As the Fantasy Baseball season approaches, we've dedicated several months to discussing the draft pool, including sleepers, breakouts, category specialists, and priority positions. Now, it's time to evaluate which insights resonated with Fantasy Baseball enthusiasts and identify any missed opportunities. To gauge public sentiment, I conducted a survey across my Twitter and Facebook platforms, asking eight key questions. Here’s a breakdown of the responses and my analysis.
Who are the players Fantasy Baseball enthusiasts believe are essential this year? Last year's top three included Oneil Cruz, Cole Ragans, and a tie between Juan Soto, Royce Lewis, and Triston Casas. Surprisingly, Cruz, who led in both 2023 and 2024, dropped significantly, receiving only three votes this year. The decline in support likely stems from his previous underperformance, while his current average draft position (ADP) suggests he’s being valued higher than before. On the other hand, Robbie Ray topped the responses, buoyed by his strong spring training performance and reasonable pricing as a former Cy Young winner.
Other notable names gaining traction include Bo Bichette, Junior Caminero, Jordan Westburg, Lawrence Butler, and Spencer Schwellenbach, all of whom have been frequently discussed on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast. I still see Bichette as an exceptional value outside the 100th pick, while I find the current prices for Westburg, Butler, and Schwellenbach justifiable due to their potential.
My personal favorite for this category is Isaac Paredes, who I anticipate will emerge as a solid third baseman thanks to his transition to Daikin Park in Houston, despite his current ADP being around pick 175.
When it comes to identifying breakout pitchers, last year's top three were Tarik Skubal, Bobby Miller, and Eury Perez. This year, Gavin Williams has emerged as a hot prospect, showcasing improved mechanics and velocity after overcoming an elbow injury. He's currently being drafted around the 180 range and is considered a dark horse Cy Young candidate.
Cristopher Sanchez has also generated interest due to his impressive spring performance, marked by increased velocity and maintained control. Other potential breakout pitchers mentioned include Casey Mize, Clay Holmes, and Ryan Weathers. My choice for this category is Gavin Williams, thanks to his promising spring training.
In the realm of early-round selections, last year's most avoided players included Luis Robert, Elly De La Cruz, and Bo Bichette. This year, respondents have voiced concerns over players like Rafael Devers, Jazz Chisholm, and Freddie Freeman, primarily due to health-related issues. While Devers' situation appears complicated, I believe he's still a viable option after transitioning to the DH role.
Chisholm's potential for a high-homer and steal pace is enticing, while Freeman has consistently proven his worth despite nagging injuries. The players I would personally avoid are Jacob deGrom and Oneil Cruz, both of whom have raised red flags regarding their performance and consistency.
When looking for cheap power hitters, last year's top three were Jake Burger, Jorge Soler, and Nolan Gorman. Interestingly, the top two from last year remain in the conversation, indicating they haven't elevated their status significantly. Brandon Lowe offers a more affordable alternative, with potential to become a top-tier second baseman if he remains healthy.
However, I want to highlight Ryan Mountcastle as my go-to for cheap power. With a previous record of 33 home runs and favorable changes to the left field fence, I'm expecting a return to 30-plus homers this season.
In terms of speed, last year's top three included Jarren Duran, Esteury Ruiz, and Maikel Garcia. Respondents have shifted their focus this year, considering players like Dylan Crews, Victor Robles, and Xavier Edwards. While Edwards has shown potential at the plate, his speed alone may not suffice in today's game.
Nico Hoerner stands out as an excellent late-round target, combining speed with a likely boost in batting average. Additionally, Cedric Mullins presents a great value pick outside the top 200, especially in five-outfielder formats. My top recommendation for cheap speed remains Nico Hoerner.
Last year, the most critical positions to fill early were outfield, starting pitcher, and second base. This year, there's no clear consensus, but many respondents emphasize the importance of first base, particularly in shallower leagues. The depth of each position can vary significantly based on the league format, making a strategic approach essential.
Regardless of format, I believe that starting pitcher isn’t a high priority early in the draft, as there are ample options available at various stages. My personal choice for a critical position to fill early is first base.
When it comes to closers at risk of losing their jobs, last year’s top three included Carlos Estevez, Craig Kimbrel, and a tie between Adbert Alzolay and Jose Alvarado. This year, Robert Suarez has garnered attention, though I believe he still has a secure role for now. On the other hand, Alexis Diaz presents a more significant concern due to his fluctuating performance metrics.
Many respondents voiced valid worries regarding other closers such as David Bednar, Tanner Scott, and Carlos Estevez, all of whom have uncertainties surrounding their roles. My choice for the most concerning closer is Alexis Diaz.
Lastly, when considering prospects likely to make an impact this year, last year’s top three were Jackson Chourio, Jackson Holliday, and Wyatt Langford. Several responses indicated a lack of knowledge about true prospects, leading to skewed results. However, I believe that players like Dylan Crews and Jasson Dominguez could have made a more significant impact if respondents recognized their prospect status.
Overall, the cautious approach to drafting rookies appears to be a reasonable response to past disappointments. As we move forward, it's essential to keep an eye on emerging talents while balancing caution with potential.
