As the NFL season unfolds, it’s time to fire up the panic meter for ten fan bases whose teams are currently sitting at 0-2. This disheartening start has significantly diminished their playoff odds compared to the beginning of the season. So, is it truly time to panic? For some teams, such as the Browns, Saints, and Panthers, a slow start was not entirely unexpected, leading to less reason for their fans to worry. However, supporters of the Chiefs and Texans find themselves in a precarious situation.
If you’ve followed football for any length of time, you’ve likely come across the alarming statistic regarding 0-2 starts being a near-certain death sentence for playoff aspirations. Historically, the numbers back this up; since 1990, only about 12.2% of teams have managed to bounce back and make the playoffs after losing their first two games. However, recent seasons have shown that some teams can defy the odds. For instance, last year, both the Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Rams started the season 0-2 and still went on to win their respective divisions.
The question remains: can the Chiefs and Texans recover this season? The answer is a qualified yes! But how likely is it? Let’s delve into the specifics using my NFL Projection Model to analyze five winless teams and assess whether their fans should keep hope alive for playoff contention or prepare for the 2026 NFL Draft.
When we examine the Kansas City Chiefs, the model still shows confidence in the back-to-back-to-back AFC champions. Currently, their playoff odds stand at 60.1%, ranking them sixth in the conference and placing them firmly in the wild-card hunt. Despite the allure of hopping on the Patrick Mahomes bandwagon, there are genuine concerns for the reigning kings of the AFC.
One of the major issues is the team’s thin wide receiver corps. Rashee Rice is suspended until after Week 6, and Xavier Worthy has been sidelined since the early moments of their Week 1 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers due to a shoulder injury. The uncertainty surrounding Worthy’s return and his performance upon coming back adds to the challenges. Furthermore, aging star Travis Kelce is struggling to shoulder the offensive load like he once did, especially at nearly 36 years old. It’s unrealistic to expect him to be anything more than a complementary piece in this offense.
The lack of talent surrounding Mahomes is becoming evident, particularly in his scramble rate. Currently, Mahomes is scrambling on over 15% of his dropbacks, significantly up from his career high of 7.6% in 2023 and his career average of 6.2%. This dramatic increase, albeit based on just two games, signals a struggling supporting cast. The Chiefs' passing offense is suffering due to a combination of receivers failing to get open and an average offensive line that has allowed a 36.9% pressure rate, ranking 16th in the NFL.
While it’s reasonable to believe Mahomes and his team will find ways to address their issues, the Chiefs' pass rush has been mediocre, and perhaps the most daunting challenge ahead is their tough remaining schedule. My model indicates that Kansas City faces the sixth-hardest schedule moving forward, including home games against Baltimore and Detroit, as well as a challenging away game against Buffalo later in the season.
In conclusion, while Mahomes is undoubtedly one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, this 0-2 deficit presents a significant uphill battle. The path to recovery won’t be easy, but hope is not entirely lost for the Chiefs and their fans as the season progresses.
