Welcome to an offseason edition of NFL Under Review, my dedicated column for addressing misguided narratives, puzzling decisions, and various topics surrounding the NFL. With a forward-looking perspective, I aim to highlight significant moves that have shaped the offseason so far.
The Minnesota Vikings have made a wise decision by opting to move forward with J.J. McCarthy at quarterback, rather than pursuing Aaron Rodgers at this time. According to a report by NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero, it appears the Vikings at least considered Rodgers as a potential option. After finishing the previous season with an impressive record of 14-3, the Vikings have made substantial investments in free agency this offseason, indicating their belief that their roster is primed for a Super Bowl run.
McCarthy, however, is an untested player who has yet to take an NFL snap and is recovering from a knee injury that sidelined him during his rookie season. The Vikings must ponder whether Rodgers would provide a better chance of winning in 2025 compared to McCarthy. Ultimately, the Vikings have decided against this route, and I believe they're making a prudent choice.
Examining Rodgers' recent performance reveals a player who ranked 25th in dropback success rate and 24th in expected points added (EPA) per pass play last season, placing him firmly in the below-average category among starting quarterbacks. For the Vikings, signing Rodgers would only make sense if they believed he could dramatically improve his performance on their team. Although he would potentially benefit from a stronger offensive line and the talent of Justin Jefferson, it’s questionable if he would embrace a new system under head coach Kevin O’Connell.
Rodgers, who turns 42 in December, presents a risk given that only two quarterbacks—Tom Brady and Warren Moon—have started at least 10 games in a season at that age during the Super Bowl era. The Vikings are wisely allowing another team to take that gamble.
What can we expect from McCarthy in his first season? Sam Darnold exceeded expectations during his only season in Minnesota but finished only 18th in EPA per pass play and 16th in dropback success rate. While McCarthy is technically not a rookie, we can treat him as one for evaluation purposes. If we analyze rookie quarterbacks who have started at least 10 games over the past decade, the average performance would place a player around 24th in EPA per pass play and 22nd in dropback success rate—similar to Rodgers' last season.
For the Vikings to succeed, McCarthy needs to perform slightly above the average rookie level. If he does, playoff contention seems plausible. While certainty cannot be guaranteed, the Vikings selected McCarthy with the 10th pick in the 2024 draft, indicating they have a vision and trust in his abilities. Staying committed to that plan is a more strategic choice than betting on Rodgers.
The Cincinnati Bengals have successfully navigated a crucial offseason. In the modern NFL, building an efficient offense is key to long-term success. Bengals fans should be thrilled, given how close the organization came to losing key players Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase during free agency. Instead, both receivers received long-term contracts, ensuring that the Bengals have a strong chance at returning to the Super Bowl.
The NFL is about making tough choices, and the Bengals made the right moves by securing Chase and Higgins, even amidst concerns about roster depth and financial constraints. Analyzing the Bengals' offensive performance when Burrow, Chase, and Higgins were on the field together reveals they ranked first in the NFL in EPA per snap and success rate. This trio has the potential to create an elite offense when healthy.
However, the Bengals face challenges on defense. Last season, they ranked 27th in defensive DVOA, indicating a significant area needing improvement. With their top offensive stars secured, the Bengals must now focus on enhancing their defense and offensive line through draft resources. Failure to do so could jeopardize their plans for sustained success.
The Seattle Seahawks have embarked on a controversial strategy this offseason. After failing to reach a contract agreement with Geno Smith, they traded him for a third-round pick and turned to Sam Darnold. While Darnold is younger and presents potential long-term upside, there are inherent risks in relying on a quarterback who has previously struggled.
Seattle’s decision-making raises questions about their confidence in Darnold’s ability to replicate or improve upon last season's performance. Although he ranked 16th in dropback success rate and 18th in EPA per pass play last season, he has a history of disappointing performances. The Seahawks' new approach involves significant bets on unproven players and strategies, raising concerns about their chances of success moving forward.
In contrast, the New York Giants seem to be in disarray. After a disappointing 9-25 record over the past two seasons and a questionable investment in quarterback Daniel Jones, the Giants' offseason decisions have left fans and analysts bewildered. Speculation about the team considering aging quarterbacks like Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston as potential solutions is disheartening.
Furthermore, the team’s lack of direction is evident in their handling of player contracts. Letting talented safety Xavier McKinney walk in free agency while signing Jevon Holland raises questions about the Giants' strategic planning. With a history of poor performance, fans are left wondering about the organization’s future.
The last decade has been fraught with challenges for the Giants, and unless they can draft effectively or make significant changes, they may continue to languish in mediocrity. As the offseason unfolds, the Giants must find clarity in their strategy to avoid another year of irrelevance.
