NFL Projection Model continues to highlight the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens, and Buffalo Bills as the top contenders in the AFC. However, a surprising twist emerges: the model does not favor the three-time reigning AFC champion Chiefs as the conference favorites. Instead, the Buffalo Bills currently hold the top spot, followed closely by the Baltimore Ravens in second place, while the Kansas City Chiefs sit in a tight third. Despite this ranking, one must remember to never underestimate quarterback Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, who have impressively reached the AFC title game for seven consecutive years. As the season progresses, they may very well reclaim their position at the pinnacle of the AFC.
The top three teams have established themselves as the frontrunners, but several teams are lurking just below, eager to assert themselves as true contenders. Let’s delve into each division and assess the win total projections for all AFC teams heading into the 2025 NFL regular season.
The Buffalo Bills have dominated the AFC East ever since Tom Brady departed the New England Patriots for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Led by reigning MVP Josh Allen, the Bills are projected to continue their reign with a 74% chance of clinching a sixth consecutive division title. As long as Allen remains healthy, it’s difficult to envision a scenario where Buffalo doesn’t maintain its dominance in the East.
However, hope is not lost for the rest of the division. Under the leadership of coach Mike Vrabel, the New England Patriots are on the rise. My model predicts they will double their win total from 2024, thanks to a full offseason for emerging quarterback Drake Maye and significant roster upgrades. With the easiest schedule in the league according to projections, the Patriots have a solid opportunity to challenge the Bills.
Meanwhile, the Miami Dolphins are trending downward, struggling to compete with the Bills, but they are likely to finish above the New York Jets. Although new head coach Aaron Glenn brings optimism, the Jets are not yet prepared to contend early in his tenure, leaving fans with a challenging season ahead.
The AFC North houses two of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks: Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens and Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals. However, only Jackson’s Ravens possess a well-constructed roster, positioning them for a potential third straight division title. While both offenses are projected to excel, the Ravens' solid defense contrasts sharply with the Bengals' defense, which is expected to perform below average, hindering their chances of success.
My model favors the Ravens with a 55% chance to win the division, while the Bengals trail at 32%. Additionally, the Pittsburgh Steelers are projected as a fringe playoff team, thanks to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and coach Mike Tomlin’s knack for winning unexpected games. On the other hand, the Cleveland Browns are starting veteran Joe Flacco, but the uncertainty surrounding their quarterback situation could lead them to contend for a top-five pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
The AFC South is poised for one of the closest races in the NFL, featuring several intriguing teams but lacking a true Super Bowl contender. My model does not project any team in this division to win nine games on average. The Houston Texans have won the last two division titles, while the Jacksonville Jaguars previously won with nine victories. The inconsistency at quarterback across the division contributes to this parity.
The division race may hinge on whether Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud can return to his rookie form or replicate his disappointing sophomore season, where he struggled behind the league's worst offensive line. With a new offensive coordinator, Stroud is expected to improve, but if Houston falters, the Jaguars could seize the opportunity. Jacksonville's Trevor Lawrence also faces inconsistency but could thrive under new coach Liam Coen.
My model gives the Texans a 45% chance to win the division, while the Jaguars sit at 26%. The Indianapolis Colts are transitioning from the Anthony Richardson era to Daniel Jones, while the Tennessee Titans are handing the offense to first overall pick Cam Ward. Both teams may contend for top-10 draft picks, with the Colts slightly favored in projections.
The AFC West is arguably the strongest division in the NFL, featuring renowned coaches like Andy Reid of the Chiefs, Sean Payton of the Broncos, and Pete Carroll of the Raiders. The Chiefs are projected to win the division for the tenth consecutive year, having dominated since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to a Super Bowl victory in 2015. The Chargers last won the division in 2009, while the Raiders' drought extends back to 2002.
Despite being the favorites, the Chiefs have only a 60% chance to win the division, with the Broncos at 21% following a wild-card berth in 2024, thanks to a stellar rookie season from quarterback Bo Nix and a strong defense. The Chargers, also coming off a playoff appearance, face uncertainty due to a significant injury to offensive tackle Rashawn Slater, while quarterback Justin Herbert must elevate his performance to help break the division title drought.
Lastly, coach Pete Carroll leads the Raiders, who made a significant upgrade at quarterback with Geno Smith. Although the Raiders may not contend just yet, a solid performance from their offensive line could result in an exciting offense, with Smith likely targeting standout tight end Brock Bowers and rookie top-10 pick Ashton Jeanty in the ground game.
My NFL Projection Model utilizes play-by-play data to generate offensive and defensive projections for each team. By simulating the season 100,000 times, we can estimate how many games each team is expected to win, their playoff chances, and their likelihood of winning the division and the Super Bowl.
