Welcome back to my annual analysis of the NFL regular-season predictions for all 272 games. This year, the focus is on restraint. At this time of year, we often get swept away by numerous narratives, especially the notion that some teams are on the verge of making the leap from good to great, like the Denver Broncos this season.
With such narratives comes the temptation to project these teams as division winners or to increase their win totals, similar to how the Washington Commanders surprised everyone last year. The Commanders are now viewed as a promising team capable of making another leap, but can we ignore the challenges of their rigorous schedule? Are we ready to fast-track Washington to the top of the NFC East, a division that includes the reigning Super Bowl champions?
As I write this, the Dallas Cowboys are entangled in yet another self-created mess, highlighted by Micah Parsons's trade request. Historically, when Jerry Jones has deeply insulted a star player (as he did with Emmitt Smith in 1993), it has led to surprising success, including a 12-win season and a Super Bowl title. The Cowboys' roster still possesses significant talent.
Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers is showing signs of being a 41-year-old quarterback adjusting to new receivers for the first time. This raises the question: Am I really going to project the Pittsburgh Steelers to finish below .500 for the first time in Mike Tomlin’s coaching career? There are three teams in particular—the Arizona Cardinals, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Carolina Panthers—that I anticipate I might be wrong about. But that’s the nature of this exercise.
As I emphasize each year, it’s easy to look at a team’s schedule and say, “Sure, they can win nine games.” The challenge lies in considering the context of everything surrounding those teams. All factors matter. While you may disagree with these record predictions, I encourage you to focus on the process behind them. Every optimistic win-loss projection you encounter is merely dessert; this version forces you to eat your vegetables. Ready? Let’s dive in, and don’t forget to check out the full projected playoff seedings at the end.
Predicting the Buffalo Bills to win the AFC East was the most straightforward part of this prediction process. Buffalo holds a clear advantage across nearly every roster category compared to other teams in the division. One loss on their schedule stands out: a potential upset against Carolina after the bye week. The Bills occasionally struggle when they get ahead of themselves, and this could be a classic case of looking past an opponent to a more significant matchup against the 2024 conference champion Kansas City Chiefs.
Continuing Buffalo’s trend of strong finishes, they have consistently closed their seasons well since 2020. Expect the Bills to perform admirably in the second half of the season.
The New England Patriots are a work in progress, oscillating between eight and nine wins in my projections. A notable victory for them will be a post-bye win over Buffalo at home, occurring when the Bills are expected to be at their peak. I anticipate the Patriots will be a tough opponent throughout the season, albeit with moments of inconsistency, such as a sloppy loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 6 and a close defeat to the Atlanta Falcons at home in Week 9.
This season feels like a stepping stone for the Patriots as they aim to build towards playoff contention, showcasing progress under coach Mike Vrabel, who should be in the conversation for Coach of the Year.
The New York Jets might see a slight uptick in wins compared to last year’s struggles, thanks to a more focused and distraction-free environment. The Jets will focus on a strong running game to keep games competitive. I predict they will split their “revenge” matchups, winning one against Aaron Rodgers in the opener, while facing a tough challenge against the Atlanta Falcons.
Fans will likely feel optimistic as the Jets rebound from a tough start, managing to secure a four-game winning streak later in the season when the stakes are lower.
The Miami Dolphins are in a youth movement, which may not yield immediate results. Despite the potential for growth, there are significant distractions surrounding the team, including Tyreek Hill. The Dolphins' final stretch is particularly challenging, with three of their last five games in colder weather, making it difficult to maintain momentum down the stretch.
This season is about the Baltimore Ravens overcoming their past disappointments, particularly in critical games against teams like the Chiefs and Bills. Lamar Jackson has reportedly taken significant strides in leadership, which could be crucial in closing out tight games early in the season.
With one of the easiest travel schedules, Baltimore is set up for success, although tough road games against the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers at season’s end could prove pivotal.
The Cincinnati Bengals face challenges, particularly on defense, and are one wide receiver injury away from facing serious competition in the division. However, I expect them to rally after a slow start, finishing strong post-bye week.
The Pittsburgh Steelers could go either way this season, depending on how well their offense adapts to Aaron Rodgers. If he embraces a more balanced approach, the Steelers could edge out the Bengals. I foresee them finishing the season strong, managing to stay above .500.
The Cleveland Browns are in a precarious position, struggling with an aging roster and a quarterback who falters under pressure. The unpredictable nature of their schedule may lead to a random assortment of wins, but the outlook remains dim.
After underestimating the Houston Texans last year, I believe they have potential this season. They should secure wins against favorable opponents, but could also suffer unexpected losses throughout the season.
Despite some early concerns about Daniel Jones, I still believe the Indianapolis Colts can improve this season. A change in coaching staff could help their defense significantly.
The Jacksonville Jaguars remain a mystery. With a new coaching staff and unproven talent, they could either thrive or disappoint, making them a difficult team to predict.
The Tennessee Titans are facing a tough road ahead this season, starting with challenging early matchups. While there is potential for improvement, the overall outlook remains pessimistic.
The Kansas City Chiefs continue to be a formidable team under Patrick Mahomes. With a solid roster, they should secure a competitive record, though they may face unexpected losses early in the season.
The Denver Broncos have potential this season, but their success hinges on maintaining consistency. Their performance in the first half of the season will be critical in determining their playoff chances.
The Los Angeles Chargers continue to improve, even with some roster changes. They are positioned to win games they are favored in while potentially stumbling against stronger opponents.
The Las Vegas Raiders are poised to surprise some teams this season. With a new coach and GM, they could pull off unexpected victories while still facing challenges against tougher opponents.
The Philadelphia Eagles will likely face drama this season, starting strong but potentially struggling mid-season before bouncing back to capture the division.
The Washington Commanders should start strong but may experience challenges as the season progresses. Their schedule includes tough matchups that could test their resolve.
The Dallas Cowboys will likely have a typical season filled with ups and downs, marked by important wins and frustrating losses at critical junctures.
The New York Giants face a tough schedule that could hinder their chances of exceeding expectations this season. Despite moments of promise, they may struggle to find consistent wins.
The Detroit Lions will likely face an uneven start but could find their stride towards the end of the season, ultimately pushing them into playoff contention.
The Green Bay Packers have the potential for streaks of brilliance and confusion this season. Their success will depend on how quickly they can gel as a team.
The Minnesota Vikings face a challenging season, transitioning to a new quarterback while maintaining consistency from last year’s strong performance.
The Chicago Bears have much to prove this season, yet their schedule could lead to a difficult stretch that tests their resilience.
Surprisingly, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could finish as the top seed in the NFC due to a favorable schedule and their ability to secure big wins.
The Atlanta Falcons have a talented roster but need to prove their consistency. Their schedule presents challenges that could affect their playoff push.
The Carolina Panthers have potential with rookie Bryce Young, but it will take time for them to develop as a competitive team.
The New Orleans Saints may struggle this season, with a roster in transition and uncertainty surrounding their competitiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers are well-positioned for success this season, relying on a strong core and a manageable schedule.
The Los Angeles Rams could face challenges early in the season, but their potential for a successful year remains intact, depending on key players' health.
The Seattle Seahawks may encounter ups and downs this season, but they have the potential to make a playoff push if they can navigate the typical rigors of a long season.
The Arizona Cardinals are on the rise, but inconsistent performances may prevent them from achieving their full potential this season.
