Blow the Bengals out of the water with a Tee Higgins trade offer. Originally, my advice to Buffalo was just to sign the receiver. Now that the Bengals are planning to give Higgins the franchise tag for the second straight offseason, the Bills need to produce a trade offer so strong that the Bengals don't want to turn it down.
Higgins was set to be the best free agent wide receiver, by far. He had 73 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns last season. He ranked 12th in my DYAR metric despite playing only 12 games. He ranked 24th in 2023, 10th in 2022, and fifth in 2021—even though he had to share targets with Ja'Marr Chase each of those seasons.
Higgins is a No. 1 receiver in search of a No. 1 opportunity. Meanwhile, the Bills need a No. 1 receiver. They need someone quarterback Josh Allen can depend on; someone they can confidently go to on third down to move the chains. Khalil Shakir had 821 yards last season, but he's a slot receiver. They didn't have an outside receiver with more than 600 yards. Higgins would fit perfectly as the leader of their wide receiver room and give them what they need to finally reach the Super Bowl.
Sign Chiefs guard Trey Smith. Practically every guard on Miami's roster is a free agent—Robert Jones, Isaiah Wynn, and Liam Eichenberg—so why not upgrade the position with one of this year's best free agents? Smith had an above-average pass block win rate (93.9%) but he really shines in the running game. Smith's run block win rate of 75.1% ranked sixth among interior offensive linemen last season. The Dolphins as a team ranked 26th with a 69.7% run block win rate.
The lesson we learned from Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry in 2024 is that great running backs matter a lot more when they have enough good blocking to run free into the open field. The speedy De'Von Achane could be a fantastic lead back, but he needs that blocking to free him up to do magic things. Adding Smith would go a long way toward making the holes Miami needs to become a force again in the run game.
Trade quarterback Joe Milton III. There could be interest around the league in Milton because of the overall weakness of this year's quarterback draft class. The rookie showed promise in Week 18 against the Bills' backups with a 72.4 QBR. If New England can turn three more years of a sixth-round pick into four more years of a third- or fourth-round pick, that's usually going to be a win for a roster. Especially when the only playing time Milton had during the regular season was a finale game against backups because the Patriots already have their quarterback of the future in Drake Maye.
Trade wide receiver Garrett Wilson. Wilson was clearly unhappy with his usage by the end of the season. He should have shined with better quarterback play from veteran Aaron Rodgers, and he did. In fact, Wilson set personal records in receptions (101), yards (1,104), and touchdowns (7). But there was definitely a feeling that Wilson could have done more if there wasn't so much attention being paid to Rodgers' old pals Davante Adams and Allen Lazard.
New York is likely going to cut both Adams and Lazard, which makes it even harder to trade Wilson because there won't be anything left in the wide receiver room. But trading Wilson would also mean a fresh start with new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand. Wilson is eligible for a big contract extension, probably in the $30 million per year range. The Jets can let another team pay that while they undergo a bit of a rebuild, dealing Wilson for as much draft capital as possible.
Double up at cornerback. Free agent cornerback Brandon Stephens was the weak link in the 2024 Ravens' secondary, so Baltimore can upgrade its defensive backfield by finding a solid veteran to play alongside Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey. It's important to note that cornerback metrics are very unstable from season to season, so veterans who struggled in 2024 could very easily bounce back in 2025. For example, Buffalo's Rasul Douglas was third in my coverage DVOA metric in 2023 before dropping to 52nd in 2024.
Better yet, the Ravens should double up at the position. With so many good receivers among the top AFC contenders, it's important to have depth in case of injury. The Ravens should use one of their early-round draft picks on a cornerback who can start fourth on the depth chart and then move up as he improves.
Trade defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Hendrickson is one of the best edge rushers in the NFL. He led the league with 17.5 sacks in 2024 and was second in the league in pass rush win rate among edge rushers. But he's going to be 31 years old next season, and one player does not make a defense. The Bengals ranked 27th in defensive DVOA despite Hendrickson's great season.
The Bengals need to rebuild this defense with not just one great edge rusher, and they need a fresh start with new defensive coordinator Al Golden. They have just six picks in the upcoming draft and could use more. Sources told ESPN's Jeremy Fowler that Cincinnati will aim for deals with receivers Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Hendrickson. The Bengals should let another team give Hendrickson that extension and build up their draft capital by sending him elsewhere.
Do not trade Myles Garrett. Garrett's trade request is tough on the Browns because trading him would make no sense for Cleveland. First of all, he may still be the best edge rusher in the NFL. He has had at least 14 sacks in four straight seasons, he ranked sixth in pass rush win rate (21.5%) in 2024 despite sucking up a lot of double-teams, and he won't turn 30 until late in the 2025 season.
