A few years ago, the AFC was home to a talented group of young quarterbacks, including Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow. Among these standout players, Burrow emerged as a formidable competitor, guiding the Cincinnati Bengals to the Super Bowl during the 2021 season. He remains the only one in this elite group to have defeated Mahomes in the postseason. For those who believe in the significance of record books, Burrow and the Bengals should still be viewed as the primary rivals to Mahomes and the Chiefs in the AFC. However, Burrow's recent trajectory has left many feeling he is becoming an afterthought in this discussion.
Despite not showing any decline in his skills, Burrow's performance has been hindered by the Bengals' lack of playoff appearances since the 2022 season. This downturn can be attributed to a series of slow starts and devastating injuries to their star quarterback. Currently, Burrow is expected to miss at least three months following surgery to repair a severe turf toe injury sustained in Week 2. As the Bengals' season appears to stagnate, the $275 million quarterback faces the unsettling prospect of potentially missing the prime years of his career.
This marks the fifth major injury Burrow has encountered since the Bengals selected him in the 2020 NFL Draft. His rookie season ended prematurely after just 10 games due to a torn ACL, MCL, PCL, and meniscus, which required extensive surgery and rehabilitation. In 2021, Burrow made a comeback, playing through a dislocated pinky on his throwing hand as he led the team to the Super Bowl. However, his injury woes didn’t stop there. In early 2022, he dealt with knee pain and subsequently sprained his MCL during the Super Bowl loss. Later that season, he underwent an emergency appendectomy, which sidelined him for most of training camp. In 2023, Burrow faced further setbacks, including a strained calf and, most recently, a torn ligament in his right wrist, resulting in another season-ending injury.
While Burrow still has a chance to return this season if the Bengals remain competitive, the reality is that he will likely play fewer games than ever before. To date, Burrow has participated in 71 out of a possible 85 games in his NFL career, giving him an availability rate of 84 percent. While this may seem reasonable, it falls short compared to his peers: Lamar Jackson has played in 89 percent of his games, while both Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes boast an impressive 96 percent availability.
If Burrow misses the next 12 games but returns in Week 15, he could finish the season having played in only 74 of 100 possible games, resulting in a 74 percent availability rate. This statistic becomes concerning when compared to former Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who retired after seven seasons, having played in 77 percent of his games due to similar injury struggles. Falling below Luck's benchmarks is not an ideal scenario for any quarterback.
Burrow's injury history cannot be separated from the Bengals' roster-building strategies, particularly their failure to adequately protect him. His latest injury occurred on a play where he took a significant hit. In the 15 dropbacks before leaving the game, Burrow was sacked twice and hit five times. “It’s a little sickening,” remarked left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. after the game. Unfortunately, this pattern is not new; the Bengals' offensive line has consistently ranked poorly in pass block win rates since Burrow's arrival. They finished last in the league last season, with their best ranking in the past five years being 20th.
This lack of protection has led to Burrow becoming one of the most sacked quarterbacks in the NFL since 2020, sitting just behind Russell Wilson. While Wilson has one of the longest times to throw in the league, Burrow has one of the shortest, meaning he endures substantial hits even when releasing the ball quickly. Unlike Wilson, who has played for multiple teams and has a playing style contributing to his high sack numbers, Burrow has faced constant pressure in Cincinnati without any relief.
Burrow's entry into the NFL came without a significant injury history. Most of his injuries have resulted directly from the hits he has taken. In his rookie year, he was already sacked 32 times in just 10 games, and since then, the team has failed to improve the offensive line situation meaningfully. The Bengals have prioritized building their offensive line through the draft, but the results have been disappointing. Since 2011, they have drafted 22 offensive linemen, with only one, Clint Boling, signing a second contract with the team.
This past offseason, the Bengals made minor moves to address their offensive line's shortcomings, such as signing interior lineman Lucas Patrick and guard Dalton Risner. However, both players have not significantly improved the line's performance. The Bengals' reluctance to invest in a solid offensive line stands in stark contrast to other successful franchises that prioritize their quarterback's protection. The organization’s incremental approach to upgrading the line feels increasingly misaligned with the reality of having a franchise quarterback who has faced multiple significant injuries.
Despite the challenges, the Bengals may still find a way to navigate the season. Backup quarterback Jake Browning has shown he can step in effectively, having led the team to a 4-3 record after taking over for Burrow in 2023. The team also benefits from a strong start, with a 2-0 record, which is a marked improvement from previous seasons. However, even if the Bengals can keep their heads above water, the reality remains that the majority of this season is set to be spent treading water, trying to reach a point of competitiveness.
Burrow's career trajectory is beginning to mirror this struggle. Although he has not faltered as a player, his contemporaries are enjoying milestone victories and playoff experiences while he is left to contend with injuries and a lack of offensive line support. With the possibility of earning a third Comeback Player of the Year award looming, Burrow's narrative remains one of resilience amid adversity as he strives to find a way back to the top.
