The Washington Commanders (3-3) are set to face the Dallas Cowboys (2-3-1) in a crucial NFC East matchup this Sunday afternoon. Both teams are looking to bounce back after heartbreaking losses in their previous games. With the Philadelphia Eagles currently leading the division, this matchup is pivotal for both squads as they vie for a stronger position in the standings.
Last week, the Commanders fought valiantly against the Chicago Bears, overcoming a 13-0 deficit to take a 24-16 lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Bears rallied, scoring the last 10 points of the game, including a game-winning field goal in the final seconds, resulting in a 25-24 defeat for Washington. Despite the loss, Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has shown promise, throwing four touchdowns in the past two weeks after returning from a knee injury. Interestingly, Washington has often found itself trailing by double digits before finally scoring their first points in recent games.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys faced off against the Carolina Panthers last week, resulting in a 30-27 loss. The game saw Dallas go back and forth with Carolina before conceding a go-ahead field goal as time expired. This defeat marked the fourth time in their last five games that the Cowboys allowed at least 30 points. Dallas has also struggled defensively, being the only team in the league to give up an average of over 400 yards per game.
On the offensive side, the Cowboys have performed well at home, with exciting games played at AT&T Stadium. They previously outlasted the New York Giants in an overtime thriller, winning 40-37, and managed to tie the Green Bay Packers at 40-40 in another high-scoring affair. The return of wide receiver Ceedee Lamb, who is expected to play after a four-game absence due to an ankle injury, could further bolster their offensive capabilities.
Last season, the road team won both matchups between these two rivals. The Cowboys defeated the Commanders 34-26 in Washington, while the Commanders secured a late 23-19 victory in Arlington. Notably, both games were played without Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who was injured midway through the season. In the two wins over Washington from the previous season, Prescott threw four touchdown passes in each game.
When it comes to betting, Dallas has been strong against the spread, going 6-2 in their last eight opportunities as an underdog since November. However, seven of those covers came when they were an underdog by at least four points. This week, the odds favor Washington as a short favorite, with the best bet being Commanders -1.5 (-110), which is playable up to -2.5.
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Dallas has emerged as one of the top 'Over' teams in the NFL this season, currently at 4-2. The Cowboys rank third in the league in points per game while also allowing the most points per game. The only 'Under' for Dallas occurred during a 31-14 defeat against the Bears in Week 3. In contrast, Washington has consistently cashed the 'Under' in their last two games, with a season record of 4-2 to the Under.
In the four games that Jayden Daniels has started, the Commanders have gone 4-0 to the Under. This is a stark contrast to their previous two games with Marcus Mariota, where they scored 41 and 27 points, respectively. The Cowboys have scored 40 points in both home games this season, indicating a high-scoring potential for this matchup.
The total for this game has reached 55 at various sportsbooks, which is the highest total for Washington this season. With the anticipated return of Ceedee Lamb, the expectation is for a high-scoring encounter at AT&T Stadium. The recommended pick for this game is the Over 54.5 (-110), which is playable up to 55.5.
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