As the 2025 NFL season approaches, questions loom over whether Jayden Daniels and the Washington Commanders will see a decline in their performance, potentially landing at just eight wins. Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are projected to reign supreme atop the AFC, outpacing the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. According to The Athletic’s NFL win projections by Austin Mock, the Commanders are expected to finish with approximately 8.8 wins, while the Bills lead with an impressive 11.2 wins. This analysis raises intriguing discussions about the future of several teams in the league.
Mock’s models provide a comprehensive breakdown of the expected win totals for both the NFC and AFC teams, prompting reactions from NFL beat writers regarding which projections might be too low, too high, or just right.
Projected wins: 8.7 Verdict: Too low
The Arizona Cardinals have shown promising progress under head coach Jonathan Gannon, improving from four wins in his first year to eight last season. With a more complete roster surrounding QB Kyler Murray, including standout players like tight end Trey McBride and running back James Conner, the Cardinals are poised to make a playoff push. Despite some depth concerns, particularly in the secondary, this team appears capable of contending in the competitive NFC West.
Projected wins: 8.2 Verdict: Just right
Optimism is high within the Atlanta Falcons organization, although they haven't surpassed eight wins since 2017. If second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. can elevate his game, the Falcons could become a formidable offensive force. With improvements on defense, particularly in pass-rushing, they might surprise those who doubt their potential.
Projected wins: 11.0 Verdict: Just right
The Baltimore Ravens boast one of the deepest rosters in the league, and the lack of major offseason changes positions them well for success. With Lamar Jackson at the helm, they’ve averaged 12.5 wins during seasons where he starts more than 12 games. However, with a challenging schedule ahead, the 11-win projection seems reasonable.
Projected wins: 11.2 Verdict: Too low
Despite Mock's projection, some believe the Buffalo Bills could be capable of even more. They've averaged 12.2 wins over the last five seasons. However, questions linger around their defense, which is still seeking a solid identity. If their turnover ratio normalizes, achieving last season's success might be a challenge.
Projected wins: 6.5 Verdict: About right
The Carolina Panthers are expected to build on Bryce Young's encouraging finish in 2024. However, the defense remains a significant concern, having ranked as one of the worst in the league. With improvements in the offense, the Panthers might still struggle to exceed expectations in 2025.
Projected wins: 7.4 Verdict: Just right
The Chicago Bears face the challenge of expectations following years of disappointment. With new coaching and high-profile rookie additions, they must prove they can break their long playoff drought.
Projected wins: 10.0 Verdict: Just right
With a strong offensive unit returning, the Cincinnati Bengals have the potential for a powerful season. However, the defense’s development will be crucial to reach their win goals.
Projected wins: 5.4 Verdict: Too high
Despite having a potentially elite defense, the Cleveland Browns face a tough early schedule. Transitioning on offense may hinder their ability to achieve significant success this season.
Projected wins: 7.9 Verdict: Just right
With a new coaching staff and a challenging schedule, the Dallas Cowboys face a tough road ahead. While they’ve traditionally maintained a solid record with a healthy Dak Prescott, key questions remain.
Projected wins: 9.2 Verdict: Too low
The Denver Broncos are expected to improve significantly, building on last year’s strong defensive performance. With upgrades in the offense, they may surpass their projected win total.
Projected wins: 10.2 Verdict: Just right
The Detroit Lions have a talented roster but face questions regarding their coaching changes and competitive division. Maintaining their strong defensive presence will be pivotal.
Projected wins: 9.8 Verdict: Too low
Despite a challenging schedule, the Green Bay Packers return much of their successful roster. New additions may help them exceed their projected win total.
Projected wins: 8.8 Verdict: Too low
The Houston Texans have made significant improvements to address their offensive line issues. With a strong defense, another 10-win season is a realistic goal.
Projected wins: 7.5 Verdict: Too low
The Indianapolis Colts are looking to stabilize their quarterback position and revamp their defense, but achieving consistent performance remains a challenge.
Projected wins: 7.9 Verdict: Just right
New coaching could lead to improved performance for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but early-season struggles may impact their overall success.
Projected wins: 10.9 Verdict: Just right
The Kansas City Chiefs maintain a strong chance for success, but questions regarding their depth and overall performance persist. A 11-win season seems plausible.
Projected wins: 7.6 Verdict: Just right
Despite new coaching and offensive upgrades, the Las Vegas Raiders face defensive challenges that may limit their potential in 2025.
Projected wins: 8.5 Verdict: Just right
The Los Angeles Chargers face significant challenges with injuries that may hinder their performance this season, affecting their win projections.
Projected wins: 9.7 Verdict: Just right
With high expectations, the Los Angeles Rams must navigate injury concerns while maintaining their competitive edge in a challenging division.
Projected wins: 8.0 Verdict: Just right
As always, the Miami Dolphins possess top-end talent, but injury concerns may hinder their ability to exceed their projected win total.
Projected wins: 8.3 Verdict: Too low
The Minnesota Vikings have a talented roster, and while uncertainty at quarterback poses challenges, their offensive continuity may lead to better outcomes than projected.
Projected wins: 8.4 Verdict: Too high
The New England Patriots face significant uncertainties with their offensive line and receiver corps, making it difficult to envision them achieving a winning record.
Projected wins: 5.2 Verdict: Just right
The New Orleans Saints are projected to struggle, with a quarterback situation lacking experience. Their win total reflects the challenges they face this season.
Projected wins: 5.6 Verdict: Just right
Despite roster improvements, the New York Giants are still facing a tough schedule and must demonstrate substantial growth to exceed expectations.
Projected wins: 6.2 Verdict: Just right
The New York Jets face questions surrounding their quarterback play, impacting their potential for a successful season. However, their supporting cast shows promise.
Projected wins: 10.9 Verdict: Just right
The Philadelphia Eagles return a strong core from their Super Bowl-winning roster, but the loss of key defensive starters poses questions about their ability to maintain success.
Projected wins: 8.7 Verdict: A little low
Under head coach Mike Tomlin, the Pittsburgh Steelers consistently find a way to succeed. With a solid defense, they could achieve a win total higher than projected.
Projected wins: 10.4 Verdict: Just right
With a favorable schedule, the San Francisco 49ers are expected to perform well, provided their receiving corps can return to full health.
Projected wins: 8.6 Verdict: Just right
The Seattle Seahawks may have a different look this season, but their potential for improvement could lead them to exceed their projected win total.
Projected wins: 9.8 Verdict: Too low
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to improve upon last season's performance, and with a favorable schedule, they could exceed their projected win total.
Projected wins: 6.5 Verdict: Too high
The Tennessee Titans face several challenges, including a lack of depth in key positions, making it difficult to achieve their projected win total this season.
Projected wins: 8.8 Verdict: Just right
The Washington Commanders have made significant moves in the offseason, including acquiring left tackle Laremy Tunsil and receiver Deebo Samuel. Despite their efforts, uncertainties surrounding injuries and overall depth may impact their season. With a challenging travel schedule, the Commanders need Jayden Daniels to shine if they hope to maintain their competitive edge in the league.