Trading Garrett would also be terrible for Cleveland's salary cap situation, which is already in bad shape because of quarterback Deshaun Watson. Roster Management System estimates the Browns to be $30 million over the salary cap. Trading Garrett would leave the Browns with at least $36 million in dead money and a loss of $16.5 million in cap space. If the Browns try to mitigate this by waiting until after June 1 to trade Garrett, they would have to pay him a $5 million roster bonus and get nothing in return.
Trade for quarterback Matthew Stafford. Stafford will come up a couple of times in this article. There's been plenty of discussion about the Rams moving on from Stafford now that he's 37, and about how he might fit with the Giants because of family connections. (Stafford's brother-in-law Chad Hall is the Giants' new assistant quarterbacks coach.) But the Steelers are another team that needs a quarterback and is closer to contention.
Stafford is still playing at a high level. He ranked sixth in QBR in 2023 and then 12th in 2024. Compare that to the Steelers' two quarterbacks from last season. Stafford had 64.7 QBR, while Russell Wilson was at 51.3 (22nd) and Justin Fields was at 50.8 (not enough attempts to be ranked).
Trade for Garrett Wilson. Wilson was clearly unhappy in New York last season, but he's a very talented young wide receiver. He has three straight 1,000-yard seasons, which is even more impressive considering the quarterback play the Jets have had.
In 2021, Wilson had 70 catches for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns at Ohio State with C.J. Stroud as his quarterback. The Texans can't be sure whether Tank Dell's knee will be healthy next season, and Stefon Diggs is a free agent. Other teams have had a ton of success reuniting college teammates, such as Joe Burrow with Ja'Marr Chase or Tua Tagovailoa with Jaylen Waddle. Why not do the same thing in Houston with Stroud and Wilson? The 25th selection and a Day 2 pick in 2026 should get this trade done.
Load up on interior linemen in the draft. The Colts need help on their interior offensive line. Quenton Nelson is still one of the league's best guards, but both center Ryan Kelly and right guard Will Fries are free agents in 2025. The Colts need to improve pass protection for quarterback Anthony Richardson while keeping the blocking strong for running back Jonathan Taylor. (They ranked fourth with a 73.9% run block win rate in 2024.)
The best way to do this might be to flood the zone. Interior offensive linemen are rarely worth taking in the first round, especially where the Colts are drafting at No. 14. But the Colts could draft interior linemen on Days 2 and 3 to build up depth at the position. Use three picks on interior linemen, combined with a free agent signing or two, and they're going to find a couple of starters who will fit well between Nelson and right tackle Braden Smith.
Draft a tackle at No. 5. Wait, a tackle? Don't the Jaguars already have two tackles? Jacksonville signed left tackle Walker Little to a three-year extension in December. Right tackle Anton Harrison was a 2023 first-round pick and therefore has either two or three years left on his contract, depending on whether the Jaguars pick up his fifth-year option.
The problem? Little and Harrison haven't been great. Little ranked 54th out of 66 qualifying tackles in pass block win rate (84.8%) in 2024. Harrison was 60th (83.1%). Little was above average in run block win rate (77.8%), but Harrison (71.7%) was below average for that metric. Improvement at tackle, especially on the right side, would be a big step forward for new coach Liam Coen. The Jaguars could consider drafting Will Campbell or Kelvin Banks Jr. Then, they could see if Harrison might be able to transfer to guard.
Don't select a quarterback at No. 1. The analytic standard is normally that the quarterback position is so important that a franchise has to take a quarterback at the top of the draft if it needs one. But many draft analysts don't feel that any of this year's quarterbacks are truly worth the first overall selection. So maybe the best thing is not to reach.
The AFC is currently loaded, and the Titans shouldn't use the No. 1 pick on a middle-of-the-pack QB. The Titans should draft edge rusher Abdul Carter or cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter instead of forcing a competitive window where one does not exist. They can be satisfied with Will Levis while trying to build the rest of the team for when a top quarterback is finally available. The Titans have already suggested they are thinking this way with team president Chad Brinker's comment that the Titans will not pass on a generational talent in the draft.
Trade up to draft running back Ashton Jeanty. We don't want teams to take the wrong lesson from the success of Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs in 2024. The lesson is not that running backs matter. The lesson is that running backs matter as long as they are behind good offensive lines.
Analytics suggest that a team should never draft a running back in the first round, but the idea isn't absurd if a team already has an offensive line that would allow a star running back to shine. The Broncos finished No. 1 in run block win rate (74.9%) in 2024, yet they finished only 24th in run DVOA because their running backs were subpar. This is the perfect team to draft the Boise State superstar.
Cut tight end Travis Kelce. This would be a very unpopular move, but Kelce's contract is set up as an easy way for the Chiefs to gain cap space for 2025. According to Roster Management System, cutting Kelce would cost the Chiefs only $2.5 million in dead money while saving them over $17 million on the salary cap. That's important with the Chiefs currently having negative effective cap space.
