dynamic and will be updated based on injuries, weather conditions, and other factors leading up to game day.
