As the MLB Draft approaches, teams are actively engaging in check-ins, particularly focusing on the top half of the opening round. This time of year elicits responses such as, “We’re looking to see who might make the best deal.” The signability work is intensifying, especially in a year characterized by ambiguity, as organizations conduct thorough due diligence to identify players who can save them the most money when picking early.
Despite the buzz around potential big deals, recent history suggests that few significant trades occur at the top of the Draft. While this doesn’t eliminate the possibility of trades, I’m hesitant to dive into most bargain-related rumors in this almost-final mock draft. My objective is to provide accurate predictions and present viable options for each pick as the clock ticks down, fully aware that many decisions are still pending.
The Washington Nationals are still evaluating a broad range of candidates. As discussed in the latest MLB Pipeline Podcast, it seems to be narrowing down to two primary prospects: Anderson and Ethan Holliday. Currently, the odds for Anderson being selected stand at 50 percent, with Holliday at 40 percent. However, I might adjust Anderson's odds to 60 percent based on intuition, given the uncertainty surrounding the recent dismissal of GM Mike Rizzo, which could influence the organization’s strategy.
The Los Angeles Angels may deviate from their recent trend of selecting advanced college players and instead consider one of the top high school shortstops, with Eli Willits leading the charge. Nonetheless, selecting a college left-hander seems to be the most logical choice. If the Nationals choose Holliday, Anderson could become the Angels' target. With Anderson off the board, options like Grant Doyle and Jamie Arnold may emerge. Doyle's absence of a completed medical at the Draft Combine raises questions about his slot value, potentially leading to further savings for the Angels.
The Seattle Mariners are keeping a close eye on Anderson, though his selection here appears unlikely. If they decide to pursue a college right-hander, Kyson Witherspoon from Oklahoma and Tyler Bremner from Santa Barbara could be in play for a deal. While Hernandez fits the risky prep right-handed pitcher demographic, he might also be the best pitcher in this class. Should the Mariners pivot towards hitters, they may consider college prospects like Aiva Arquette from Oregon State or Irish.
For the St. Louis Cardinals, the interest in high school shortstops is palpable, especially with Carlson being a prime candidate. If they lean towards pitching, Arnold or Witherspoon could be on their radar. The Cardinals have a strong preference for Willits, who has garnered attention as a top talent in this class, alongside other prep shortstops like JoJo Parker and Billy Carlson.
The Miami Marlins have long been fans of Willits; however, if he's off the board, they might pivot to Carlson or Parker. Additionally, Irish remains a potential pick, and Arizona outfielder Brendan Summerhill has also been mentioned as a possibility. Arnold is frequently discussed as a strong arm in this scenario.
The Cincinnati Reds are in a “best available” mindset, making them a potential landing spot for Hernandez. If he is selected earlier, Irish and Witherspoon could be strong contenders, given their offensive upside. While Parker has been a frequent mention, the Reds are also exploring other high school options like Steele Hall, Gavin Fien, and Kayson Cunningham.
The Oakland Athletics might hope for top prep shortstops like Willits or Carlson to fall to them, although that seems unlikely. They seem to be leaning towards a position player, with Kilen being another potential quick-to-the-big-leagues college bat to join All-Star Jacob Wilson.
The Baltimore Orioles have the largest bonus pool, giving them the flexibility to choose from various directions. Currently, they lean towards hitters, with Fien’s pure hitting ability taking precedence over a power hitter like Xavier Neyens. College hitters such as Aloy or Jace LaViolette are also in the mix.
The Milwaukee Brewers have not selected a pitcher in the first round since 2019, suggesting they may be due for a pitching pick. If they stick with their trend of selecting hitters, players like Aloy and LaViolette could be considered. On the high school side, Cunningham or Neyens might be their pick.
For the Kansas City Royals, the interest in top prep lefty pitchers remains strong. If they opt for a high school hitter, candidates like Cunningham, Slater de Brun, Sean Gamble, and Josh Hammond are in contention. The Philadelphia Phillies, known for their preference for high school players, might surprise with a selection like the next best college catcher while keeping an eye on other college bats like Ethan Conrad.
The Cleveland Guardians may shift towards college hitters if the top 26 picks unfold favorably. They could consider prospects such as Conrad or Andrew Fischer, but in this scenario, Hammond’s offensive potential stands out as an intriguing option.