And while Kelce still had some important catches in the postseason, his regular-season performance collapsed in 2024. Kelce ranked 38th out of 49 qualifying tight ends in receiving DVOA, and he ranked dead last among tight ends in the ESPN receiver tracking metrics.
Trade up to draft quarterback Shedeur Sanders. Everybody agrees that Sanders and the Raiders are a strong match. He was second in the FBS with 37 touchdown passes and fourth with 4,134 passing yards last season. The Raiders don't have one of the league's top offensive lines, but their line did rank a reasonable 17th in pass block win rate (59.4%), so Sanders should have time to stay in the pocket and further develop his passing skills.
ESPN's Field Yates has Sanders falling to the Raiders with the No. 6 pick, but waiting for him to fall to them would not be the bold move. The move would be to trade up into the top three picks, preferably the top two, to ensure that Sanders comes to Las Vegas. Obviously, the problem is that it would cost additional draft capital, especially since the Raiders have other glaring needs and the top three teams (Titans, Browns, and Giants) also need a young quarterback and would need to be enticed to trade down. Nonetheless, if the Raiders want to guarantee they'll get Sanders, they'll need to make a trade.
Trade for Tyreek Hill. Hill seems to have made nice with the Dolphins, but he's still a trade candidate and he fits perfectly with the Chargers. Los Angeles is clearly in need of a No. 1 wide receiver who can stretch the field, and it has the quarterback who can get the ball to that type of receiver.
Even in an off 2024 season, Hill had 81 catches for 959 yards and six touchdowns. And he's still just one season removed from when he led the league in yards and touchdowns. Hill running deep routes would open up room for Ladd McConkey to work underneath and allow Joshua Palmer or Quentin Johnston to play a much more realistic WR3 role.
Extend DaRon Bland. There may be some questions about extending Bland, who is going into the final year of his rookie contract, after the cornerback missed much of 2024 with injuries. And frankly, he could be a bit overrated after his performance in 2023 because there's a lot of randomness involved in getting five pick-sixes. Still, Bland is strong in coverage. Even without any interceptions in 2024, he had an above-average coverage DVOA in his seven appearances. Extending Bland would lock down the cornerback spot across from Trevon Diggs and allow Dallas to add roughly $3.3 million in cap space.
Don't trade for quarterback Matthew Stafford. There is a lot of discussion of Stafford getting traded by the Rams, with New York as the most likely destination. Some of this talk is based on a relative, as Stafford's brother-in-law Chad Hall is the Giants' new assistant quarterbacks coach. Obviously, the Giants need a quarterback, and Stafford is still playing at a high level.
But are the Giants just a veteran quarterback away from winning? The best-case scenario for adding Stafford is probably a wild-card team in a difficult division where the Eagles just won the Super Bowl, the Commanders went to the NFC Championship Game, and the Cowboys will likely rebound with a healthy Dak Prescott. Stafford might help everyone in New York keep their jobs for another year, but that's not a bold move. It's not the kind of move that will build a Super Bowl contender for the Giants.
Trade defensive end Bryce Huff. It seems like everything worked out for the Super Bowl champion Eagles in the 2024 season, but they made one move that didn't work. They gave a huge free-agent contract to Huff, only to watch the edge rusher fall out of the starting lineup after a few games. He had just 2.5 sacks during the regular season and wasn't active in Super Bowl LIX.
The Eagles aren't going to have any use for Huff going forward, but someone will despite his off year. So why not trade him instead of cutting him? Let's find the other teams that were interested in Huff a season ago and the Eagles can try to flip him for draft picks. Atlanta would be an interesting team to start with—the Falcons desperately need pass-rush help and took a look at Huff last year. The Eagles will need to make the trade with a post-June 1 designation because it will give Philadelphia an additional $4.3 million in cap space and $3.3 million in dead money. That's worth it if the Eagles can get a midround 2026 pick as well.
Trade for wide receiver Cooper Kupp. The Commanders already have a great outside receiver in Terry McLaurin. Now they need an inside presence from the slot, and Kupp would be a strong fit. There's no question that Kupp had a subpar season in 2024, and he hasn't played more than 12 games in each of the past three years due to injuries. His catch rate has been down as well compared to when he won the receiving triple crown in 2021. He has consistently dropped in the ESPN receiving metrics based on player tracking, from a 61 rating in 2022, to 48 in 2023 and all the way down to 23 in 2024.
Build a pass rush. The Bears were 14th in adjusted sack rate but just 24th in pass rush win rate (36.5%) last season. Their starting four defensive linemen are expected to be back, but their depth players are all free agents. Montez Sweat, the Bears' big pass-rush acquisition of 2023, ranked 47th out of 51 qualifying edge rushers with a pass rush win rate of just 9.9%, and he led the team with just 5.5 sacks. The defensive line is also aging. Sweat will be 29 next season, DeMarcus Walker will be 31, and defensive tackle Andrew Billings will be 30.
