The Indiana Pacers are gearing up for a challenging Game 2 of the NBA Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, entering the match as 11.5-point underdogs. This follows their stunning victory in Game 1, where the Pacers not only triumphed over the Thunder but also achieved the second-largest upset in NBA Finals history since the merger.
In Game 1, the Pacers displayed their trademark resilience, overcoming the odds in a performance that echoed their playoff journey this year. The significance of their upset cannot be overstated, as it has set the tone for the series. Tonight's larger spread reflects the historical context of underdogs in the NBA Finals and the challenges that the Pacers face moving forward.
Historically, there have only been nine NBA Finals games with a double-digit spread since the NBA-ABA merger, and among these, only two have resulted in upsets. The notable upsets include:
2001 Game 1: Sixers +11.5 over Lakers 2025 Game 1: Pacers +10 over Thunder 2020 Game 3: Heat +9.5 over Lakers 2023 Game 2: Heat +8 over Nuggets 2004 Game 1: Pistons +8 over LakersAmong the previous nine double-digit underdogs in the NBA Finals, the record stands at 6-3 against the spread (ATS), with only two securing straight-up victories.
When we examine the broader context, 20 teams have entered the NBA Finals as underdogs of nine points or more, with a dismal collective record of 3-17 straight up (SU). Over the last two decades, 52 teams have been double-digit underdogs in consecutive playoff games, with only six of those teams managing to win the first game outright as significant underdogs. The Pacers aim to join this rare group, which includes notable teams such as:
2011 Pelicans 2013 Bulls 2017 Celtics 2019 Clippers 2020 Magic 2025 NuggetsThese six teams collectively went 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in their subsequent games, underscoring the difficulty of maintaining momentum as a significant underdog.
The Pacers are not just fighting for a win; they are striving to rewrite history. In the past 20 years, only twelve teams have won Game 1 of a playoff series while being labeled as double-digit underdogs in Game 2. Unfortunately, these teams have recorded a disappointing 1-11 SU and 4-8 ATS in their follow-up games. The only straight-up victory in this scenario belongs to the New York Knicks, who defeated the Celtics earlier this playoff season.
From an NBA Finals perspective, the Pacers find themselves in a unique position as they become just the fourth team in Finals history since the merger to be double-digit underdogs in two consecutive games of the same series. The previous teams to experience this include the 2018 Cavaliers, the 2001 Sixers, and the 1987 Celtics. All of these instances occurred in Games 1 and 2 on the road.
With the Pacers’ recent victory in Game 1, they hope to defy the odds again in Game 2. The 2001 Sixers are the only other team to have won as a double-digit underdog in Game 1, yet they faced a 9-point defeat in Game 2. Will the Pacers be able to break the trend and secure another unexpected victory against the Thunder? Only time will tell as they look to make history tonight.
