On Thursday, a significant event unfolded in the ACC Tournament that could potentially impact both ends of the bracket. Duke's All-American freshman, Cooper Flagg, suffered a sprained ankle during the first half of the Blue Devils' victory over Georgia Tech in the ACC quarterfinals. While the extent of his injury remains uncertain, Duke's head coach, Jon Scheyer, expressed considerable pessimism regarding Flagg's availability for the crucial semifinal against North Carolina on Friday.
This development raises two critical questions for the NCAA tournament landscape: If North Carolina triumphs over Duke, will it influence the Blue Devils' seed? Additionally, should the Tar Heels win but fail to capture the ACC title, will the selection committee overlook this victory when determining their tournament fate?
To clarify what the committee will not do, it will refrain from speculating that the outcome of the game would differ had both teams been at full strength. The final score remains definitive. A victory for North Carolina would likely secure them a spot in the tournament bracket, while Duke would still maintain its status as a No. 1 seed, even in the event of a loss.
However, a significant factor that could alter Duke’s seed is if Flagg is ruled out for the season. If the selection committee deems that the Blue Devils are sufficiently weakened without their star player, it could prompt a re-evaluation of their seeding. Historical precedence exists for such a scenario. In 2000, Cincinnati, led by National Player of the Year Kenyon Martin, lost him to a broken leg early in their conference tournament. The Bearcats subsequently lost the game, and the committee, recognizing their diminished capacity without Martin, assigned them a No. 2 seed instead of the overall No. 1. Cincinnati was eliminated in the second round that year.
While it's unlikely that a determination regarding Flagg's season status will be made before Selection Sunday, the situation is not directly comparable to the Cincinnati case from 2000. Still, for Duke fans, there is a palpable concern regarding the team’s prospects if Flagg's injury proves to be long-lasting.
In the realm of bracketology, notable changes have occurred, particularly at the top of the bracket. Texas Tech has replaced Texas A&M as a No. 2 seed following the Aggies' loss to Texas in the SEC Tournament. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders secured a victory over Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament, solidifying their position.
As for the bubble teams, only four remain in contention. Boise State secured a win over San Diego State in a critical double bubble game on Thursday and will face top seed New Mexico in the Mountain West semifinal on Friday. The other Mountain West bubble team still alive is Colorado State, which will compete against Utah State in the other semifinal.
Additionally, Texas has re-entered the bubble discussion following their victory over Texas A&M, setting up a matchup against Tennessee in their next SEC Tournament contest. While there are no new teams added to the bracket this morning, some shuffling has occurred among the last four teams in. Xavier is now the last team in after their defeat to Marquette in the Big East Tournament, with San Diego State just ahead of them. Notably, North Carolina is leading the list of teams in the first four out category.
