The highly anticipated 2025 NBA playoffs are set to kick off on Saturday, featuring an exciting rematch from last year's first-round series. The 4-seed Indiana Pacers (50-32) will host the 5-seed Milwaukee Bucks (48-34) in the opening game of the day. This matchup is particularly intriguing as the Pacers triumphed over the Bucks in six games during last season's playoffs, even though Giannis Antetokounmpo missed that series due to injury. In contrast, the Bucks dominated the Pacers in the 2024-25 NBA regular season, winning three out of four encounters.
The first game is scheduled for tip-off at 1 p.m. ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, where the Pacers have an impressive home record of 29-12. As of now, Indiana is favored by 6 points according to the latest Pacers vs. Bucks odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, with an over/under set at 225 total points. Before placing any bets on the Bucks vs. Pacers matchup, it's essential to review the insights and predictions from NBA expert Matt Severance at SportsLine.
Matt Severance is a seasoned writer and handicapper with a wealth of experience in the sports industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, he quickly became one of the top experts across various sports. Over the last three NBA seasons, Severance has returned an impressive $4,452 for $100 bettors on all NBA picks. Furthermore, he enters this matchup with a remarkable 144-84-1 record, yielding a profit of +2553.75. Following his expert analysis can lead to significant betting returns.
The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game on a high note, riding an impressive eight-game winning streak, the longest in the league. They have successfully covered the spread in seven of those eight games, indicating they are peaking at the right time. Giannis Antetokounmpo has stepped up significantly as a point forward in the absence of Damian Lillard, showcasing his skills with four triple-doubles in his last five games. During this stretch, he is averaging 30.8 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 12 assists, shooting an impressive 59.6% from the field.
Moreover, the Bucks have had the upper hand in their previous regular-season meetings against Indiana, finishing with a 3-1 record and covering the spread in three out of four games. The only defeat came under controversial circumstances, adding an extra layer of intensity to this playoff rematch. Given Antetokounmpo's motivation to prove his elite status after struggling with injuries in recent postseasons, the Bucks are poised to make a strong showing.
The Indiana Pacers counter the Bucks' winning streak with a solid 7-1 record over their last eight games. It's worth noting that their only loss occurred in a game where key players, including Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner, were rested. The Pacers' home-court advantage is significant, as they have demonstrated strong performance at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. With the second-best home record in the Eastern Conference, their 29-12 mark surpasses that of the Boston Celtics.
Under head coach Rick Carlisle, the Pacers have consistently risen to the occasion against top-tier teams, covering in 60% of their games against opponents with a winning percentage above 55%. In contrast, the Bucks have struggled against such teams, with only a 41% success rate against the spread. Indiana's fast-paced offense ranks among the top 10 in points per game and offensive rating, potentially challenging the Bucks, who rank last in offensive rebounds and fourth-worst in steals.
As the playoffs begin, Severance has locked in his confident against-the-spread pick for the Pacers vs. Bucks matchup. While leaning towards the over on the total points, he emphasizes a critical X-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. For more detailed insights and to see which team Severance advises backing, head to SportsLine now before finalizing any bets.
