As we dive into NFL Week 7, here are my top three picks and predictions for the upcoming games. Please note that a parlay of these selections is not recommended as a formal strategy. Instead, these NFL picks are best utilized as individual straight bets.
I'm placing my bet on the Cleveland Browns as the favorites in their matchup against the Miami Dolphins. While there are certainly risks involved, I believe Cleveland's strengths align well with the conditions expected in this game, particularly considering the forecast of severe weather in the "factory of sadness." With projected wind gusts reaching 50-60 mph, this game will largely depend on which team can run the ball more effectively. In this regard, the advantage clearly lies with Cleveland.
The Browns rank in the top three for both Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush allowed, whereas the Dolphins are significantly lower, coming in at 22nd and 31st, respectively. I have confidence in Quinshon Judkins to perform well against a Miami defense that recently allowed Kimani Vidal to rush for 124 yards on 18 carries. This follows a week where Rico Dowdle rushed for 206 yards against the Dolphins as well. With Cleveland's dominant defense playing at home, I struggle to see how Miami’s offense can effectively respond.
Another factor to consider is the Browns’ vulnerability to explosive passes, where they rank 21st. However, Miami sits at 24th in this category, will be without star receiver Tyreek Hill, and will face challenging wind conditions that could limit both teams’ downfield passing. This situation favors the Browns even more. Additionally, the Dolphins’ offense struggles, ranking 29th in EPA per Play. Given these circumstances, I believe the Browns' ability to run the ball in adverse weather will be the decisive factor.
Pick: Browns ML (-150)
Next up, I’m looking at the Minnesota Vikings, who are coming off a bye week and playing at home, considered one of the toughest venues in the NFL. The Vikings are expected to be healthier on Sunday, particularly on the offensive line. They will also benefit from the return of linebacker Blake Cashman, which should bolster their run defense. Carson Wentz will start at quarterback, providing a slight upgrade over J.J. McCarthy, and he’ll face a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has struggled significantly in the current season.
The Eagles’ defense ranks below average in both EPA per Play and Success Rate, sitting at 19th in both categories. Their edge rush has diminished, and their run defense ranks 29th in Success Rate. Moreover, there are concerns within their secondary, although star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is expected to play. With the Eagles' offense facing difficulties against zone defense, they will be up against Brian Flores, known for his blitz-heavy schemes and utilization of zone coverage, which has been problematic for Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts this season.
Given these matchup advantages for the Vikings and the struggles the Eagles have shown, I believe the Vikings are the team to back in this contest.
Pick: Vikings +2.5 (-114)
Lastly, I’m looking at the Los Angeles Chargers as they prepare to face the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have displayed some improvement with a revamped defense and a functioning offense led by quarterback Daniel Jones. However, it’s worth noting that their victories have come against less formidable quarterbacks. Meanwhile, the Chargers have had their share of bad luck, particularly with a low red zone touchdown percentage, currently at 35%—the lowest in the league.
Despite their injury issues along the offensive line, the Chargers could see some reinforcements this week. The Colts, on the other hand, are struggling in their secondary, particularly with Charvarius Ward sidelined due to a concussion. This will open opportunities for Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who has shown the ability to exploit weaknesses in opposing defenses. Although the Colts might find success with Jonathan Taylor on the ground, the Chargers' defense is likely to receive some much-needed support.
In what is expected to be a tightly contested game, a turnover could be pivotal. Daniel Jones has been prone to mistakes, while Herbert has maintained one of the lowest interception rates in NFL history. The Chargers also hold the advantage in the kicking department with Cameron Dicker, the most accurate kicker in NFL history, compared to the Colts' Michael Badgley. Given these factors, I’m backing the Chargers to come away with the win.
Pick: Chargers ML (-130)
