The NFL anticipates a significant increase in the percentage of kickoffs returned by 2025, projecting a possible doubling compared to the statistics from 2024. This optimistic forecast hinges on the approval of a new proposal that would move the touchback line to the 35-yard line. This change aims to invigorate kickoff plays, making them more dynamic and engaging for fans.
In the previous year, 2023, approximately 33 percent of kickoffs were returned, thanks to the implementation of the new “dynamic” kickoff rule. This represented a notable increase from just 22 percent in 2022, which was the final year before the rule change. However, despite this improvement, the return rate remained the second-lowest in the history of the NFL. To put this into perspective, the return rate was 38 percent in 2022, illustrating a trend toward fewer returns over recent years.
The “dynamic” kickoff rule introduced a touchback mark at the 30-yard line, resulting in a strategic shift among teams. Most teams opted to kick the ball into the end zone rather than risk a lengthy return, leading to a staggering 64 percent of kickoffs ending in touchbacks. This shift aimed to enhance player safety, as kickoffs have historically been associated with higher injury rates.
Under the proposed rule to adjust touchbacks to the 35-yard line, the NFL estimates that approximately 60 percent to 70 percent of kickoffs will be returned. The Competition Committee has conducted extensive studies, concluding that kicking teams are likely to choose to put the ball in play, rather than defaulting to touchbacks when given an additional five yards. This strategic adjustment is part of the NFL's broader goal to make kickoffs feel more like a traditional football play, filled with excitement and action.
The impetus for changing the kickoff rules largely stems from an effort to mitigate the rising number of injuries associated with kickoffs. Data from 2024 indicates that the injury rate on kickoffs has now stabilized to be comparable to injuries occurring on other types of plays. This positive trend has encouraged the NFL to pursue changes that will not only enhance the thrill of the game but also prioritize player safety.
As the NFL moves forward with its proposed changes to kickoff rules, fans can expect a more action-packed and exciting experience on kickoffs. By potentially doubling the return rate by 2025, the league aims to recapture the thrill of this pivotal play, while also focusing on the safety of its players. Whether these proposals will be successfully implemented remains to be seen, but the future of kickoffs looks promising.
