As the NFL regular season kicks off, betting enthusiasts can find lucrative opportunities in various matchups. This week, we focus on the anytime touchdown scorers market for NFL Week 1, specifically for Sunday, September 7. Each week, I analyze every NFL game to pinpoint players worth considering for touchdown bets, assessing whether their odds are a sound investment. Sometimes, the best picks go beyond the obvious favorites. Let’s dive into my top NFL touchdown props for the opening Sunday of the season.
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS
While the Jets have brought in quarterback Justin Fields, I don’t expect a significant improvement in their passing game this season. Fields struggled with accuracy during his tenure with the Steelers, and his scramble rate suggests he may not be a reliable option for touchdown scoring. However, I recommend embracing the value in Fields’ odds, which sit above +200 for rushing touchdowns, especially after he scored five rushing TDs in six starts last season.
On the other side, with Aaron Rodgers leading the Steelers, the expected touchdown odds for wide receiver DK Metcalf at +185 don’t inspire confidence. Instead, I see more potential in targeting the tight end duo of Jonnu Smith (+410) and Pat Freiermuth (+460). Both players could capitalize on the Jets’ defensive weaknesses, especially in the middle of the field. I suggest placing a half-unit bet on each tight end.
Verdict: Justin Fields +230 | Bet 0.5U each on Jonnu Smith +410 & Pat Freiermuth +460
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS
The matchup between the Dolphins and Colts offers a unique opportunity for bettors. With Tua Tagovailoa back and Daniel Jones now leading the Colts, the dynamics have shifted. The Colts ranked low last season in both blitz and pressure rates, which bodes well for Tagovailoa’s passing game. Given that 14 of his 19 passing TDs came when not blitzed, I’m focusing on WR3 Nick Westbrook-Ikhine at +650, who scored consistently last season.
For the Colts, while Jonathan Taylor is a viable option, I’m leaning towards WR Alec Pierce at +350 due to his ability to thrive against zone defenses. His scoring potential increases given the Dolphins’ defensive tendencies.
Verdict: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine +650 | Alec Pierce +350
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on FOX
In the game between the Panthers and Jaguars, my initial instincts were to bet on QB Bryce Young and TE Brenton Strange. Young’s rushing ability in the red zone, especially after a strong finish last season, makes him a compelling bet at +600. Meanwhile, Strange, who has stepped into the TE1 role following Evan Engram’s departure, offers value at +380. The Panthers struggled against tight ends last season, making Strange a solid option for a touchdown.
Verdict: Bryce Young +600 | Brenton Strange +380
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on FOX
With Russell Wilson now at the helm for the Giants, there’s potential for improvement in their passing game. WR Malik Nabers, who excelled in man coverage last season, is a favorable candidate at +155. If TE Theo Johnson is healthy and priced above +400, he’s also worth considering.
On the Commanders side, while Terry McLaurin has the highest odds at +125, I’m more interested in the quarterback Jayden Daniels at +170 due to his scrambling ability to convert on the ground.
Verdict: Malik Nabers +155 | Jayden Daniels +175 or pass
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on FOX
Browns tight end David Njoku stands out as a strong candidate for a touchdown, especially considering he scored against the Bengals last season with a high target volume. With Joe Flacco back as the starter, Njoku’s value increases significantly at +250. The Bengals offense is trickier, as Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have high odds, making it hard to find value in their TD props.
Verdict: David Njoku +250 | Pass on Bengals
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS
This matchup presents an interesting dynamic with both teams having new coaching staffs. For the Patriots, I’m leaning towards QB Drake Maye at +350. His ability to scramble and find the end zone makes him a solid bet. For the Raiders, I suggest taking a shot on Tre Tucker at +700, who could benefit from defensive attention on other playmakers.
Verdict: Drake Maye +350 | Tre Tucker +700
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on CBS
Rashid Shaheed for the Saints is intriguing at +370, given his scoring ability last season. The Cardinals may struggle, but WR Michael Wilson at +425 offers potential value as he sees an increased role. If looking for a long shot, Greg Dortch at +900 could be worth a sprinkle.
Verdict: Rashid Shaheed +370 | Michael Wilson +425 | Sprinkle on Greg Dortch +900
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 1 p.m. ET on FOX
Rookie Emeka Egbuka for the Buccaneers is a name to watch at +200, especially with injuries impacting the roster. For the Falcons, Kyle Pitts at +275 is appealing based on his historical success against zone defenses, particularly those run by the Buccaneers.
Verdict: Emeka Egbuka +200 | Kyle Pitts +275
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
In this matchup, I’m eyeing rookie QB Cam Ward for the Titans, who may use his legs to score at +600. For the Broncos, Marvin Mims Jr. at +250 has shown promise and could capitalize on opportunities in the red zone.
Verdict: Cam Ward +600 | Marvin Mims Jr. +250
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
While the 49ers have several players with low odds, I’m hesitant to bet on them this week. Instead, I’ll focus on Zach Charbonnet at +400 for the Seahawks, as well as QB Sam Darnold at +850, who may find success against a shaky defense.
Verdict: Sprinkle on Sam Darnold +850 | Pass on 49ers
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
The Lions may have a tough time replicating their offensive efficiency, making Jameson Williams at +240 a valuable bet given his scoring potential. The Packers will lean on Romeo Doubs, who has a favorable matchup against the Lions’ defensive scheme at +230.
Verdict: Jameson Williams +240 | Romeo Doubs +230
Kickoff: Sunday, September 7 at 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
The Texans boast a formidable defense, making betting on Rams players a challenge. WR Davante Adams stands out at +140 due to his proven scoring ability, while rookie WR Jayden Higgins at +500 is an intriguing long shot given his potential starting role.
Verdict: Davante Adams +140 | Jayden Higgins +500
