Last season, Grant Holmes emerged as a remarkable talent, boasting an impressive 85 ERA-, 81 FIP-, and 87 xFIP-. His performance was particularly notable during June and July when he recorded an exceptional 21/5 K/BB ratio over 23 1/3 innings as a long reliever. Fans rallied behind the notion of giving Holmes more starts, especially after his phenomenal initial outings. However, as the season progressed, his numbers fluctuated, culminating in a 98 xFIP- during the last 23 1/3 innings, which included a blend of short relief appearances, long relief outings, and three starts.
Projections indicated that Holmes possessed the potential to perform at an average starter level, making him a candidate for a swingman role. This was particularly impressive considering he was a 28-year-old rookie last season. With such promise, expectations were high for his role in the rotation this year. Unfortunately, the outcomes so far have not aligned with those hopes.
In his latest performances, Holmes faced a tough outing against the Dodgers, which is understandable given their offensive prowess. However, his overall statistics since that game reveal a concerning 17/10 K/BB ratio across 17 1/3 innings. His highest xFIP- in a start has been 113 against the Phillies, indicating that his struggles have persisted.
Last season, Holmes demonstrated fantastic command of his breaking pitches, but this year has proven to be a challenge. His command issues have affected his overall performance, leading to subpar results in a vacuum. A particularly disappointing aspect is the effectiveness of his slider, which appears to have a promising pitch shape but has suffered due to his inability to consistently locate it. Additionally, his curveball has experienced similar command issues, although it has not been as severely affected as the slider.
While one might argue that expecting more than fifth-starter, replacement-level pitching from Holmes may have been overly ambitious, the disappointment remains palpable. Nonetheless, the season is still young, and there is a glimmer of hope; Holmes has recently achieved good results in three consecutive starts. This could be a unique situation where his peripherals may eventually align with his outcomes, rather than the other way around.
Record: 8-13
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA: .368 / .374 (Season rank: 18th | 11th)
Yesterday’s wOBA and xwOBA allowed: .251 / .309 (Season rank: 20th | 21st)
Record when out-xwOBAing: 6-5 (League: 244-81)
Record when out-xwOBAed: 2-8 (League: 81-244)
Record when out-wOBAing: 8-2 (League: 278-48)
Record when out-wOBAed: 0-11 (League: 48-278)
Record when outhomering: 4-2 (League: 176-46)
Record when outhomered: 0-7 (League: 46-176)
As the season unfolds, fans and analysts alike will be keeping a close watch on Grant Holmes and his development on the mound. With the potential for improvement and a long season ahead, there is hope yet for a turnaround in his performance.
