The most critical moment in Tuesday's American League Division Series Game 3 is set to unfold in the top of the first inning, just three batters into the game. This pivotal matchup will see Vladimir Guerrero Jr. face off against Yankees starter Carlos Rodón. This encounter isn't merely a product of Guerrero's historical performance against the Yankees or his notorious declaration about never playing for them—“no, not even dead”—but rather a compelling statistic: Rodón has faced Guerrero 21 times without recording a single strikeout.
In their previous encounters, Guerrero has accumulated a remarkable record against Rodón, boasting 10 hits, four walks, and an impressive .588/.667/.941 batting line. This extraordinary performance includes only four swings and misses from the 78 pitches Guerrero has seen from the Yankees' lefty. Notably, only 19 percent of these pitches have come in a two-strike count, significantly lower than Rodón's season rate of 31 percent.
While much of Guerrero's success has occurred at Rogers Centre, where 15 of their plate appearances took place, it’s essential to note that they have also faced off six times at Yankee Stadium. In those matchups, Guerrero has reached base every time, recording two walks and four hits, including a home run. This matchup is unique; Rodón is the only pitcher against whom Guerrero has faced more than 16 times without striking out, and conversely, Guerrero is the only batter Rodón has faced at least 15 times without recording a strikeout. This anomaly adds an intriguing layer to their upcoming confrontation.
While Guerrero's batting average of .588 against Rodón is impressive, it’s important to recognize the role of luck in batting averages. Guerrero's expected batting average against Rodón sits at .392, which is excellent but significantly lower than his actual average. Such discrepancies can arise from fortunate hits, such as a broken bat resulting in a double. This scenario highlights the unpredictability of pitcher-batter matchups; while historical performance is informative, it is not always predictive.
Despite Guerrero's generally lower strikeout rate, he has still recorded at least 90 strikeouts in all five of his full MLB seasons. The fact that Rodón has failed to strike him out, where others like Lance Lynn have succeeded in similar situations, raises eyebrows. This season, Guerrero has also seen pitches from 25 different pitchers, including some top aces like Jacob deGrom and Garrett Crochet. His bat speed has varied, with faster swings correlating to better performance. When Guerrero's bat speed reaches 79 mph or higher, he has achieved a remarkable .363 batting average with a .708 slugging percentage.
Rodón is known for his power fastball, but his two most effective pitches against righties this year are his slider and changeup, boasting whiff rates of 38% and 35%, respectively. However, in his career against Guerrero, Rodón has thrown these pitches 30 times, resulting in just one swing-and-miss—a foul tip on a hanging slider. The majority of Rodón's pitches have been out of the strike zone, with Guerrero showing remarkable discipline by swinging at only 11% of those offerings.
As they prepare for Game 3, the stakes are high for both Guerrero and Rodón. Guerrero has consistently found himself in advantageous positions against Rodón, having been ahead 1-0 in all six matchups this season. This advantage enables Guerrero to be more selective, pushing Rodón to throw strikes. Despite Rodón's prowess as one of the league's top left-handed pitchers, his lack of success against Guerrero thus far places pressure on him to reverse this trend.
Ultimately, while Rodón's past performance against Guerrero is noteworthy, the outcome of their next encounter remains uncertain. A single strikeout would serve as a significant milestone for Rodón as he attempts to gain the upper hand against Guerrero in this critical playoff matchup.
