The highly anticipated matchup between the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and the Duke Blue Devils is set to take place in Durham, NC at 7 p.m. ET, and will be broadcast live on ESPN. Duke enters this game as a significant favorite, with a spread of -19.5 points and a moneyline of -5000. The total points for this matchup is set at 144 points. Here’s a detailed breakdown of the predictions and betting insights for the Wake Forest vs. Duke game.
Based on the current analysis, my pick for the Wake Forest vs. Duke game is Duke -20.5. The best odds can be found at DraftKings for this matchup. If you're looking for the latest lines for your college basketball bets, be sure to check out our live NCAAB odds page which provides real-time updates.
Here are the latest betting odds for the Wake Forest vs. Duke game:
Spread: Duke -19.5 Over/Under: 144 points Moneyline: Duke -5000, Wake Forest +1600 Best Bet: Duke -20.5In their previous encounter back in January, Wake Forest came close to pulling off an upset against Duke, leading by six points with less than nine minutes remaining. Despite Duke initially establishing a 15-point lead, they faltered due to a remarkable shooting slump, missing their first 13 shots in the second half and going through a stretch of 1-for-18.
If not for that unusual shooting performance, Duke would likely have secured a more comfortable victory. Entering this rematch, I anticipate that Duke will perform much better. The schematic matchup heavily favors Duke, which boasts the nation's top-ranked defense. The Blue Devils are equipped with versatile defenders capable of dominating across all positions, particularly at the rim with stars like Cooper Flagg and Khaman Maluach.
To effectively challenge Duke's defense, teams typically need to create spacing through off-ball screening and dribble handoff actions. However, Wake Forest struggles in this regard, ranking last in the ACC with a mere 31% shooting percentage from beyond the arc and a low 3-point rate of 30% (according to KenPom). The Demon Deacons primarily score through individual drives and post feeds, a strategy that is unlikely to succeed against Duke's formidable switching defense.
In their first matchup, Wake Forest managed only 56 points, and I expect a similar offensive output in this rematch. On the offensive end, Duke's motion-based attack relies on stagger screen sets to create open shots. Conversely, Wake Forest's interior defense is compact but vulnerable, allowing a 47% 3-point rate (per KenPom) and struggling to defend against off-ball screening (allowing .96 points per possession, 38th percentile, per Synergy).
Despite having a solid interior presence, Wake Forest's center Efton Reid III finds it challenging to defend in space, which can lead to exposure in their defensive rotations. Therefore, as long as Duke avoids another poor shooting night like their previous 9-for-32 (28%) from 3-point range, I foresee them capitalizing on Wake Forest’s weaknesses. Expect a more focused performance from the Blue Devils at home, leading to what looks like a convincing victory.
In conclusion, with the current form of both teams and the matchup dynamics, I strongly support Duke to dominate this game against Wake Forest.
