In a disappointing turn of events for Indiana basketball, the team will once again watch the NCAA tournament from home. For the second straight season, the Hoosiers found themselves on the wrong side of the selection committee's final verdict, finishing as the second team out of the tournament field. Frustration mounted among fans as they watched teams like North Carolina secure spots, but the committee had its reasons for the positioning of Indiana University (IU) in the selection process.
At the heart of why Mike Woodson’s last Indiana team missed out on March Madness lies a simple yet significant issue: a lack of valuable wins. Over the course of 32 games this season, the Hoosiers managed to secure only three victories against teams that eventually made it to the NCAA tournament. One of those wins was against SIU-Edwardsville, which earned an automatic bid from the Ohio Valley Conference (OVC).
Moreover, while IU achieved a season sweep over Ohio State, the Buckeyes' early exit from the Big Ten tournament diminished the value of those victories. Indiana's only two wins against teams of comparable caliber for tournament consideration came against Michigan State and Purdue. As the season progressed, missed opportunities against teams like Maryland, Michigan, UCLA, Purdue in West Lafayette, and Oregon loomed large, with any one of those losses potentially able to change the Hoosiers’ fate.
Another factor that hindered Indiana basketball's chances was the lack of "bid thieves" during the conference tournaments. Most mid-major conferences maintained their expected outcomes, which solidified the positions of teams already set for the tournament. For instance, VCU won the Atlantic 10, while Memphis overcame upset-minded opponents to secure its spot in the NCAA tournament.
Keith Gill, vice chair of the tournament selection committee, noted in a CBS broadcast that a contingency vote was held the previous evening. This vote determined that North Carolina would have been excluded had UAB upset Memphis. With Memphis holding firm, North Carolina was granted a spot, despite a season riddled with struggles.
The debate surrounding the selection process often boils down to the eye test versus analytical metrics. This year, metrics favored North Carolina over Indiana. While Indiana, Texas, and Xavier were ranked in the 40s in KenPom, UNC was positioned at No. 33. Additionally, North Carolina ranked No. 36 in the NET, surpassing the other three teams.
This discrepancy raises questions, especially considering that the Tar Heels finished with a dismal 1-12 record in Quad 1 games and managed only one win against a tournament team throughout the season. The analysis indicates that Indiana basketball's nonconference schedule may have ultimately cost them a spot in the NCAA tournament.
As anticipated, Indiana's conservative approach to its nonconference schedule came back to haunt the team. The Hoosiers participated in their first Battle 4 Atlantis but did not aggressively pursue stronger competition outside of the Big Ten. Their lone home game against South Carolina, a team that struggled in the SEC, proved inadequate in bolstering their resume.
Blowout losses against top-tier teams like Louisville and Gonzaga set a troubling tone for the season, with a consolation win against Providence offering little value compared to the South Carolina game. Although Indiana had four Quad 1 wins compared to North Carolina's one, the Tar Heels' challenging nonconference schedule likely inflated their overall metrics.
While there is a compelling argument for Indiana’s inclusion over certain teams, the scrutiny surrounding North Carolina’s selection will likely persist. The reality is that being on the bubble reflects inherent flaws that a team has failed to address throughout the season. As discussed, winning any of the several close games lost by Indiana could have altered their postseason fate.
As the focus now shifts to the future, all eyes are on Scott Dolson and the upcoming coaching decisions. The Indiana basketball program stands at a crossroads, and how they navigate this pivotal moment will define their trajectory in the seasons to come.
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