The Athletic is providing comprehensive live coverage of the highly anticipated match between England and Italy in the semifinals of the 2025 UEFA Women’s Euros. This clash not only marks a critical moment in the tournament but also highlights some intriguing dynamics within international women’s football in Europe.
Currently, there are two notable paradoxes in the realm of women’s football in Europe. First, while the overall quality of the game continues to improve year after year, it is challenging to pinpoint any individual team that has significantly advanced compared to others. The established hierarchy remains intact. The six favorites entering Euro 2022—England, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden—are the same six favorites heading into Euro 2025. This consistency raises questions about the development of the so-called ‘other’ nations, which have yet to break into the ranks of the favorites.
The second paradox relates to the performance of these outsiders. Though they have shown marked improvement in their competitiveness against the favorites—evidenced by the absence of large-margin defeats in recent tournaments—their ability to secure victories remains elusive. The statistics highlight this trend clearly. At Euro 2022, there were 16 matches involving one of the ‘big six’ against the remaining teams, resulting in 15 wins for the favorites and just a single draw. This solitary draw occurred when Iceland scored a penalty in the dying moments of a group-stage match against France, who had already secured their top spot. France’s manager, Corinne Diacre, later admitted that the draw “wasn’t that important given the situation.” It’s reasonable to conjecture that, had France needed to win, they would have done so.
The narrative has not shifted significantly for Euro 2025. In the 11 matches played between favorites and outsiders, the favorites have claimed 10 victories. Only Denmark managed to hold their opponents to a one-goal margin, with losses to Sweden (1-0) and Germany (2-1) leading to their elimination after just two matches. Despite their efforts, Denmark’s record against the favorites in recent tournaments is disheartening: 27 matches played, with zero wins, one draw, and 26 losses. This statistic certainly dampens the excitement for viewers hoping to witness surprising outcomes in the tournament.
On Tuesday in Geneva, Italy faces England in a match that presents their final opportunity to deliver a genuine shock at this European Championship. It is somewhat disheartening to view Italy as underdogs, particularly given their historical successes in the 1990s. However, as other nations have invested more resources into women’s football, Italy has stagnated and consequently fallen behind. The Italian women’s football landscape remains somewhat enigmatic, with most national team players competing domestically and limited representation in the latter stages of the Champions League.
Insights from Rita Guarino, a manager with four Serie A titles, suggest that the English football model, particularly the Women’s Super League, is viewed as a blueprint for improvement. Italy is even considering a bid to host the next tournament, inspired by the success of Euro 2022. While it might seem patronizing to label Italy as underdogs, the prevailing trend in this tournament has been for teams to acknowledge the strength of their opponents.
Italy is well-suited to embrace the underdog role. Despite the talents of playmaker Manuela Giugliano, they may struggle to dominate the match against England. However, they possess robust center-backs who thrive in physical confrontations, full-backs delivering quality crosses, and attacking midfielders capable of direct runs. Additionally, they feature a significant penalty-box presence in Cristiana Girelli. Their performance against Spain in the group stage hinted at their potential to challenge England, especially through counter-attacks.
Should Italy secure a victory against England, it would resonate beyond their own nation, representing a significant triumph for all teams outside the established elite of the ‘big six’ in women’s football.
(Top photo: Daniela Porcelli/Getty Images)
