After a three-year hiatus from Churchill Downs, renowned trainer Bob Baffert is making a triumphant return. Baffert was banned from the prestigious Louisville track in 2021 following the controversial disqualification of his Kentucky Derby winner, Medina Spirit, due to a failed post-race blood test. Now, as a trainer with a record six Kentucky Derby victories, Baffert is back, although one of his two entries was scratched just days before the race. Despite this setback, his remaining horse still has a promising chance to compete for victory.
Handicapping the Kentucky Derby is a unique challenge, unlike any other race. None of the contenders has tackled the 10-furlong distance before, nor have they raced in a field as large as 20 horses. The chaotic atmosphere of the Derby, with its frenzied crowd, can dramatically alter pace scenarios as soon as the gates open. Traffic is almost inevitable, and sometimes, sheer luck outweighs skill in securing the coveted blanket of roses. In this overview, we will examine the running styles and performances of the contenders, aiming to identify horses that could provide strong payouts.
In post-position order, here's a detailed look at the contenders for the prestigious race, along with their morning line odds set on April 26. For the latest odds, be sure to visit our updating odds page.
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Martin Garcia
Morning line odds: 20-1
Citizen Bull is a standout among this year's three-year-olds, boasting four wins in five races, all in stakes events. However, a perplexing fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby raises concerns, especially since he struggled to maintain his lead down the stretch. If Citizen Bull fails to secure an early lead from the challenging post position 1, his chances of winning diminish significantly.
Owner: C2 Racing Stable, Ian Parsard, Shining Stables, Stefania Farms, Ken Reimer, Paul Braverman, and Timothy Pinch
Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 30-1
Despite being winless in graded stakes, Neoequos needs the lead to be competitive. However, his recent speed figures do not match up favorably against the competition, raising doubts about his ability to secure a top position in the crowded Derby field.
Owner: Juddmonte
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Luan Machado
Morning line odds: 30-1
With a stellar breeding background, Final Gambit has yet to race on dirt, making his entry into the Derby a curious choice. His impressive win in a Grade 3 race on turf raises questions about his performance on a different surface.
Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Dianne Bashor, Determined Stables, Robert Masterson, Tom Ryan, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Mike Smith
Morning line odds: Scratched
Rodriguez has been scratched from the race by Baffert, allowing alternate Baeza to enter the field.
Owner: BC Stables
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Nik Juarez
Morning line odds: 30-1
The legendary D. Wayne Lukas returns with American Promise, who has shown potential but has struggled to find his footing in graded stakes. While his last speed figure impressed, his history suggests he may need a stroke of luck to succeed in the Derby.
Owner: Junko Kondo
Trainer: Yukihiro Kato
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
Morning line odds: 30-1
Admire Daytona earned his Derby spot by winning the UAE Derby, demonstrating the rising status of Japanese-trained horses in international racing. However, the challenges of international travel and a lack of strong race records may hinder his chances of victory.
Owner: Koichi Nishikawa
Trainer: Noriyuki Hori
Jockey: João Moreira
Morning line odds: 15-1
This promising Japanese runner brings an impressive record to the Derby, having won several qualifying races. However, the transition to the Derby's competitive environment raises questions about his readiness for this high-stakes race.
Owner: Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Bridlewood Farm, Don Alberto Stable, Robert LaPenta, Elayne Stables 5, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Michael McCarthy
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
Morning line odds: 3-1
Having won four consecutive races, including three graded stakes, Journalism is the favorite for this year's Derby. His impressive speed figures and tactical running style position him as a strong contender for the title.
Owner: Whitham Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Morning line odds: 12-1
With two strong performances leading into the Derby, Burnham Square’s off-the-pace running style could provide an advantage, although his speed may not be enough to secure a top finish.
Owner: Repole Stable (Mike Repole)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: John Velazquez
Morning line odds: Scratched
Grande was scratched from the Derby lineup due to a foot bruise, leaving no alternates to fill the gap.
Owner: Two Eight Racing, Berry Family Racing, and Kaleta Racing
Trainer: Whit Beckman
Jockey: Joseph Ramos
Morning line odds: 30-1
Making his Derby debut after a second-place finish in a qualifying race, Flying Mohawk will face a significant challenge in his first dirt race against seasoned competitors.
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brendan Walsh
Jockey: Manuel Franco
Morning line odds: 20-1
East Avenue's fluctuating performance history raises concerns, particularly as he tends to prefer an early lead, which may not work in his favor against stronger opponents.
Owner: Gus King and Estate of Brereton C. Jones
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Morning line odds: 20-1
Publisher enters the Derby without a win in his seven starts, making him a long shot despite earning enough points to qualify for the race.
Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds, Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Morning line odds: 20-1
Tiztastic has struggled to maintain competitiveness as the stakes have risen. While his closing style may offer some opportunity, he has yet to find consistent success.
Owner: Baccari Racing Stable, Dream Walkin Farms, MJM Racing, Rocket Ship Racing, and Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek)
Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Morning line odds: 30-1
Despite McPeek's successful history in the Derby, Render Judgment has not been competitive recently and is dealing with a minor injury, adding to the skepticism surrounding his chances.
Owner: Norman Stables
Trainer: Lonnie Briley
Jockey: Juan Vargas
Morning line odds: 30-1
Coal Battle's consistent performance in listed stakes races suggests potential, but he will need to demonstrate an additional burst of speed to compete effectively.
Owner: D.J. Stable, St. Elias Stable, West Point Thoroughbreds, and CJ Stables
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: José Ortiz
Morning line odds: 6-1
Sandman, a well-bred colt with a strong racing record, has shown the ability to compete in top-level races. His late-closing style may work in his favor, positioning him for a solid finish in the Derby.
Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Morning line odds: 5-1
Sovereignty has a promising pedigree and a strong performance history. As a closer in a race filled with speed, he could capitalize on the chaos of the Derby.
Owner: Terry L. Stephens
Trainer: Ethan West
Jockey: Jareth Loveberry
Morning line odds: 30-1
Chunk of Gold, a long shot, has gained attention for his journey from a low-priced yearling to a competitive Derby contender. His off-the-pace running style adds intrigue to his potential performance.
Owner: Flying Dutchmen
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Javier Castellano
Morning line odds: 30-1
Owen Almighty’s recent struggles in his final prep raise concerns, particularly given his need for an early lead in the Derby's competitive environment.
Owner: C R K Stable and Grandview Equine
Trainer: John Shirreffs
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Morning line odds: 12-1
With Rodriguez scratched, Baeza enters the Derby from post position 20. He has demonstrated potential on dirt, but his inexperience could pose a challenge in such a high-stakes race.
As the excitement builds for the 151st Kentucky Derby, fans and bettors alike will be watching closely to see how Baffert's return and the unique challenges of this historic race unfold.
