NFL Week 3 Betting Insights: The Kitchen Sink Strategy

NFL Week 3 Betting Insights: Kitchen Sink Week

NFL Week 3 is often regarded as a pivotal time for bettors, and it’s affectionately known as Kitchen Sink Week. This is because ten teams start the week with an 0-2 record, and they are already facing the grim reality of a potentially lost season. Historically, only 12.2% of teams in this position have managed to rebound and make the playoffs, which compels these teams to leave everything on the field this week — everything but the kitchen sink.

As the week progresses, the situation already looks dire for the Dolphins, who are now 0-3 after their Thursday night game. The battle between the winless Chiefs and Giants also means they are not contenders for Kitchen Sink Week. This leaves us with several potential Kitchen Sink teams: the Titans, Panthers, Browns, Saints, Bears, Texans, and Jets. We are placing bets on four of these teams.

Kitchen Sink Trends and Data

Let's delve into some data. Since 2010, 0-2 teams facing a non-0-2 opponent in Week 3 have an impressive record of 59-35-2 ATS (63%). Only one season in this timeframe has shown a trend finishing more than a game under .500. Bettors often become overconfident after just two weeks, making Week 3 particularly favorable for underdogs. In fact, Week 3 has historically seen the second-most upsets of any week in the NFL season, according to Clevta. We’ve also observed at least one favorite of five or more points upset outright in each of the last eight seasons.

Moreover, Kitchen Sink teams display notable trends. Their performance is often enhanced in divisional games, particularly when the 0-2 team was favored last week or if its opponent was not. Public sentiment and total points below 44 also favor these teams, especially those that scored at least 17 points in each game. After analyzing the data, I ranked the eight eligible Kitchen Sink teams based on their fit within the broader trends:

The Dolphins lost but managed to cover the spread on Thursday, making Kitchen Sink teams 1-0 ATS so far, even with the Dolphins being the least favorable team in this context. Now, let’s explore my Week 3 picks.

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Betting on some of these Kitchen Sink teams can feel uncomfortable, but that's part of the strategy. The Falcons may appear to be a more reliable option, especially given the injury struggles of the Panthers. Their offensive strength has significantly diminished with injuries to Austin Corbett and Robert Hunt, along with Ikem Ekwonu’s condition. Meanwhile, Atlanta's improved pass rush is poised to exploit these weaknesses.

The Panthers currently rank near the bottom in numerous offensive metrics, and their defense has shown similar flaws, particularly against the run — a dangerous prospect against Atlanta. Consequently, this line has shifted from Falcons -2.5 to as high as -6.5, reflecting an overestimation of Atlanta’s capabilities.

Despite the Falcons’ impressive start, I believe the line should be closer to its original position around -3. The Falcons’ defensive ranking is inflated due to their early-season performance, and their secondary is being tested without top corner A.J. Terrell. The divisional rivalry adds another layer of complexity, with these teams frequently finishing contests within one score. Therefore, I’m betting on the Panthers +6 as my top Kitchen Sink play this week.

The injury struggles continue to play a critical role in this matchup. The Bucs offensive line is significantly weakened, with star LT Tristan Wirfs and key players on the right side out. Baker Mayfield has struggled under pressure, and the absence of Calijah Kancey on the defensive line compounds the issues for Tampa Bay.

On the other hand, the Jets will be starting Tyrod Taylor in place of Justin Fields. While some may view this as a downgrade, Taylor’s better passing abilities could actually enhance the Jets’ offensive prospects. The Jets have relied heavily on their run game, which may not be ideal against Tampa’s stout run defense, but Taylor's presence provides a necessary aerial threat.

This matchup represents a clear letdown spot for the Bucs, who are on short rest after two comeback wins. Given that the DVOA rankings show these teams are nearly equal, I see value in the Jets +7. Additionally, 0-2 teams coming off a loss of 20 or more points have an impressive 15-2 ATS record in Week 3. This is my fourth-best Kitchen Sink spot, and I recommend considering the Jets’ moneyline at +280.

Despite what we’ve seen in the first two weeks, I believe the Texans are undervalued in this matchup. Led by coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars have shown improvement but have faced weaker competition. Their defensive stats may look good, but they have come against subpar offenses. The Texans have historically dominated this rivalry, winning 12 of the last 14 matchups.

Kitchen Sink trends also favor the Texans, especially as they are 75% ATS in divisional games. With the Jags currently at 1-1, I’m confident in betting on Texans +2. This bet also offers potential for a moneyline wager if preferred, especially if the Texans win this week, setting up a competitive division showdown next week.

In this instance, I’m going with the under in a game featuring the Browns. The Packers’ defense has been impressive, while the Browns may struggle offensively against such a strong unit. Cleveland's defensive performance has been commendable, ranking highly in several key metrics.

Given the low total for this matchup and the trends pointing towards lower-scoring games, I recommend betting the under 41.5. This aligns with the current Kitchen Sink themes and reflects the potential for a windy day, which historically favors the under.

The matchup between Carson Wentz and Jake Browning may not excite many fans, but I see opportunity here. Wentz has shown far more potential than Browning, who is unproven as a starter. With Wentz at the helm, I expect the Vikings to perform better than anticipated, especially given their history of success regardless of the quarterback.

Given the disparity in quarterback talent, I’m betting on the Vikings -2.5. This line appears mispriced considering the Vikings’ recent playoff history and the significant gap in talent between Wentz and Browning.

While betting on the Bears may feel uncomfortable given their recent performances, this match represents a strong Kitchen Sink opportunity. The Bears have shown flashes of potential in their games, despite their struggles. With key trends favoring 0-2 teams, I see value in Bears +1.5.

Both teams have struggled defensively, and the Bears’ coaching staff may have the upper hand in exploiting the Cowboys’ weaknesses. Given the trends and the fact that the Bears are home underdogs, I recommend taking this bet.

As I analyze the matchup between the Rams and Eagles, I remain skeptical of Philadelphia’s offensive strategy. The Eagles have had past success against the Rams, particularly in overpowering their defensive front. I’m inclined to lean towards the Rams against the spread, given the trends and matchups.

In summary, NFL Week 3 offers an intriguing mix of betting opportunities, particularly with Kitchen Sink teams that are fighting for their season. Remember to analyze the data carefully and bet strategically as you navigate this pivotal week in the NFL.