Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, providing an in-depth look at the upcoming men’s and women’s NCAA Tournaments, along with insightful analysis and predictions during the tournament period. With Selection Sunday just two days away, the current state of NCAA basketball presents a chaotic landscape for bubble teams, stirring much discussion among fans and analysts alike.
The SEC continues its impressive push towards potentially a record-breaking 14 bids in the NCAA Tournament. A pivotal moment occurred when Texas overcame Texas A&M, a victory that significantly bolstered the Longhorns' at-large chances. Meanwhile, North Carolina and Boise State celebrated crucial head-to-head victories that kept their tournament hopes alive. Xavier also made headlines by nearly defeating Marquette, further intensifying the race for a coveted tournament spot.
As Selection Sunday approaches, the pressing question becomes whether the 12-person selection committee can effectively process and evaluate the flood of recent results. The lengthy deliberations in the committee room often lead to slow decisions, raising concerns about how well they can account for the constant influx of data. It's essential to remember that while conference tournament games are critical, their impact is sometimes overstated. A notable example is Texas A&M in 2022, where a strong conference tournament run did not secure them an at-large bid, highlighting the recurring theme of recency bias in selections.
For teams on the bubble, the culminating weeks of the season often feel like a final exam during Champ Week, but the overall body of work throughout the season serves as the true indicator for selection. The criteria to navigate the bubble watch include:
Should Be In: Teams that are close to being locks and are unlikely to miss the tournament.In the Mix: The true bubble teams that are still vying for a spot.On the Fringe: Teams that need one or two wins to solidify their chances.Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville
Should Be In: None
In the Mix: North Carolina, Wake Forest
On the Fringe: SMU
Strengths: Strong nonconference schedule and solid quality metrics.
Weaknesses: A dismal 1-11 record against Quadrant 1 opponents and a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: North Carolina's victory against Wake Forest was crucial, putting them in a favorable position against Duke, especially with National Player of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg likely out with an injury.
Strengths: Competitive record in the top two quadrants.
Weaknesses: Lacks standout wins and has suffered two Q3 losses.
Looking Ahead: Wake Forest's loss to North Carolina could jeopardize their chances, with their resume metrics falling below the top 50.
Locks: Arizona, BYU, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Should Be In: Baylor
In the Mix: West Virginia
On the Fringe: Cincinnati, TCU
What They Need: After a nearly historic comeback against Texas Tech, Baylor remains in the mix, bolstered by impressive metrics and a solid record against top teams.
Strengths: Six Q1 wins and no bad losses.
Weaknesses: Metrics show they are on the bubble with 13 total losses.
Looking Ahead: Despite lacking a bad loss, West Virginia's recent performance raises concerns about their at-large bid status.
Locks: Creighton, Marquette, St. John’s, UConn
In the Mix: Xavier
Strengths: No bad losses and respectable metrics.
Weaknesses: Limited Q1 victories.
Looking Ahead: A near victory against Marquette puts Xavier in a precarious position as they await the committee's decision.
Locks: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Oregon, Purdue, UCLA, Wisconsin
In the Mix: Indiana, Ohio State
On the Fringe: Nebraska
Strengths: Strong resume metrics without any losses outside Q1.
Weaknesses: A troubling 4-13 record in Q1 games.
Looking Ahead: Indiana's recent loss to Oregon leaves them in a vulnerable position, yet their potential remains.
Strengths: Strong metrics and elite away wins.
Weaknesses: Overall record is concerning, sitting just above .500.
Looking Ahead: Ohio State faces a tough road ahead after a disappointing tournament opener.
Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt
Should Be In: Arkansas
In the Mix: Oklahoma, Texas
What They Need: A recent loss against Ole Miss complicates their path to the tournament, but their strong record against Q1 teams works in their favor.
Strengths: Seven Q1 victories underline their competitiveness.
Weaknesses: A couple of bad losses could hinder their at-large bid.
Strengths: Impressive quality metrics and multiple Q1 wins.
Weaknesses: Their nonconference schedule lacks strength.
Looking Ahead: Texas's victory over Texas A&M enhances their metrics significantly, but their fate depends on the committee's willingness to select multiple SEC teams.
Drake (auto-bid), Gonzaga (auto-bid), Memphis, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s, Utah State
Boise State, Colorado State, Dayton, San Diego State, VCU, UC Irvine, UC San Diego
George Mason, North Texas, San Francisco
Strengths: Key nonconference wins and solid predictive metrics.
Weaknesses: A Q3 loss and low resume metrics.
Looking Ahead: A significant upcoming game against New Mexico could be critical for Boise State's at-large bid prospects.
Strengths: A solid record against top teams.
Weaknesses: A few Q3 losses and a weak nonconference schedule.
Looking Ahead: They need to capitalize on remaining opportunities to enhance their resume.
Strengths: Strong nonconference schedule.
Weaknesses: Poor overall metrics and a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: The Flyers face a tough path to inclusion, needing significant wins to improve their status.
Strengths: An elite win over Houston and a solid record against top teams.
Weaknesses: Limited predictive metrics and a Q3 loss.
Looking Ahead: Following a disappointing tournament exit, SDSU's chances rely on the outcomes of other bubble teams.
Strengths: Strong overall record and performance against top teams.
Weaknesses: Lack of Q1 game experience and a recent loss could hurt their case.
Looking Ahead: VCU needs to perform well in their conference tournament to secure an at-large spot.
Strengths: A notable Q1A win and strong road performance.
Weaknesses: Several Q3 losses and limited opportunities to improve their metrics.
Looking Ahead: A strong showing in the Big West tournament is crucial for their at-large hopes.
Strengths: An impressive road win and a strong overall record.
Weaknesses: Limited opportunities for big wins.
Looking Ahead: UC San Diego’s performance in the Big West tournament may determine their fate.
The Bracket Central series is proudly sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley, maintaining the integrity and independence of editorial content. As the NCAA Tournament approaches, stay tuned for more insights and updates on your favorite teams.
