The calendar has flipped to July, and in the three weeks since our first edition of the MLB trade deadline Urgency Index, we’ve witnessed a significant blockbuster deal, unexpected surges from teams that were once fringe contenders, and notable freefalls from squads that appeared legitimate. The MLB landscape is ever-changing, and with the trade deadline approaching on July 31, it may shift yet again. This Urgency Index 2.0 reflects a mix of immediate needs and projections—some based on objective analysis and others more subjective—about what might evolve over the next month.
Cal Raleigh continues to excel, carrying the Seattle Mariners' offense with an OPS significantly higher than the next-best regular. He deserves support, and fortunately, there are several avenues to acquire it. The Mariners have transitioned from Rowdy Tellez at first base, experimenting with a platoon of Luke Raley and Donovan Solano, while Dominic Canzone gets a shot in the corner outfield. With Jorge Polanco primarily serving as a designated hitter, there’s potential to upgrade both second base and third base. Seattle cannot rely solely on Raleigh for the next three months—though imagining if he does is tantalizing. Currently, they are clinging to the final wild card spot in a competitive American League. Adding a bat or two while achieving positive regression in the starting rotation could solidify Seattle's playoff position.
The Milwaukee Brewers were in need of offensive reinforcements last time we published this index, and while we were skeptical of their playoff chances, they have proven us wrong, boasting an 11-4 record entering Tuesday night. Now is the time for Milwaukee to enhance their left side of the defensive alignment—whether at shortstop, third base, or left field. Although the platoon of Isaac Collins and Jake Bauers in left has performed well, projection systems do not favor their long-term viability. The Brewers' lineup features too many league-average or below bats, which can limit their potential. Strengthening the offense could make them a formidable contender in October.
Meanwhile, the San Diego Padres have seen their playoff hopes dim in recent weeks, highlighting their urgent need for improvements in left field. While Gavin Sheets has improved their offensive numbers, the defensive compromise has raised concerns. With eight National League teams on track to win 87 games, some strong teams will find themselves on the outside looking in come October. This amplifies the importance of making strategic upgrades for the stretch run.
When we first published our Urgency Index, the New York Mets boasted a season-best playoff odds of 96.2 percent. However, recent weeks have seen the team struggle, culminating in a dismal series against the Pirates, where they were outscored 30-4. Despite this, we still trust the Mets' offense more than other teams on this list. However, the pitching staff is faltering, and the offense must carry a heavier load moving forward. With Mark Vientos and Francisco Alvarez underperforming, adding another infielder and possibly a center fielder could provide the necessary boost.
The San Francisco Giants, previously ranked No. 1 in our June assessment, have responded by acquiring Rafael Devers. This strategic move addresses their most pressing issue at first base, allowing Wilmer Flores to shift roles. While Casey Schmitt has stepped up at second base, concerns remain about the overall lineup's depth compared to other NL contenders.
The Mets' bullpen faced significant challenges in June, ranking 29th in ERA and Win Probability Added, despite closer Edwin Díaz performing admirably. The Mets need to bolster their bullpen, particularly seeking a left-handed setup man to fill the void left by the injured A.J. Minter. Given the relatively low cost of adding relievers at the trade deadline, the front office may consider multiple reinforcements essential.
The Philadelphia Phillies also struggle with a shaky bullpen, ranking 21st in ERA and 27th in WPA throughout June. Although the anticipated mid-August return of left-hander José Alvarado will help, he will be ineligible for the playoffs due to a PED suspension. With a substantial investment in their roster, the Phillies cannot afford a lackluster bullpen to derail their championship aspirations.
The Detroit Tigers, while enjoying a comfortable division lead, should consider acquiring a veteran high-leverage reliever to enhance their middle-of-the-pack bullpen performance. Focusing on bat-missing ability could be crucial, especially given their current strikeout rate.
Even the Tampa Bay Rays, typically known for their strong bullpen, find themselves struggling, ranking 16th in ERA and 24th in WPA. They may need to evaluate their bullpen and potentially make changes to ensure they can win tight games down the stretch.
The Chicago Cubs face challenges with their rotation, ranking near the bottom of the league in ERA and other key metrics. They urgently need to acquire a playoff-caliber starting pitcher. Cubs fans should hope for the Texas Rangers to falter, as their performance could impact the market for available arms.
The Toronto Blue Jays have experienced mixed results among their starters. While Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman have struggled, José Berríos has been consistent. Upgrading their fifth starter position may be necessary, but any new acquisition must be capable of contributing in the playoffs.
Despite a strong ERA ranking, the Mets' rotation faces uncertainty due to injuries. While they currently rank fourth in ERA, their performance away from home and injuries to key pitchers could necessitate improvements. Exploring options for reliable starting pitchers or promoting promising prospects could be essential as they navigate the remainder of the season.
As the trade deadline approaches, teams across the league are assessing their needs and potential avenues for improvement. The next few weeks will be critical for shaping the postseason landscape, and the urgency to make impactful moves has never been greater.
