Red Bull Racing dominated the world of Formula 1 at the conclusion of the 2023 season, securing an astonishing 19 wins and a third consecutive world championship for driver Max Verstappen. The team celebrated their constructors’ championship as early as September in Japan, marking their car as one of the most exceptional in the sport's history. Many analysts regard the 2023 season as one of the most dominant performances by a team and driver in F1 history. However, the dawn of the new year revealed cracks in this seemingly invincible team.
In less than two years, what was once a championship-caliber team began to unravel. The recent sacking of team principal Christian Horner marked a dramatic turn of events. Key departures included chief designer Rob Marshall, who joined McLaren in January 2024, and chief technical officer Adrian Newey, who left for Aston Martin shortly thereafter. Additionally, sporting director Jonathan Wheatley transitioned to become the team principal for Sauber, a team that has outperformed Red Bull in recent race weekends. The head of race strategy, Will Courtney, also departed after two decades with the team, further emphasizing the turmoil.
The driver lineup has seen significant changes since the 2023 season, with Sergio Pérez being replaced by Liam Lawson, who was then substituted by Yuki Tsunoda just two races into the current season. While Verstappen continues to deliver impressive performances, his results have noticeably declined compared to his championship-winning years. The driver has openly expressed concerns about the car's performance, yet Red Bull has struggled to find solutions, particularly with a major regulatory shift expected in 2026.
Christian Horner, who has led the team since its inception in Formula One in 2005, has witnessed the highs of championship victories as well as the lows of controversial investigations into allegations of inappropriate behavior, which he has consistently denied. After 12 races in the current season, and shortly after Verstappen secured pole position but finished fifth in the British Grand Prix, Horner's 20-year tenure came to an unexpected end, raising numerous questions about the future of the team.
The most pressing question is the impact of Horner's departure on Verstappen, the reigning world champion. In a heartfelt social media post, Verstappen thanked Horner for their successes together, stating, “From my first race win to four world championships, we have shared incredible successes.” This statement reflects a partnership that has faced scrutiny amid Red Bull's recent struggles.
Adding complexity to the situation are the comments made by Verstappen's father, Jos Verstappen, who has publicly criticized Horner, warning that Red Bull would "explode" if he remained in charge. Jos’s remarks put Max in a difficult position, especially as he navigated the media landscape. The dynamic between father and son has contributed to the speculation surrounding the team's future direction.
Despite securing a fourth world title at the end of the tumultuous 2023 season, Verstappen remains under contract with Red Bull until the conclusion of the 2028 campaign. However, rumors of a potential move to Mercedes have surfaced, particularly as Mercedes’ current star, George Russell, faces an uncertain future with his contract expiring at the end of the year. The prospect of Verstappen leaving Red Bull is further complicated by the impending 2026 regulations which include significant changes to fuel, engines, and car designs.
The dynamics of the F1 grid are set to shift dramatically with the upcoming changes, making it a challenging landscape for any driver contemplating a move. When asked about the risks of switching teams amidst new regulations, Verstappen commented, “That’s why I’m contracted to Red Bull.” This suggests that Horner's exit may influence Verstappen's decision to remain with the team, a pivotal question for the future.
The decline in Red Bull's performance began in the 2024 season, which was expected to be another dominant year. After securing consecutive 1-2 finishes at the start of the season, the team's fortunes turned, and both Verstappen and Pérez struggled to extract competitive results. As McLaren and Ferrari posed a renewed challenge, the gap between Red Bull and the leading teams became increasingly apparent.
Red Bull Racing, which entered the F1 arena in 2005 under Horner’s leadership, quickly established itself as a dominant force, claiming consecutive drivers' titles from 2010 to 2013. However, following the significant regulatory changes in 2014, the team struggled to keep pace with Mercedes, which had taken control of the sport. After a resurgence in 2021, when Verstappen secured his first championship, Red Bull again found success, but the challenges of the current season highlight the team’s vulnerability.
As the sport braces for another major regulatory shift, the future of Red Bull Racing remains uncertain. The balance issues and questions surrounding Verstappen's future loom large. If Red Bull is to reclaim its position at the top of the sport, it will do so without Horner at the helm, marking the end of an era for one of the most recognizable teams in Formula 1 history.
