As the NFL preseason draws to a close, anticipation builds for the kickoff of the regular season. No longer are we pondering training camp heroes or speculating on which teams will rise or fall. With Week 1 fast approaching, fans can look forward to 16 exciting games spread across four days and two continents. This Sunday promises a thrilling eight hours of commercial-free football for those who enjoy uninterrupted action, or a fascinating NFL Sunday Ticket quad box for those who prefer a broader view. The season opens in South Philadelphia as the Philadelphia Eagles raise their Super Bowl banner, culminating in a showdown in Chicago where Bears fans are buzzing about the prospects of Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams.
The 2024 season was historic for favorites in the betting landscape, but as we step into this new year, it’s essential to dive into the best bets. Below, I’ll share insights on all 16 games for Week 1, beginning with Thursday Night Football's NFC East clash and a special Friday event. All betting lines are sourced from FanDuel as of Tuesday night.
The spread for this game shifted from Eagles -6.5 to -8.5 following the recent trade that sent Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys to the Green Bay Packers. The Eagles boast a returning lineup of 10 offensive starters and, on paper, have a significant advantage in the trenches. While the Cowboys struggled with a bottom-five run defense last season, the Eagles finished first in rushing expected points added (EPA). It’s a banner night for the Super Bowl champions against their fiercest division rivals, suggesting an easy win for Philadelphia, right? Not so fast.
The Eagles' defense raises concerns, particularly in the secondary. With the second cornerback position opposite Quinyon Mitchell becoming a revolving door during training camp, and new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio experimenting with various alignments, the depth of the defense appears compromised compared to last year. Additionally, it’s critical to remember that the Cowboys, prior to their disappointing 7-10 season, went 36-15 in the three regular seasons leading up to 2024. When healthy, Dak Prescott has ranked 10th in EPA per play among 81 quarterbacks, indicating a high floor for Dallas's offense, making an 8.5-point spread difficult to justify. Thus, my verdict is to bet on the Cowboys +8.5.
In a familiar pattern, the Kansas City Chiefs enter this matchup as a small favorite against the Los Angeles Chargers. Historically, games between these two teams have often been decided by a single score. With the Chiefs looking to regain offensive explosiveness in 2025, the addition of key skill players and improvements to the offensive line are promising. However, with rookie left tackle Josh Simmons and a suspended Rashee Rice, the Chiefs may not explode offensively in Week 1.
Although Andy Reid has a history of unveiling creative strategies in the season's opening week, expecting a dominant performance from Kansas City may be premature. If the betting line remains at -3, I recommend leaning towards the Chiefs, but only betting if it dips to -2.5.
Each week, I will highlight my top five picks for the season, which will serve as a precursor for my selections on The Ringer 107. This season-long contest features collaborations among The Bill Simmons Podcast, The Ringer NFL Show, The Ringer Gambling Show, and The Ringer Fantasy Football Show.
The Cleveland Browns have generated considerable media buzz this summer, primarily surrounding their intriguing yet problematic quarterback situation. Historically, divisional underdogs have excelled at home in Week 1, boasting a 23-7 record against the spread since 2010. While the Browns may emerge as one of the weaker teams this season, they fit the profile of a potential dead-cat bounce. The trio of quarterbacks—Deshaun Watson, Jameis Winston, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson—struggled last season, meaning even a steady performance from Joe Flacco could stabilize their offense.
With a shaky offensive line and questions in the secondary, the Bengals may struggle against a Cleveland defense led by Myles Garrett. Given Joe Burrow’s tendency to hold onto the ball too long and start seasons slowly, I’m inclined to bet on the Browns +5.5.
Recommending a bet on the New York Giants might raise eyebrows, but there’s value here. Last season, the Giants struggled, ultimately losing 11 of their final 12 games. However, they now feature Russell Wilson at quarterback alongside first-round pick Abdul Carter, which may rejuvenate their performance. Historically, the Giants have kept their contests against Washington close, losing by three and five points in their previous meetings last year. Considering the Commanders' vulnerabilities, I believe the Giants are underrated, making them a worthwhile bet at Giants +5.5.
As another home underdog, the Seattle Seahawks have caught my attention. Despite concerns about their offensive line and the transition from Geno Smith to Sam Darnold, new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak could implement effective strategies to elevate Seattle’s performance. While the 49ers are gaining significant hype, I’m skeptical, particularly with concerns about their receiving corps. I’m ready to bet on the Seahawks +2.5.
The Houston Texans are implementing a new offense under coordinator Nick Caley, and I anticipate growing pains. With a struggling offensive line and the absence of key players like Joe Mixon, I foresee difficulties for quarterback C.J. Stroud. Conversely, the Rams, under Sean McVay, have been slow starters in past seasons. I recommend betting the under at 44.5 in this matchup.
Green Bay remains a stable team in the NFL, retaining defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. In contrast, the Detroit Lions face significant turnover in their coaching staff. While both teams have their strengths, the Packers' consistency gives them an edge at home. I advise betting on Green Bay -2.5.
The Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts enter this season with questionable vibes, raising concerns about their offensive capabilities. With both teams relying on less mobile quarterbacks, I lean towards the under at 46.5, but only if necessary.
As the NFL season kicks off, these matchups present intriguing betting opportunities. From divisional rivalries to thrilling showdowns, the excitement is palpable. Remember to monitor lines and changes leading up to the games for the best betting outcomes. Let's enjoy the action as we dive into another electrifying season of football!