Trade for Myles Garrett. Elsewhere in this piece, I argue why the Browns should not trade Garrett. But if Garrett forces his way out of town, the Lions should be first in line to make a trade offer. He is a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and the Lions are completely in win-now mode. They are the kind of team that should be dealing high future picks for a superstar who will help put their defense over the top. Imagine if opposing blockers had to deal with Garrett and a healthy Aidan Hutchinson. There's really no way to block that.
Don't cut Jaire Alexander. Usually, the bold move is to cut an important star player. In Green Bay's case, the bold move is to keep him. Some reports say that Alexander is going to be cut soon. The Packers are tired of dealing with his injuries, as he has played in just seven games in two straight seasons. Alexander still has two years remaining on a huge extension he signed a couple of years ago. The Packers would pick up $6.8 million in salary cap space by cutting Alexander now, and more than $17 million if they designate him as a post-June 1 cut.
Sign quarterback Sam Darnold long-term and trade J.J. McCarthy for picks. This seems like an absurd idea after the poor wild-card game Darnold had in the playoffs against the Rams, but that was just one game against a very strong, young defensive line. For the entire regular season, Darnold was surprisingly good, ranking 14th in QBR even after adjustments for the players around him. He will still be just 28 next season, and he probably could be signed for a similar contract to the one Daniel Jones signed with the Giants; the Vikings would have a reasonable out after a couple of seasons if Darnold does not continue to play at a high level.
Trade Kyle Pitts. Pitts was supposed to revolutionize the tight end position after the Falcons selected him fourth overall in the 2021 draft. It hasn't worked out that way. Pitts caught 47 passes for 602 yards and four touchdowns in 2024. He ranked 32nd out of 48 qualifying tight ends in receiving DVOA. After 15.1 yards per reception as a rookie, he hasn't topped 13.0 yards per reception in any of the past three seasons. Pitts played only 62% of Atlanta's offensive snaps last season, while blocking tight end Charlie Woerner played 40%.
Double up on the pass rush. The Panthers were a dismal 31st in pass rush win rate (28.1%) and 27th in adjusted sack rate last season, so that's a clear place where they need players. Getting back interior lineman Derrick Brown from the knee injury that cost him virtually the entire 2024 season will be a big help, but why not go big by taking pass rush help with their first two draft picks?
Don't restructure Derek Carr's contract. The Saints are in big trouble. They are currently a league-leading $54 million over the cap. They also have very few players they can cut to get actual salary cap relief. According to OverTheCap.com, there is no cut the Saints could make before March 12 that would save them more than $4 million in cap space. They're going to have to get below the cap by restructuring contracts, which just moves more dead money down the line and makes it harder to get a clean slate and rebuild the roster.
Cut Rachaad White. The Buccaneers enter free agency with only $2.2 million in cap space. They need to make some room and one way to do it is to say goodbye to White. The running back is entering the final year of his rookie contract, so the Buccaneers can cut him for $3.3 million in cap savings with less than $250,000 in dead money.
Raid the San Francisco defense. The Cardinals are fourth in the league in available cap space, but they need help in a lot of places, especially on defense. So why not grab some playmakers from the 49ers and kick the former division champions while they're down? Defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and cornerback Charvarius Ward are all free agents who started in Super Bowl LVIII.
Trade quarterback Matthew Stafford and bring in Sam Darnold. Stafford has still got it. He ranked sixth in QBR two years ago and 12th last season. He's also 37 years old with a gigantic salary cap number of nearly $50 million in 2025. There has been a lot of scuttlebutt from the NFL rumor mill about the Rams moving on from him. It fits the old adage that it is better to move on from a player a year too early than a year too late. If they do it, they'll want to make it a post-June 1 trade in order to spread the cap cost across two seasons. And they should bring in Darnold as a replacement.
Show Brock Purdy the money. Purdy is entering the final year of his rookie contract, and anything San Francisco decides to do here would be a bold move. Trading Purdy and signing a veteran such as Kirk Cousins? Bold. Letting him play out his contract with the idea they would get a high compensatory pick for him in 2027? Very bold. But given Purdy's draft pedigree and the general belief that he's not a win because of quarterback, extending him and making him the long-term starter is a bold move as well.
Shake up the wide receiver room. The Seahawks missed the playoffs despite a 10-7 record and the offense was a bit of a disappointment, ranking just 18th in the league in DVOA. Wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have two of the three highest cap numbers on the roster—quarterback Geno Smith has the other—and neither was as productive as Jaxon Smith-Njigba in 2024. Maybe it's time to refresh the wide receiver room with some big changes.
