The NCAA Outdoor Track & Field Championships are set to begin on Wednesday at the University of Oregon’s Hayward Field, and predicting the winners, especially in the men’s distance events, is more complex than it appears. Although the NCAA hosts an indoor championships in March where events like the 800 meters, 1500 meters, and 5000 meters are contested, the performances can vary significantly over just three months. For instance, no male athlete has clinched both the NCAA indoor and outdoor distance titles in the same year since Cole Hocker did it for Oregon in 2021.
Over the past three years, NCAA indoor champions in the men’s distance events have struggled at the outdoor championships, with a dismal record of 0 for 10. In fact, among the 14 NCAA outdoor champions in the men’s distance events from 2022-2024, only one athlete, Parker Wolfe from North Carolina, finished in the top three at the NCAA indoors that same year. The depth and talent in NCAA track and field make it exceedingly tough for athletes to maintain dominance, especially compared to the reign of Edward Cheserek in the 2010s.
This year, the spotlight will be on the 2025 NCAA indoor champions: Matthew Erickson (800), Abel Teffra (mile), Ethan Strand (3000), and Brian Musau (5000). If they can replicate their indoor success outdoors, it would be a remarkable feat. The NCAA outdoor championships promise thrilling sprint finals as well, including a highly anticipated matchup in the 100 meters featuring Arkansas’ Jordan Anthony and South Florida’s Abdul-Rasheed Saminu.
The men’s 800 meters is shaping up to be a competitive event. With prelims scheduled for Wednesday at 8:58 p.m. ET and the final on Friday at 9:14 p.m. ET, several athletes are vying for the title. Notable competitors include Virginia Tech’s Christian Jackson, who has posted the fastest time in the NCAA this year at 1:44.83, and Texas A&M’s Sam Whitmarsh, who was the runner-up in this event last year.
Erickson surprised many by winning the NCAA title indoors as a low seed but has faced challenges this spring, finishing third in his regional quarterfinal. Jackson’s inexperience at the NCAA level raises concerns, while Whitmarsh’s experience could give him an edge. Other contenders like Georgetown’s Tinoda Matsatsa and Cal Poly’s Aidan McCarthy also bring significant credentials to the table. Each athlete's past performances and current form will be critical in determining the eventual champion.
The men’s 1500 meters is expected to be one of the most exciting races of the championships. With prelims on Wednesday at 7:21 p.m. ET and the final on Friday at 8:12 p.m. ET, this event features a stellar lineup. Georgetown’s Abel Teffra leads with a personal best of 3:38.65, while other top contenders like Princeton’s Harrison Witt and Virginia’s Gary Martin can’t be overlooked.
This year’s crop of collegiate runners is exceptionally competitive, with many athletes breaking records and setting personal bests. The advancements in training techniques and shoe technology have contributed to the fast times seen this season. Given the history of NCAA stars transitioning to successful professional careers, this race is sure to produce future track legends.
The men’s steeplechase is shaping up to be a thrilling contest with American Olympian James Corrigan and several talented Kenyan competitors. With prelims on Wednesday at 7:38 p.m. ET and the final on Friday at 8:24 p.m. ET, the stakes are high. Corrigan has a personal best of 8:13.87 and is up against formidable rivals such as Geoffrey Kirwa and Matthew Kosgei, both of whom have impressive season bests.
This could arguably be one of the most competitive steeplechase finals in NCAA history, as all three athletes are undefeated this spring. The outcome could hinge on strategy and execution during the race, making it a must-watch event.
In both the men’s 10,000 meters and 5000 meters, New Mexico’s stars, Ishmael Kipkurui and Habtom Samuel, are favored to dominate. The 10,000 final takes place on Wednesday at 9:56 p.m. ET, while the 5000 will be held on Friday at 9:55 p.m. ET. Kipkurui and Samuel’s strong performances this season make them serious contenders for top finishes, and they could potentially help New Mexico achieve its best-ever finish in the NCAA championships.
With Samuel being the defending champion in the 10,000 and Kipkurui having run the fastest time in the NCAA this year, their chances of a one-two finish are high. In the 5000, they face competition from Oklahoma State’s Brian Musau, who has proven to be a formidable opponent. The men’s distance events at the NCAA championships this year promise to be exciting and full of surprises.
Stay tuned for more updates and predictions as the championships unfold. The level of talent and competition in this year’s NCAA outdoor track and field events is unprecedented, and fans can expect thrilling performances throughout the meet.
