This week's NFL Week 8 features a unique lineup, with six teams on bye and eight out of the twelve weekend games having a spread of six points or more. As we head into Sunday, it's crucial to analyze whether these big favorites can not only win but also cover the spread. In a season marked by parity, even the strongest teams have shown vulnerabilities. This scenario opens the door for taking some less popular underdogs and employing creative betting strategies. Let's dive into my NFL Week 8 picks and predictions!
The New England Patriots find themselves as touchdown favorites this week. While they've performed well so far, led by standout rookie Drake Maye, it's essential to note that their success has come against a notably weak schedule. The Patriots' offense has faced some of the easiest defenses in the league, including the Raiders, Dolphins, Saints, and Titans. However, they will face a much tougher challenge with the Cleveland Browns coming to town.
The Browns' defense is among the best in the league, boasting the top run defense by DVOA and a formidable front led by Myles Garrett. This matchup will likely expose the Patriots' struggles in running the ball, as they currently rank 31st in Run DVOA. The Patriots' rookie TreVeyon Henderson has faced difficulties, and veteran Rhamondre Stevenson has not been able to find his rhythm either.
Given this context, I recommend fading Stevenson's rushing attempts, which are set at 17.5. Our projections suggest he will finish with around 13 carries, making the under a solid play. Bet on Rhamondre Stevenson Under 17.5 Rushing Attempts at -115 (BetMGM).
The Atlanta Falcons enter this week as questionable favorites, despite the inconsistency they’ve shown this season. They’ve only managed to score more than 24 points once, averaging a mere 15.2 PPG otherwise. Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins have a significant special teams advantage, which could prove crucial. It might feel uncomfortable, but consider taking the Dolphins at +350 on the moneyline (ESPN Bet).
For the Falcons to win, they will likely rely heavily on their running game. Looking at Bijan Robinson's prop bets, the value has already been priced in. Instead, I recommend focusing on Tyler Allgeier. His performance tends to correlate with the team's success; he averages 11.3 carries for 46 YPG in wins compared to just 5.8 carries for 28.5 YPG in losses. Therefore, I suggest betting on Allgeier to go over 39.5 rushing yards at -114 (FanDuel), with an additional bet on 50+ yards at +158.
The injury report is quite concerning for the upcoming match between the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are missing key players, including quarterback Brock Purdy and defensive stars Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. This lack of defensive talent could be exploited by the Texans, who have shown they can score against weaker defenses.
While the Texans' offense has struggled, they have managed to score against teams with poor defensive records. Furthermore, the Texans are underrated in metrics like Pythagorean rating, showcasing their potential. Given the injuries on both sides, I prefer to avoid the standard spread and instead bet on alternate lines with the Texans. Consider betting on Texans -9.5 at +320 and Texans -19.5 at +2000 (FanDuel).
Despite previous heartbreaks, I'm continuing to fade the Denver Broncos. The Dallas Cowboys have been consistent, and with quarterback Dak Prescott playing exceptionally well, they pose a significant threat to the Broncos' shaky defense. Dallas's defense has been a concern, but the real focus should be on how the Broncos' defense performs against top offenses.
The Cowboys have a favorable team total set at 23.5 points (-105, DraftKings), which seems low given their offensive output. With several games scoring above 30 points, it's a smart move to take the over on Dallas's team total. Additionally, consider betting on the Cowboys to score over 26.5 points at +154 (DraftKings) or even over 29.5 points at +290.
The Indianapolis Colts are trending upward while the Tennessee Titans are struggling, which is reflected in the spread of two touchdowns. The Colts rank first in Offensive DVOA, while the Titans sit at the bottom of the league. With key injuries to the Titans' defense, including Jeffrey Simmons and L'Jarius Sneed, their struggles may continue.
Given the Colts' impressive offensive performance, I recommend betting on their team total to go over 30.5 points (-109, BetRivers). For those feeling adventurous, you can take small escalators on their totals, such as over 34.5 points at +180 and over 39.5 points at +375 (bet365).
With the Seattle Seahawks on a bye week, they may benefit from the time off as they prepare to face the Washington Commanders. The Commanders are struggling with a multitude of injuries, and I believe the Seahawks should be favored by more than the current line of -2.5. Grab Seattle at this line while you can, as I expect the spread to shift significantly in their favor.
In conclusion, these betting insights for NFL Week 8 highlight various intriguing matchups and player prop bets. Make sure to analyze each game closely and consider these predictions as you form your betting strategies for the week.
