If you're curious about why Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round in the recent NFL Draft, look no further than insights from former Steelers running back Merrill Hoge. Before the draft, Hoge critiqued Sanders, predicting that choosing him in the first round could lead to an "epic failure" in the NFL. During an April 23 interview with 102.5 WDVE in Pittsburgh, Hoge elaborated on his concerns regarding the Colorado quarterback and his potential to succeed at the professional level.
Hoge summarized Sanders' abilities by stating, “he's a really good college quarterback.” However, he emphasized that when he refers to "good," it translates to a rating of around five on a scale of one to ten. He argued that while Sanders displays decent accuracy and processing skills, these attributes are insufficient for a first-round draft pick. Hoge elaborated that the ability to anticipate plays and demonstrate pocket awareness are crucial for a successful transition to the National Football League. “If you’re a five, you’re not a first-rounder. You’re not a franchise guy,” he stated.
Despite leading all FBS quarterbacks with an impressive 74% completion rate, Hoge criticized this statistic as misleading. He pointed out that Sanders’ high completion percentage was largely influenced by his frequent use of bubble screens. According to Hoge, “Nobody threw more bubble screens than Shedeur Sanders when it mattered.” During the 2024 season, a staggering 35% of Sanders' passing attempts were either at or behind the line of scrimmage, tying him for the most in the FBS.
Hoge urged fans and analysts alike to look beyond the surface statistics to assess Sanders' ability to adapt to the NFL. “In college, it can be hard to translate a kid to where he’s going to play, so you have to look deeper into it,” he explained. He dismissed the notion that a quarterback can rely heavily on bubble screens in the NFL, asserting that a truly talented quarterback should be capable of executing a diverse range of plays.
Hoge speculated that the coaching staff at Colorado may have relied on bubble screens to protect Sanders, stating, “You’re going to protect the kid. I get that from a coaching aspect.” However, he also pointed out that great quarterbacks, like recent first-round picks CJ Stroud, Jayden Daniels, and Joe Burrow, possess skill sets that are vastly superior to Sanders'. “He ain't even close, he ain't even in the ballpark,” Hoge remarked, highlighting the gap in talent.
Further complicating the assessment of Sanders' potential was his performance decline as the 2024 season progressed. Hoge noted that Sanders struggled during crucial games, including a disappointing 36-14 loss to BYU in the Alamo Bowl, where he delivered one of his weakest performances of the season. “He got worse as the year went on,” Hoge stated, comparing Sanders' performance to that of Mitch Trubisky in his bowl game.
Hoge issued a stark warning to any NFL team considering selecting Sanders in the first round, suggesting that he would be unable to meet the high expectations that come with such a decision. “He’s going to be an epic failure, and he’s going to set your organization back another two or three years,” he cautioned.
Now that Sanders has been drafted by the Cleveland Browns as a fifth-round pick, the pressure is significantly lessened compared to a first-round selection. However, this may not necessarily improve his chances of securing the starting quarterback position. With competition from Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel, Sanders will need to prove that his game can translate effectively to the NFL.
Hoge's track record as an analyst lends weight to his critiques. In 2014, he accurately predicted that Johnny Manziel would be a bust in the NFL. He expressed similar concerns about Sanders, noting that his instinct and skills may not be well-suited for the professional game: “His skill set does not transition to the National Football League, and it’s a big, big risk to take him,” Hoge concluded.
